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Today's Zaman, Turkey
Jan 14 2012
The US is done waiting
BERÄ°L DEDEOÄ?LU
Unfortunately, very few foresee a more stable international system in
the near future. The global financial crisis continues to stimulate
tensions between states and societies around the globe in one way or
another.
The Obama administration's initial choice was not to lose more time in
the Middle East and to concentrate its efforts in Asia. Consequently,
serious problems in the Afghanistan-Pakistan area were expected. While
Iran, and perhaps its sponsor, Russia, tried to destabilize Pakistan,
the US planned to use the latter, along with Afghanistan, as a barrier
between Iran and China. The US was acting as if it was applying a
policy of containment against China.
As the US moved its military and political weight toward Asia, Iran
lost its chance to successfully expand its reach into the East. That's
why it tried once again to find a way out of the south and acted in
the Persian Gulf, as well as in Syria and Lebanon. The real reasons
behind Iran's actions cannot be fully understood by looking only at
Tehran, as there are other powers that use Iran to achieve their own
goals.
Iran's recent moves have proven there are still great issues to be
resolved in the Middle East and that no actor has a chance to give its
attention to the Far East before finding a solution to these issues.
That's why the US has decided to support more vigorously its allies in
the Middle East. This would be much simpler if everything was alright
with them, but the truth is quite different. The Mubarak regime was
overthrown in Egypt and Israel is reluctant to do what it takes to
resolve the Palestinian issue. All this comes at a time when relations
between Turkey and Israel have hit rock bottom. It is true that Turkey
is now seen as a more trustworthy partner in the Arab world but,
luckily, it has resisted pressures to adopt a more hard-line stance
against Israel, remaining on the ground of `soft politics.'
The most reasonable scenario for the US is to bring together some of
the EU countries on good terms with Russia, such as Germany and
France, with Turkey and a few Arab countries in order to use them to
stabilize the Middle East through the use of soft politics. However,
the above mentioned EU countries have refused to play their part for
political and economic reasons, and never want to be seen in the same
picture as Turkey.
Not only have they refused this, they have also increased pressure on
Turkey by using the Cyprus or Armenian issues. Some have seen that
under these circumstances, Turkey will look for bilateral alliances
and will accept any European power willing to help. The UK was one of
the first countries to have noticed this opportunity and has already
begun to support Turkish policies toward Iraq, Syria, