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'NO BREAKTHROUGH' LIKELY AT PRESIDENTS' KARABAKH TALKS
Rasim Musabayov
News.Az
Thu 12 January 2012
News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political expert Rasim Musabayov,
an independent member of the Milli Majlis.
What are your expectations of the next round of talks between the
Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents on resolution of the Karabakh
conflict? The talks will be held in Sochi this month with the mediation
of Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev.
This will be the last meeting Dmitriy Medvedev holds as Russian
president with the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia. I think
that Medvedev has put in a lot of effort into promoting a Karabakh
settlement during his four-year presidential term. The meeting in
Sochi will be a farewell meeting for Medvedev and I do not expect
it to achieve any breakthrough on the Karabakh settlement. I am also
not too sure that the meeting will be rich in content.
Anyway, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia will come to Sochi and
meet Dmitriy Medvedev. Upon completion of the talks the presidents of
Azerbaijan and Armenia will at best thank Medvedev for his efforts on
a Karabakh settlement and say that they appreciate Russian mediation
and will continue to search for a peaceful solution to the conflict.
Why do you say that the trilateral meeting between the presidents of
Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia in Sochi will not manage any positive
achievements in a Karabakh settlement?
There is no new proposal on the negotiating table. Moreover, we cannot
not see any attempts by Russia to put heavy pressure on Armenia to
be constructive.
There is the fact of the occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenians
and that the Armenians do not want to liberate these territories
without attaining their goal of legalizing the separation of
Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan would have agreed 15
years ago, when the country was in a tough position, but it is absurd
to expect such concessions from Azerbaijan today.
Now the Armenians want to protract the Karabakh conflict and to make
Azerbaijan commit to the non-use of force in any document while the
occupation continues. Of course, Azerbaijan refuses to sign such a
document. And I cannot see a single factor that could force Azerbaijan
to change this position.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that the political
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh and Transdniestrian conflicts will
be a priority in Russian foreign policy in 2012. How effective can
Russian activity be, given that Moscow's assistance in resolution of
the Karabakh conflict has yet to be effective?
Russia is to hold presidential elections in March this year. A new
president will be elected and Russia will probably have a new foreign
minister. After the inauguration of the new president and appointment
of the foreign minister, new foreign policy priorities will be set in
Russia. Therefore, I do not expect Russia to propose new initiatives
on the Karabakh and Transdniestrian conflicts.
How likely is that, by agreeing to take part in a major project
implemented by the United States or Russia, Azerbaijan may obtain
decisive support on a Karabakh settlement from one of the two
superpowers?
As far as Russia is concerned, a major project would imply
Azerbaijan~Rs participation in the creation of a Eurasian union.
However, this union is not yet of any interest to Azerbaijan. As
all Azerbaijan's communications pass through Georgia and Turkey,
it would be senseless for Baku to join a union that does not include
these countries. Therefore, I do not think that this alliance can be
of any interest to Azerbaijan. Moreover, no one else will be able to
find any benefit for Azerbaijan in the Eurasian union. On the contrary,
there are intentions to feed satellites and settle political problems
through Azerbaijan. I do not think that Azerbaijan today will be
willing to take decisions to participate in the Eurasian Union.
However, Baku will not reject the proposal to join the union
categorically. Baku~Rs approach will be: set up a fully functioning
union and if we think we can benefit, we'll consider joining.
As far as the United States is concerned, a major project would
imply the location of US military bases in Azerbaijan. The important
question here is whether the Americans give any guarantees of security
to Azerbaijan, or assume any commitment to ensure the territorial
integrity of the country? If the Americans undertook this commitment,
Azerbaijan would locate even three US military bases on its territory.
But there are no such commitments, while it would be unwise for
Azerbaijan to assume the risks of granting its territory for the
military and geopolitical plans of the United States. This would mean
that Azerbaijan would risk being one-on-one with Russia and Iran.
Therefore, Azerbaijan interacts on a bilateral basis with both the
USA and Russia while making its interests the cornerstone.
