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Baku Bickering: Azeri Oppositionists In Close Relations With Turkey

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  • Baku Bickering: Azeri Oppositionists In Close Relations With Turkey

    BAKU BICKERING: AZERI OPPOSITIONISTS IN CLOSE RELATIONS WITH TURKEY WANT ALIYEV RESIGNATION
    By Aris Ghazinyan

    ArmeniaNow
    10.01.12 | 16:08

    Photo: Via Facebook

    President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and his spouse Mrs. Mehriban
    Aliyeva

    Last weekend a session of Public Chamber civil movement was held
    in Baku in the headquarters of Musavat oppositional political party
    which hosted the round-table discussion.

    As Musavat party leader Isa Gambar stated, the priority of 2012 will be
    to seek the resignation of President Ilham Aliyev. Other participating
    politicians also called for off-year presidential elections, among
    them Ari Karimli leading the Popular Front of Azerbaijan party.

    The two political parties (Musavat and Popular Front of Azerbaijan)
    are the closest to Turkey among political organizations of Azerbaijan.

    Some analysts claim Azerbaijan is experiencing consolidation of
    political forces directed against the Aliyev clan, and that this
    movement is initiated by Turkey. In this case, Aliyev might be forced
    to resort to "non-standard measures", among them a possible initiation
    of a new wave of tensions in the Karabakh conflict zone.

    Late last year, Baku-based Poligon publication reported with reference
    to sources among Turkey's ruling top that Turkish premier Recep Tayyip
    Erdogan "decided to support the Azeri opposition". Tensions between
    Turkey and Israel at a time when the Azeri elite is strengthening
    ties with Israel" was pointed to as one of the reasons for Turkey's
    potential pressure on the Aliyev clan.

    Arif Yunus, head of Azeri Institute of Peace and Democracy's Department
    of Conflict and Migration Studies, says: "There is a certain degree of
    exaggeration here, however it's a common knowledge that Ilham Aliyev
    and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are not in best and warmest relations with
    each other, as they themselves publicly admit."

    Yunus says that there are controversies and unresolved issues, which
    are sure to annoy Ankara. "One such example is the unilateral visa
    regime, when the Azeri authorities are unwilling to do as the Turkish
    authorities did around one and a half a year ago, when they exempted
    Azeri citizens from entry visa requirement."

    Another factor that's currently irritating Ankara is that the
    ruling Aliyev clan of Azerbaijan does not declare Kurdistan Workers'
    Party as a terrorist organization. "Moreover, certain units of it
    are functioning in Azerbaijan, and that's also a common knowledge,"
    says Yunus.

    At the same time he says with certainty that Azerbaijan will be
    challenged by a spontaneous outburst "like in Egypt, Tunisia and even
    Libya, if nothing changes in the country."

    Some analysts view the activities of such politicians as Isa Gambar
    and Ali Karimli in the context of collusion with Turkey to force
    Ilham Aliyev's resignation.

    At the same time analysts say that the president's position now is
    rather shaky and he is "surrounded by a mighty camp". It's about
    the confrontation between the "Aliyev" and "Pasha" clans, and the
    first lady of the country Mehriban Aliyeva is a representative of the
    "Pasha clan" at that.

    It is under her influence that such universally recognized "soldiers of
    the Aliyev clan" were accused of corruption and arrested as healthcare
    and economy ministers of Azerbaijan (the economy minister is also
    one of the founders of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan party).

    Heydar Aliyev's younger brother, academician MP Jalal Aliyev's position
    is noteworthy in this connection, who publicly refused to participate
    in parliament sessions.

    Hence, currently neither the representatives of his own clan, nor
    brother Turkey, nor the opposition are happy with the president. If
    for an extended period of time the foundation of his "lasting power"
    were high oil prices, with the strengthening of Pasha clan that
    resource can melt away in no time.

    The overall situation might force Aliyev's hand to use the Karabakh
    issue as one of the possible means to stabilize his influence.

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