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Today's Zaman, Turkey
Jan 3 2012
2011: The top stories across the Caucasus
ZAUR SHIRIYEV
2011 was a year that destabilized many of our global perceptions,
notably with regard to the developments in the Middle East, which
demonstrated the transience of the `status quo' and the power of the
people to stand up against tyranny and injustice.
The media has heralded the unfinished revolution in the Middle East as
a digital or leaderless revolution, but it is more hesitant to discuss
the further implications of this lack of stability in terms of a
revolutionary leader. Bets are off on what should be considered the
great story of 2011, which has seen historic revolutions, their
turbulent aftermath and fierce debates.
But looking to a more regional focus in the context of the Caucasus,
we find other stories of equal local significance. For Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia, 2011 marked the 20th anniversary of regaining
independence from the Soviet Union. I have picked out the top 10
stories from the region, both successes and failures. In no particular
order, these are:
1. Azerbaijan's secured temporary seat on the UN Security Council
(UNSC), from Jan. 1, 2012 to Dec. 31, 2013. Azerbaijan's Oct. 24
election as a non-permanent member of the UNSC was important news both
within the country and across the region. Over the course of the
two-year term, Baku will have a responsibility to debate and vote on
matters of international security, war and peace in the world's
pre-eminent international forum. The continued Armenian occupation of
Nagorno-Karabakh will remain the key challenge, and the UN platform
will help Azerbaijan to gain more international support for the
diplomatic resolution of the conflict. Baku will not hurry this
process -- rather it will look strategically to the best possible
future outcome, also thinking about the post-UNSC period, maximizing
this diplomatic success.
2. `The bolshoi (big) dance in the energy opera.' This year,
Azerbaijan discovered new gas reserves in the Caspian Sea, and the
year has since seen intense discussions concerning the `energy opera':
Nabucco. The major development was the signing of an agreement by
Turkey on the construction of a new joint gas pipeline project, the
Trans Anadolu pipeline, which will stretch from Turkey's eastern
border to its western border, with the aim of exporting Azerbaijani
natural gas to Europe. 2011 showed that Azerbaijan has fully emerged
as a critical player in regional energy politics. The real challenge
will be whether `Nabucco' can become best known as a groundbreaking
gas pipeline rather than classic opera music.
3. The region engaged in cultural and scholarly dialogue at a higher
level. In 2011, Azerbaijan won the Eurovision Song Contest and hosted
several high-profile events. In 2012, due the Eurovision Song Contest,
there will be an influx of tourists to the region, boosting its
international profile. The International Humanitarian Forum in
October, held in Baku, was another key platform for discussions of
ethnic and religious differentiation across the region, unresolved
conflicts and resulting high-running tensions.
4. The continuation of unresolved conflicts: It has become almost
tradition in the region to say `next year the conflicts will be
resolved.' But this year has seen more diplomatic activity toward the
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, although the statements
and efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries' (the US,
France and Russia) presidents ultimately failed. Now, hopes for 2012
are dwindling. Furthermore, no progress has been made regarding the
South Ossetia and Abkhazian conflicts -- in both areas the separatist
authorities held elections. In August, after the untimely death of
President Sergei Bagapsh, extraordinary presidential elections in
secessionist Abkhazia elevated Aleksandr Ankvab to the position of
president of the breakaway republic. In November, secessionist South
Ossetia held a presidential election, which saw Alla Dzhioyeva as the
surprise winner over a Kremlin-backed candidate in the elections,
which were annulled by a South Ossetian court.
5. Georgia declared its aspirations to join NATO, which has brought
Georgia closer to NATO and intensified the Euro-Atlantic integration
of the region's countries. NATO's Bucharest Summit promise in 2008 to
eventually allow Georgia into the military alliance was declared
frozen following the August 2008 Russo-Georgian war, but 2011 saw NATO
officially name Georgia as an `aspirant' country in its communiqué
after the foreign ministers' meeting in December. Georgia is eager to
see a common position formed on the country among the alliance member
countries at NATO's Chicago summit on May 15-22, 2012.
