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  • CENN: Report: Renewable Energy Potential in Armenia

    CENN
    T +995 32 275 19 03/04
    F +995 32 275 19 05
    [email protected]
    www.cenn.org


    http://www.armenianweekly.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/renewable-energy-1.jpg
    Report: Renewable Energy Potential in Armenia

    Wind turbines in Lori Marz

    Report: Renewable Energy Potential in Armenia


    By Tamara Babayan, Areg Gharabegian, Artak Hambarian, Morten
    Søndergaard,
    Kenell Touryan



    YEREVAN (A.W.)-Danish Energy Management, in close consultation with
    main stakeholders and local experts in Armenia, recently prepared the
    Renewable Energy Roadmap for Armenia and its related technical
    studies, which were funded by the Renewable Resources and Energy
    Efficiency Fund (R2E2) of Armenia under the World Bank GEF Grant. This
    paper is a summary of the findings and conclusions of the studies and
    roadmap.

    Renewable energy development has been slow in the past, but its
    application throughout the world is accelerating. Policies to
    stimulate a faster deployment of clean energy technologies are
    necessary and will, in turn, create a level playing field by
    addressing market barriers, creating transparent pricing structures,
    and facilitating access to infrastructure financing. Because the
    renewable energy industry is not yet at the same level of development
    as the more traditional energy industries, it needs a more favorable
    regulatory environment in the near term for its development, survival,
    and transformation to a mainstream energy resource.

    Some renewable energy technologies - such as hydro, biomass, and wind
    - are close to becoming commercial and should be the first to be
    deployed on a massive scale. While other renewable energy technologies
    exhibit promising potential, they are less mature and require
    long-term vision, government encouragement, and favorable regulations
    to flourish. The U.S. and European Union have implemented effective
    support policies for renewable energy development, which have resulted
    in the acceleration of renewable energy technology deployments in
    recent years.


    Current energy status in Armenia


    Armenia does not have any fossil fuel or coal reserves, and is
    therefore entirely dependent on imported fuel for transportation,
    electricity generation, and heat production. While surrounded by
    countries that possess significant hydrocarbon reserves, Armenia's
    fossil fuel reserves are limited to a small number of lignite or brown
    coal mines located in the vicinity of Gyumri and Spitak. Oil drilling
    results have shown that while some oil reserves exist, they are
    located too deep to be economically viable for extraction.

    Armenia has overcome the energy crisis of the 1990's and has built a
    viable energy system. However, compared to the year 1988, which was
    the peak of economic output for the Soviet Republic of Armenia, energy
    consumption continues to lag far behind 1988. The generation capacity
    that year was over 3.5 gigawatts (GW), but the energy use in 2010 was
    on average below 1.2 GW. This can be explained by the fact that the
    energy industry in Armenia has yet to recover fully from the economic
    decline that started with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    A number of thermal power plants have been closed and one of the two
    reactors at the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant has been shut down. Power
    generated from the Hrazdan-Yerevan and Vorotan Hydro Power Plant
    cascades remain as important a power sources. Hydropower is
    responsible for approximately one-third of the total power
    generated. The Armenian government is planning to decommission
    Metsamor Plant between 2017 and 2021. And there are plans to build a
    replacement nuclear power plant with a 1,000 MW capacity no later than
    2021.

    Thermal energy generation capacity has also changed substantially
    during the last two decades. During the Soviet era, there were no
    air-conditioning systems in most of the residential or commercial
    buildings, except for a very limited number of window units, and the
    district heating systems, powered by heavy oil (mazut) and natural
    gas, were the main heating source. After the collapse of the Soviet
    Union, most of the urban centralized heating systems were
    dismantled. Now a large portion of the population, approximately
    one-third, has installed individual natural gas-powered heating
    systems and the use of air-conditioning has increased noticeably.

    The major changes in transportation are related mostly to the slow but
    steady increase in living standards in Armenia, which in turn has seen
    an increase in the number of privately owned cars. The greater use of
    natural gas as an alternative to gasoline has increased the proportion
    of natural gas-powered vehicles to approximately 50 percent of the
    total vehicle fleet.

    Currently Armenia can meet only 35 percent of the total current demand
    for energy with its domestic resources.


    Energy independence


    Renewable energy resources offer numerous benefits as they can not
    only reduce pollution, but also add an economically stable source of
    energy to the mix of electricity-generation sources in
    Armenia. Depending only on imported fuel for energy production makes
    the country vulnerable to volatile prices and interruptions to the
    fuel supply. Since most renewable energy sources do not depend on fuel
    markets, they are not subject to price fluctuations resulting from
    increased demand, decreased supply, or manipulation of the
    market. Because fuel supplies are local, renewable resources are not
    subject to control or supply interruptions from outside the country or
    region. The nation's fossil fuel dependence also has serious
    implications for national security.

