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ANKARA: Breaking The Nagorno-Karabakh Deadlock: Power Of The 'Powerl

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  • ANKARA: Breaking The Nagorno-Karabakh Deadlock: Power Of The 'Powerl

    BREAKING THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH DEADLOCK: POWER OF THE 'POWERLESS'
    by Efgan Niftiyev

    Today's Zaman
    Jan 11 2012
    Turkey

    As restive crowds sweep away long-standing authoritarian regimes
    throughout the Middle East, the world is witnessing the manifestation
    of power of the "voiceless" and disenfranchised.

    The wave of revolutions clearly portrays how impotent security forces
    can become in the face of the adamant will of millions, no matter how
    brutal and merciless they are. Looking at what non-violent protests are
    able to achieve, I couldn't stop myself thinking of all the suffering
    and injustice inflicted on people as a result of the war between
    Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh and how a non-violent,
    masterfully orchestrated march of thousands of civilians could actually
    bring an end to the deadlock in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a story of ethnic hatred, the seeds
    of which were planted long before the disintegration of the Soviet
    Union. This decades-enduring hatred was reignited and politically
    coordinated by national elites towards the end of the 1980s. With
    growing ethnic tensions in Azerbaijan and Armenia, ethnic Azerbaijanis
    had to leave Armenia due to dire conditions in the winter of 1988.

    Over 200,000 refugees had to be sheltered in different regions of
    Azerbaijan. Ethnic Armenians shared a similar destiny; they were
    forced to leave their homes in Azerbaijani territories. Some of them
    fled to Armenia and many others to Russia. It was a harbinger of the
    brutal conflict that was to follow and of the hostility that to this
    day continues to take lives along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border
    despite a 17-year cease-fire.

    Over 100,000 Karabakh Armenians still live on and cultivate their
    lands, while one in eight Azerbaijanis became internally displaced
    persons (IDPs). This accounts for around 1 million people who lost
    their homes and belongings. Many Azerbaijani towns in Nagorno-Karabakh
    and in the surrounding seven districts have now become ghost towns.

    Agdam, which was once home to tens of thousands of ethnic Azerbaijanis,
    is a concrete example of the complete destruction of a human
    civilization in our modern times. The Armenian political elite
    justify it as the right to self-determination of Karabakh Armenians,
    and many others in the international community applaud what has been
    done. Despite the conflicting narratives in the destructive armed
    conflict, there is one simple reality that needs to be acknowledged:
    the right of return -- their right to return to their homeland. There
    is no entity that can forcibly deny it.

    Since 1992, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's
    (OSCE) Minsk Group, co-chaired by France, the US and Russia, has been
    trying to mediate between Azerbaijan and Armenia to end the conflict.

    The return to their homeland of IDPs has been one of the main issues
    at the negotiating table. Hundreds of meetings between the conflicting
    parties have failed to produce any meaningful progress. Now there is
    ongoing talk in the peace process about the possibility of resuming
    the armed conflict. Azerbaijan did strengthen its military might to be
    able to overrun Armenian forces in the event of renewed armed clashes,
    but a second war would be far more devastating than the first because
    it was not fought with S-300 missiles or other more advanced weapons.

    Several experts in the international community are trying to tackle
    the question as to how they can prevent tensions similar to those in
    South Ossetia in 2008. However, the subject of discussion should not
    be how to maintain the status quo but how to end the conflict and
    bring about the long-awaited justice.

    Local people must take initiative

    The local people who have suffered and lost their homes and property
    need to take the initiative to end their destiny of being hostage to
    fruitless negotiations and political brinkmanship. The non-violent
    "march of return" of thousands of Azerbaijanis can bring the
    long-desired peace to the region. It is time to have their voices
    heard. They do exist, and every single IDP has every right to claim
    his/her home back. I know many find it dangerous and think that it may
    cost the loss of uncountable civilian lives. There is a lot of talk
    about land mines and the deep trenches built by the occupying Armenian
    forces, but no force can stop thousands of protesters marching toward
    the areas they once left behind. This kind of action may take several
    months of preparations and thorough organization, but if the will of
    thousands is combined with strong international media coverage, a lot
    could be achieved for the mutual benefit of Azerbaijanis and Armenians.

    The world is changing and there is no place for unjust practices and
    the denial of basic human rights. Arms, rocket launchers and artillery
    all sound upsetting and alarming, but let's not forget about the power
    of the "powerless" and "voiceless." Azerbaijan's frustration with
    the peace process must be understood. In the Arab Spring, the world
    witnessed and continues to witness what crowds with rightful demands
    can achieve, no matter how chaotic their organization may be. In the
    early stages of the protests in Syria, Egypt and Tunisia, security
    forces -- neither police nor military -- fired on the protesters. As
    the determination and fearlessness of the crowd grew, there was
    nothing to stand in its way. In a similar way, a civilian march has
    the potential to achieve a break in the deadlock in Nagorno-Karabakh.

    It would not be an easy task to forcibly stop it from advancing. It
    is not with the power of four UN Security Council resolutions or
    the potential of the OSCE negotiations that will return displaced
    people to their homes. It is their rightful actions that can bring a
    long-term solution to the conflict. It would not be an easy task to
    forcibly stop a peaceful civilian march from advancing.

    People want peace and their occupied homes back, and this can be
    reached through peaceful means. International experts, politicians,
    diplomats and others may try to propagate their own versions of
    "justice" and try to seem as if they are negotiating or mediating
    while maintaining a status quo of no war, no peace. This will be
    of little help to an ordinary Azerbaijani IDP who has yet to see
    his or her home or true justice served. Their right of return is
    undeniable, unstoppable and cannot be delayed whether they are from
    Nagorno-Karabakh or other occupied territories. Unfortunately, in the
    cloud of conflicting narratives and propaganda, the bare consequence
    of conflict are often forgotten.

    Efgan Niftiyev is an international relations analyst and a graduate
    fellow at George Washington University.

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