Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

BAKU: 'No Breakthrough' Likely At Presidents' Karabakh Talks

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • BAKU: 'No Breakthrough' Likely At Presidents' Karabakh Talks

    'NO BREAKTHROUGH' LIKELY AT PRESIDENTS' KARABAKH TALKS
    Rasim Musabayov

    News.Az
    Thu 12 January 2012

    News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political expert Rasim Musabayov,
    an independent member of the Milli Majlis.

    What are your expectations of the next round of talks between the
    Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents on resolution of the Karabakh
    conflict? The talks will be held in Sochi this month with the mediation
    of Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev.

    This will be the last meeting Dmitriy Medvedev holds as Russian
    president with the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia. I think
    that Medvedev has put in a lot of effort into promoting a Karabakh
    settlement during his four-year presidential term. The meeting in
    Sochi will be a farewell meeting for Medvedev and I do not expect
    it to achieve any breakthrough on the Karabakh settlement. I am also
    not too sure that the meeting will be rich in content.

    Anyway, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia will come to Sochi and
    meet Dmitriy Medvedev. Upon completion of the talks the presidents of
    Azerbaijan and Armenia will at best thank Medvedev for his efforts on
    a Karabakh settlement and say that they appreciate Russian mediation
    and will continue to search for a peaceful solution to the conflict.

    Why do you say that the trilateral meeting between the presidents of
    Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia in Sochi will not manage any positive
    achievements in a Karabakh settlement?

    There is no new proposal on the negotiating table. Moreover, we cannot
    not see any attempts by Russia to put heavy pressure on Armenia to
    be constructive.

    There is the fact of the occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenians
    and that the Armenians do not want to liberate these territories
    without attaining their goal of legalizing the separation of
    Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan would have agreed 15
    years ago, when the country was in a tough position, but it is absurd
    to expect such concessions from Azerbaijan today.

    Now the Armenians want to protract the Karabakh conflict and to make
    Azerbaijan commit to the non-use of force in any document while the
    occupation continues. Of course, Azerbaijan refuses to sign such a
    document. And I cannot see a single factor that could force Azerbaijan
    to change this position.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that the political
    resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh and Transdniestrian conflicts will
    be a priority in Russian foreign policy in 2012. How effective can
    Russian activity be, given that Moscow's assistance in resolution of
    the Karabakh conflict has yet to be effective?

    Russia is to hold presidential elections in March this year. A new
    president will be elected and Russia will probably have a new foreign
    minister. After the inauguration of the new president and appointment
    of the foreign minister, new foreign policy priorities will be set in
    Russia. Therefore, I do not expect Russia to propose new initiatives
    on the Karabakh and Transdniestrian conflicts.

    How likely is that, by agreeing to take part in a major project
    implemented by the United States or Russia, Azerbaijan may obtain
    decisive support on a Karabakh settlement from one of the two
    superpowers?

    As far as Russia is concerned, a major project would imply
    Azerbaijan~Rs participation in the creation of a Eurasian union.

    However, this union is not yet of any interest to Azerbaijan. As
    all Azerbaijan's communications pass through Georgia and Turkey,
    it would be senseless for Baku to join a union that does not include
    these countries. Therefore, I do not think that this alliance can be
    of any interest to Azerbaijan. Moreover, no one else will be able to
    find any benefit for Azerbaijan in the Eurasian union. On the contrary,
    there are intentions to feed satellites and settle political problems
    through Azerbaijan. I do not think that Azerbaijan today will be
    willing to take decisions to participate in the Eurasian Union.

    However, Baku will not reject the proposal to join the union
    categorically. Baku~Rs approach will be: set up a fully functioning
    union and if we think we can benefit, we'll consider joining.

    As far as the United States is concerned, a major project would
    imply the location of US military bases in Azerbaijan. The important
    question here is whether the Americans give any guarantees of security
    to Azerbaijan, or assume any commitment to ensure the territorial
    integrity of the country? If the Americans undertook this commitment,
    Azerbaijan would locate even three US military bases on its territory.

    But there are no such commitments, while it would be unwise for
    Azerbaijan to assume the risks of granting its territory for the
    military and geopolitical plans of the United States. This would mean
    that Azerbaijan would risk being one-on-one with Russia and Iran.

    Therefore, Azerbaijan interacts on a bilateral basis with both the
    USA and Russia while making its interests the cornerstone.

Working...
X