6. This year marked Georgia's relinquishing of its veto of Russia's
accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the only one of the
153 WTO to do so. Now Georgia has signed an agreement with Russia
facilitating the conclusion of Russia's 18-year efforts to get into
the world trade club.
7. `Stop feeding the Caucasus'; a huge wave of ultra-nationalist
rallies under this slogan demanded a stop to the Russian financing of
the North Caucasus. This year, the situation in the North Caucasus
also became less stable. Also, this year, there was an ethnically
motivated movement in Moscow against workers from the Caucasus.
8. Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran have been tense for years,
but things got especially difficult this year. Indeed, Iran's fear or
paranoia of military strikes from the US or Israel -- set against
Azerbaijan's weakening trust of Iran has pushed it to strengthen its
relationship with Armenia. These developments indicate that Iran will
feel `in check' next year too, which will pose challenges for
Azerbaijan, as a member of the UNSC.
9. Georgian-born billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who wants to form
and head a major political opposition party in Georgia and hold a 2012
parliament election, is a real challenge to the current government
after the Rose Revolution, but Georgian authorities revoked his
citizenship. Anyway, announcement of Ivanishvili to go into politics
came as a surprise for many politicians in Georgia.
10. In Armenia, the opposition has become more influential, Levon Ter
Petrosyan, the main opposition leader and ex-president has got real
leverage, and due to this, the government appears more open to
dialogue with the opposition. Moreover, the former president of
Armenia, Robert Kocharian, who said shortly before leaving office in
2008 that he did not intend to become `Armenia's youngest pensioner'
signals a political comeback ahead of Armenia's next presidential
election due in 2013.
The regional identity of the South Caucasus remains a tricky question,
and thus choosing stories with a `regional' character is not always
easy. But what is clear, as is repeated many times by experts, the
most discussed and most significant issues of 2012 will be the
elections in Armenia and Georgia, as well as in the OSCE Minsk Group
Co-Chairs.
From: Baghdasarian
Jan 3 2012
2011: The top stories across the Caucasus
ZAUR SHIRIYEV
2011 was a year that destabilized many of our global perceptions,
notably with regard to the developments in the Middle East, which
demonstrated the transience of the `status quo' and the power of the
people to stand up against tyranny and injustice.
The media has heralded the unfinished revolution in the Middle East as
a digital or leaderless revolution, but it is more hesitant to discuss
the further implications of this lack of stability in terms of a
revolutionary leader. Bets are off on what should be considered the
great story of 2011, which has seen historic revolutions, their
turbulent aftermath and fierce debates.
But looking to a more regional focus in the context of the Caucasus,
we find other stories of equal local significance. For Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia, 2011 marked the 20th anniversary of regaining
independence from the Soviet Union. I have picked out the top 10
stories from the region, both successes and failures. In no particular
order, these are:
1. Azerbaijan's secured temporary seat on the UN Security Council
(UNSC), from Jan. 1, 2012 to Dec. 31, 2013. Azerbaijan's Oct. 24
election as a non-permanent member of the UNSC was important news both
within the country and across the region. Over the course of the
two-year term, Baku will have a responsibility to debate and vote on
matters of international security, war and peace in the world's
pre-eminent international forum. The continued Armenian occupation of
Nagorno-Karabakh will remain the key challenge, and the UN platform
will help Azerbaijan to gain more international support for the
diplomatic resolution of the conflict. Baku will not hurry this
process -- rather it will look strategically to the best possible
future outcome, also thinking about the post-UNSC period, maximizing
this diplomatic success.
2. `The bolshoi (big) dance in the energy opera.' This year,
Azerbaijan discovered new gas reserves in the Caspian Sea, and the
year has since seen intense discussions concerning the `energy opera':
Nabucco. The major development was the signing of an agreement by
Turkey on the construction of a new joint gas pipeline project, the
Trans Anadolu pipeline, which will stretch from Turkey's eastern
border to its western border, with the aim of exporting Azerbaijani
natural gas to Europe. 2011 showed that Azerbaijan has fully emerged
as a critical player in regional energy politics. The real challenge
will be whether `Nabucco' can become best known as a groundbreaking
gas pipeline rather than classic opera music.