Rasim Musabayov
News.Az
Thu 12 January 2012
News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political expert Rasim Musabayov,
an independent member of the Milli Majlis.
What are your expectations of the next round of talks between the
Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents on resolution of the Karabakh
conflict? The talks will be held in Sochi this month with the mediation
of Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev.
This will be the last meeting Dmitriy Medvedev holds as Russian
president with the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia. I think
that Medvedev has put in a lot of effort into promoting a Karabakh
settlement during his four-year presidential term. The meeting in
Sochi will be a farewell meeting for Medvedev and I do not expect
it to achieve any breakthrough on the Karabakh settlement. I am also
not too sure that the meeting will be rich in content.
Anyway, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia will come to Sochi and
meet Dmitriy Medvedev. Upon completion of the talks the presidents of
Azerbaijan and Armenia will at best thank Medvedev for his efforts on
a Karabakh settlement and say that they appreciate Russian mediation
and will continue to search for a peaceful solution to the conflict.
Why do you say that the trilateral meeting between the presidents of
Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia in Sochi will not manage any positive
achievements in a Karabakh settlement?
There is no new proposal on the negotiating table. Moreover, we cannot
not see any attempts by Russia to put heavy pressure on Armenia to
be constructive.
There is the fact of the occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenians
and that the Armenians do not want to liberate these territories
without attaining their goal of legalizing the separation of
Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan would have agreed 15
years ago, when the country was in a tough position, but it is absurd
to expect such concessions from Azerbaijan today.
Now the Armenians want to protract the Karabakh conflict and to make
Azerbaijan commit to the non-use of force in any document while the
occupation continues. Of course, Azerbaijan refuses to sign such a
document. And I cannot see a single factor that could force Azerbaijan
to change this position.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that the political
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh and Transdniestrian conflicts will
be a priority in Russian foreign policy in 2012. How effective can
Russian activity be, given that Moscow's assistance in resolution of
the Karabakh conflict has yet to be effective?
Russia is to hold presidential elections in March this year. A new
president will be elected and Russia will probably have a new foreign
minister. After the inauguration of the new president and appointment
of the foreign minister, new foreign policy priorities will be set in
Russia. Therefore, I do not expect Russia to propose new initiatives
on the Karabakh and Transdniestrian conflicts.
How likely is that, by agreeing to take part in a major project
implemented by the United States or Russia, Azerbaijan may obtain
decisive support on a Karabakh settlement from one of the two
superpowers?
As far as Russia is concerned, a major project would imply
Azerbaijan~Rs participation in the creation of a Eurasian union.
However, this union is not yet of any interest to Azerbaijan. As
all Azerbaijan's communications pass through Georgia and Turkey,
it would be senseless for Baku to join a union that does not include
these countries. Therefore, I do not think that this alliance can be
of any interest to Azerbaijan. Moreover, no one else will be able to
find any benefit for Azerbaijan in the Eurasian union. On the contrary,
there are intentions to feed satellites and settle political problems
through Azerbaijan. I do not think that Azerbaijan today will be
willing to take decisions to participate in the Eurasian Union.
However, Baku will not reject the proposal to join the union
categorically. Baku~Rs approach will be: set up a fully functioning
union and if we think we can benefit, we'll consider joining.
As far as the United States is concerned, a major project would
imply the location of US military bases in Azerbaijan. The important
question here is whether the Americans give any guarantees of security
to Azerbaijan, or assume any commitment to ensure the territorial
integrity of the country? If the Americans undertook this commitment,
Azerbaijan would locate even three US military bases on its territory.
But there are no such commitments, while it would be unwise for
Azerbaijan to assume the risks of granting its territory for the
military and geopolitical plans of the United States. This would mean
that Azerbaijan would risk being one-on-one with Russia and Iran.
Therefore, Azerbaijan interacts on a bilateral basis with both the
USA and Russia while making its interests the cornerstone.