    Any addition to the energy independence of Armenia has high direct
    social, industrial, and political value in addition to psychological
    benefits. Such benefits tend to be rather difficult to assess in a
    monetary way. However, a potential approach could be based on the
    results of the analysis that indicate that a 1 percent increase in the
    use of renewable energy is equivalent to 3.65 days of independent
    supply in the event of a total energy blackout.


    Governmental agencies and laws


    The main body for all energy policy matters and issues in Armenia
    resides with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, which is
    responsible for overseeing and managing all aspects of the energy
    sector. The main quasi-governmental organization that is heavily
    involved in renewable energy research and financing is the Renewable
    Resources and Energy Efficiency Fund (R2E2) of Armenia.

    General energy-related issues in Armenia are regulated by the Energy
    Law, and specific issues related to renewable energy are regulated by
    the Law on Energy Saving and Renewable Energy. The main purpose of the
    latter is to define the state policy on the development of energy
    saving and renewable energy. The idea is to strengthen the economic
    situation and energy independence of Armenia by increasing the level
    of indigenous renewable energy production.


    Renewable energy options


    As a country possessing no fossil fuel resources, Armenia could use
    the different sources of renewable energy available in the
    country. The findings of a comprehensive review of renewable energy
    potential in Armenia have ranked small hydropower plants and solar
    hot-water heaters as the most advanced renewable energy and the most
    economical for Armenia in the short to medium term, followed by wind
    farms and the use of heat pumps. Photovoltaics, geothermal power, and
    bio-fuels, especially bio-ethanol from cellulosic feedstocks, are
    ranked as more costly and are not expected to be commercially viable
    in the short to medium term, but may play a more important role in the
    longer term. Biomass for both heat and electricity production for the
    short term can be considered, under several conditions, including
    re-planting of harvested trees and bio-fuels using the fractionation
    process. In addition, hydrogen could be a possible fuel for
    transportation in the longer term. Finally, although not strictly a
    renewable resource, municipal solid waste in landfills is a practical
    source for generating methane for power production.

    Funding sources are readily available for the construction of new
    run-of-the river small hydropower generation systems or for renovating
    existing systems. The main limitation is the availability of promising
    sites within reasonable proximity to good roads, and transmission line
    access where more small hydropower generation systems can be
    constructed. The cost of installing electric power lines for renewable
    energy facilities at remote locations to get connected to the grid can
    be prohibitive from the perspective of overall commercial
    reliability. It is estimated that in 2020, small hydropower installed
    capacity will grow to be about 215 MW from the 100 MW level that
    existed in 2010.

    According to one study, Armenia theoretically has 5,000 MW of wind
    energy capacity. However, this does not mean that if there is capacity
    then it is equal to economically feasible electricity generation. Most
    of the areas with high wind are not easily accessible for heavy
    machinery, which is needed for the installation of the wind turbines.

    Utility-scale wind farms are still not commercially viable under the
    existing government-established electricity purchasing tariff
    structure, from the perspective of attracting private capital
    investment, without either additional fiscal incentives or
    subsidies. The attractiveness of these investments would grow in all
    probability as lighter weight turbines exhibit increased efficiencies
    and the cost of the turbines decreases over time. However, the main
    technical barrier is the difficulty in transporting large turbines
    (1.5-3 MW) and composite blades (up to 52 m. in length) from a port of
    entry to the selected site in a landlocked, mountainous country like
    Armenia. Therefore, no more than 300 MW of wind-generated capacity in
    2020 would be a realistic number, using turbines that do not exceed
    1.5 MW per unit. As of early 2011, only 2.6 MW of wind power was
    operative in the Lori region.

    Currently the most cost-effective approach for using photovoltaic
    solar panels for power production is to import solar cells and to
    assemble them into modules in Armenia. The second alternative is the
    development of an industrial base in Armenia to manufacture
    silicon-based solar cells in the country, using its abundant quartzite
    deposits. This alternative is expected to require an investment of
    approximately $300 million. Presently there are only a few, small
    pilot-type solar panel installations in Armenia.

    Bio-ethanol production is essential for Armenia in order to move in
    the direction of greater energy security of supply in the motor
    transport sector and to offset potential future increases in the cost
    of imported gasoline and compressed natural gas. One hundred percent
    of motor transport fuels are imported. Even a 5 percent blend of
    bio-ethanol with gasoline will replace approximately 14,000 tons of
    expensive imported fuel per year. However, the cost of production of
    bio-ethanol using indigenous non-food feedstocks, such as Jerusalem
    artichoke or animal corn feed, is presently above the wholesale cost
    of gasoline, which means that voluntary blending of bio-ethanol and
    gasoline is not feasible unless mandated by the government.

    Recent explorations and test drilling conducted in Armenia have
    identified a maximum geothermal resource potential of only 75 MW. The
    economic viability for geothermal power in Armenia seems marginal,
    from both the perspective of cost and the total potential power
    output.