3. The region engaged in cultural and scholarly dialogue at a higher
level. In 2011, Azerbaijan won the Eurovision Song Contest and hosted
several high-profile events. In 2012, due the Eurovision Song Contest,
there will be an influx of tourists to the region, boosting its
international profile. The International Humanitarian Forum in
October, held in Baku, was another key platform for discussions of
ethnic and religious differentiation across the region, unresolved
conflicts and resulting high-running tensions.
4. The continuation of unresolved conflicts: It has become almost
tradition in the region to say `next year the conflicts will be
resolved.' But this year has seen more diplomatic activity toward the
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, although the statements
and efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries' (the US,
France and Russia) presidents ultimately failed. Now, hopes for 2012
are dwindling. Furthermore, no progress has been made regarding the
South Ossetia and Abkhazian conflicts -- in both areas the separatist
authorities held elections. In August, after the untimely death of
President Sergei Bagapsh, extraordinary presidential elections in
secessionist Abkhazia elevated Aleksandr Ankvab to the position of
president of the breakaway republic. In November, secessionist South
Ossetia held a presidential election, which saw Alla Dzhioyeva as the
surprise winner over a Kremlin-backed candidate in the elections,
which were annulled by a South Ossetian court.
5. Georgia declared its aspirations to join NATO, which has brought
Georgia closer to NATO and intensified the Euro-Atlantic integration
of the region's countries. NATO's Bucharest Summit promise in 2008 to
eventually allow Georgia into the military alliance was declared
frozen following the August 2008 Russo-Georgian war, but 2011 saw NATO
officially name Georgia as an `aspirant' country in its communiqué
after the foreign ministers' meeting in December. Georgia is eager to
see a common position formed on the country among the alliance member
countries at NATO's Chicago summit on May 15-22, 2012.
6. This year marked Georgia's relinquishing of its veto of Russia's
accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the only one of the
153 WTO to do so. Now Georgia has signed an agreement with Russia
facilitating the conclusion of Russia's 18-year efforts to get into
the world trade club.
7. `Stop feeding the Caucasus'; a huge wave of ultra-nationalist
rallies under this slogan demanded a stop to the Russian financing of
the North Caucasus. This year, the situation in the North Caucasus
also became less stable. Also, this year, there was an ethnically
motivated movement in Moscow against workers from the Caucasus.
8. Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran have been tense for years,
but things got especially difficult this year. Indeed, Iran's fear or
paranoia of military strikes from the US or Israel -- set against
Azerbaijan's weakening trust of Iran has pushed it to strengthen its
relationship with Armenia. These developments indicate that Iran will
feel `in check' next year too, which will pose challenges for
Azerbaijan, as a member of the UNSC.
9. Georgian-born billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who wants to form
and head a major political opposition party in Georgia and hold a 2012
parliament election, is a real challenge to the current government
after the Rose Revolution, but Georgian authorities revoked his
citizenship. Anyway, announcement of Ivanishvili to go into politics
came as a surprise for many politicians in Georgia.
10. In Armenia, the opposition has become more influential, Levon Ter
Petrosyan, the main opposition leader and ex-president has got real
leverage, and due to this, the government appears more open to
dialogue with the opposition. Moreover, the former president of
Armenia, Robert Kocharian, who said shortly before leaving office in
2008 that he did not intend to become `Armenia's youngest pensioner'
signals a political comeback ahead of Armenia's next presidential
election due in 2013.
The regional identity of the South Caucasus remains a tricky question,
and thus choosing stories with a `regional' character is not always
easy. But what is clear, as is repeated many times by experts, the
most discussed and most significant issues of 2012 will be the
elections in Armenia and Georgia, as well as in the OSCE Minsk Group
Co-Chairs.
From: Baghdasarian