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BAKU BICKERING: AZERI OPPOSITIONISTS IN CLOSE RELATIONS WITH TURKEY WANT ALIYEV RESIGNATION
By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow
10.01.12 | 16:08
Photo: Via Facebook
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and his spouse Mrs. Mehriban
Aliyeva
Last weekend a session of Public Chamber civil movement was held
in Baku in the headquarters of Musavat oppositional political party
which hosted the round-table discussion.
As Musavat party leader Isa Gambar stated, the priority of 2012 will be
to seek the resignation of President Ilham Aliyev. Other participating
politicians also called for off-year presidential elections, among
them Ari Karimli leading the Popular Front of Azerbaijan party.
The two political parties (Musavat and Popular Front of Azerbaijan)
are the closest to Turkey among political organizations of Azerbaijan.
Some analysts claim Azerbaijan is experiencing consolidation of
political forces directed against the Aliyev clan, and that this
movement is initiated by Turkey. In this case, Aliyev might be forced
to resort to "non-standard measures", among them a possible initiation
of a new wave of tensions in the Karabakh conflict zone.
Late last year, Baku-based Poligon publication reported with reference
to sources among Turkey's ruling top that Turkish premier Recep Tayyip
Erdogan "decided to support the Azeri opposition". Tensions between
Turkey and Israel at a time when the Azeri elite is strengthening
ties with Israel" was pointed to as one of the reasons for Turkey's
potential pressure on the Aliyev clan.
Arif Yunus, head of Azeri Institute of Peace and Democracy's Department
of Conflict and Migration Studies, says: "There is a certain degree of
exaggeration here, however it's a common knowledge that Ilham Aliyev
and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are not in best and warmest relations with
each other, as they themselves publicly admit."
Yunus says that there are controversies and unresolved issues, which
are sure to annoy Ankara. "One such example is the unilateral visa
regime, when the Azeri authorities are unwilling to do as the Turkish
authorities did around one and a half a year ago, when they exempted
Azeri citizens from entry visa requirement."
Another factor that's currently irritating Ankara is that the
ruling Aliyev clan of Azerbaijan does not declare Kurdistan Workers'
Party as a terrorist organization. "Moreover, certain units of it
are functioning in Azerbaijan, and that's also a common knowledge,"
says Yunus.
At the same time he says with certainty that Azerbaijan will be
challenged by a spontaneous outburst "like in Egypt, Tunisia and even
Libya, if nothing changes in the country."
Some analysts view the activities of such politicians as Isa Gambar
and Ali Karimli in the context of collusion with Turkey to force
Ilham Aliyev's resignation.
At the same time analysts say that the president's position now is
rather shaky and he is "surrounded by a mighty camp". It's about
the confrontation between the "Aliyev" and "Pasha" clans, and the
first lady of the country Mehriban Aliyeva is a representative of the
"Pasha clan" at that.
It is under her influence that such universally recognized "soldiers of
the Aliyev clan" were accused of corruption and arrested as healthcare
and economy ministers of Azerbaijan (the economy minister is also
one of the founders of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan party).
Heydar Aliyev's younger brother, academician MP Jalal Aliyev's position
is noteworthy in this connection, who publicly refused to participate
in parliament sessions.
Hence, currently neither the representatives of his own clan, nor
brother Turkey, nor the opposition are happy with the president. If
for an extended period of time the foundation of his "lasting power"
were high oil prices, with the strengthening of Pasha clan that
resource can melt away in no time.
The overall situation might force Aliyev's hand to use the Karabakh
issue as one of the possible means to stabilize his influence.
By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow
10.01.12 | 16:08
Photo: Via Facebook
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and his spouse Mrs. Mehriban
Aliyeva
Last weekend a session of Public Chamber civil movement was held
in Baku in the headquarters of Musavat oppositional political party
which hosted the round-table discussion.
As Musavat party leader Isa Gambar stated, the priority of 2012 will be
to seek the resignation of President Ilham Aliyev. Other participating
politicians also called for off-year presidential elections, among
them Ari Karimli leading the Popular Front of Azerbaijan party.
The two political parties (Musavat and Popular Front of Azerbaijan)
are the closest to Turkey among political organizations of Azerbaijan.
Some analysts claim Azerbaijan is experiencing consolidation of
political forces directed against the Aliyev clan, and that this
movement is initiated by Turkey. In this case, Aliyev might be forced
to resort to "non-standard measures", among them a possible initiation
of a new wave of tensions in the Karabakh conflict zone.
Late last year, Baku-based Poligon publication reported with reference
to sources among Turkey's ruling top that Turkish premier Recep Tayyip
Erdogan "decided to support the Azeri opposition". Tensions between
Turkey and Israel at a time when the Azeri elite is strengthening
ties with Israel" was pointed to as one of the reasons for Turkey's
potential pressure on the Aliyev clan.
Arif Yunus, head of Azeri Institute of Peace and Democracy's Department
of Conflict and Migration Studies, says: "There is a certain degree of
exaggeration here, however it's a common knowledge that Ilham Aliyev
and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are not in best and warmest relations with
each other, as they themselves publicly admit."
Yunus says that there are controversies and unresolved issues, which
are sure to annoy Ankara. "One such example is the unilateral visa
regime, when the Azeri authorities are unwilling to do as the Turkish
authorities did around one and a half a year ago, when they exempted
Azeri citizens from entry visa requirement."
Another factor that's currently irritating Ankara is that the
ruling Aliyev clan of Azerbaijan does not declare Kurdistan Workers'
Party as a terrorist organization. "Moreover, certain units of it
are functioning in Azerbaijan, and that's also a common knowledge,"
says Yunus.
At the same time he says with certainty that Azerbaijan will be
challenged by a spontaneous outburst "like in Egypt, Tunisia and even
Libya, if nothing changes in the country."
Some analysts view the activities of such politicians as Isa Gambar
and Ali Karimli in the context of collusion with Turkey to force
Ilham Aliyev's resignation.
At the same time analysts say that the president's position now is
rather shaky and he is "surrounded by a mighty camp". It's about
the confrontation between the "Aliyev" and "Pasha" clans, and the
first lady of the country Mehriban Aliyeva is a representative of the
"Pasha clan" at that.
It is under her influence that such universally recognized "soldiers of
the Aliyev clan" were accused of corruption and arrested as healthcare
and economy ministers of Azerbaijan (the economy minister is also
one of the founders of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan party).
Heydar Aliyev's younger brother, academician MP Jalal Aliyev's position
is noteworthy in this connection, who publicly refused to participate
in parliament sessions.
Hence, currently neither the representatives of his own clan, nor
brother Turkey, nor the opposition are happy with the president. If
for an extended period of time the foundation of his "lasting power"
were high oil prices, with the strengthening of Pasha clan that
resource can melt away in no time.
The overall situation might force Aliyev's hand to use the Karabakh
issue as one of the possible means to stabilize his influence.