    Although municipal waste is not strictly a renewable source, it is
    indigenous to the country, and its disposal is a monumental nuisance
    and very costly. The average annual generation of municipal solid
    waste in Armenia today is estimated to be 1,600 metric tons/day. The
    traditional disposal of municipal waste is in engineered landfills or
    in mass burn incineration, both of which generate serious
    environmental problems. Land for disposal is becoming increasingly
    scarce in urban areas. The more recent and beneficial use has been to
    generate methane gas through anaerobic digestion, and then to use the
    biogas to generate electric power.

    The Lusakert Biogas plant in northern Armenia is the only
    industrial-sized biogas facility based on organic waste from
    poultry. Several years ago, USAID financed the construction of
    approximately 40 small biogas units in the villages throughout
    Armenia; most of these units, however, are not operational because
    villagers prefer to use the old-style way of dried manure for heating
    and cooking, instead of using these units to generate biogas.


    Environmental benefits and impacts


    Renewable energy generation will have mainly positive, long-term
    environmental effects as it reduces the need for power generation
    based on fossil fuels, thereby reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
    emissions. Of course, renewable energy will cause environmental
    impacts during construction and operation. Impacts during construction
    are normally temporary and no worse than other industrial projects.

    Approximately two-thirds of the current power generated in Armenia is
    based on nuclear and hydropower, which in turn lowers the per capita
    GHG emissions for Armenia. While the reduction of GHG emissions is
    still among the targets to pursue, Armenia's energy independence and
    its reduction of the cost of energy generation are of higher
    importance.

    The main potential problems associated with small hydropower plant
    projects could be their impact on migrating fish stock if proper fish
    bypasses are not installed or if proper precautionary measures are not
    implemented to avoid fish being sucked into the turbines. The main
    impacts resulting from the operation of wind farms are low-frequency
    noise and the visual pollution of the landscape. There is also the
    possibility of birds colliding with turbine blades; avoiding bird
    migration paths for wind turbine farms would minimize this impact.

    Bio-fuel production results in virtually no net carbon emissions
    during a complete life cycle if forests are not destroyed to make land
    available for planting feedstock. Even though gasoline that is mixed
    with bio-ethanol has less CO2, the blend produces higher nitrogen
    oxide than gasoline, which is the main component of air pollution that
    causes smog. Depending on the feedstock, the leftover by-products
    could be useful as fertilizer, or fuel for operating processing
    plants, or become waste.


    Entities in the field of renewable energy


    There are a handful of institutes, laboratories, and centers in
    Armenia that are involved in renewable energy research and
    development. Several private companies are also involved in the field
    of hydro, solar, and wind power generation. The majority of these
    companies are engineering and consulting firms that mainly provide
    engineering design and feasibility studies for small hydropower
    plants. There are a few small companies that assemble stand-alone
    solar water heaters or hybrid units that work in conjunction with
    central heating units of apartment buildings or social and educational
    institutions.


    Job creation


    The use of renewable energy will not only keep hard currency in
    Armenia, but will also create significant benefits through economic
    development. The use of renewable energy technologies will create jobs
    using local resources in the form of a new, `green,' high-tech
    industry with an important export potential. Banks and construction
    firms will also benefit from the development of renewable energy
    industries.

    Biomass production is relatively labor intensive, which is one of the
    reasons it is slightly more expensive than fossil fuels. Growing,
    harvesting, and transporting biomass fuels all require local labor, as
    does maintaining the equipment, which contribute to the high cost of
    bio fuel. However, this means that jobs will be created in areas with
    a depressed agricultural economy.


    Conclusions


    The findings of a comprehensive review of renewable energy potential
    in Armenia have ranked small hydropower plants and solar hot water
    heaters as the most economical for Armenia in the short to medium
    term, followed by wind farms and the use of heat pumps. Photovoltaics,
    geothermal power, and bio-fuels, especially bio-ethanol, are ranked as
    more costly in today's prices and are not expected to be commercially
    viable in the short to medium term, but may play a more important role
    in the long term. Biomass is also a viable source for heat and
    electricity production in the short term. Finally, although not
    strictly a renewable resource, municipal solid waste in landfills is a
    practical source for generating methane for power production.

    Renewable energy may not be the major source of energy development in
    Armenia, but it should be an important component of it. As a result of
    dropping prices of various renewable energy technologies, in the near
    future renewable energy production cost could be competitive with more
    traditional sources. Developing feasible and economically viable
    renewable energy resources will create stable, domestic
    power-generation capabilities, which in turn could be a major
    component of Armenia's national security.

    Tamara Babayan is the director of the Renewable Resources and Energy
    Efficiency Fund (R2E2) in Yerevan, Armenia. Areg Gharabegian is a
    principal project manager with Parsons in Pasadena, Calif. Artak
    Hambarian is a professor in the School of Engineering at the American
    University of Armenia (AUA) in Yerevan. Morten Søndergaard is a
    project manager with Danish Energy Management in Denmark. Kenell
    Touryanis a visiting professor in the School of Engineering at AUA and
    a retired researcher from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory
    (NREL) in Denver, Colo.



    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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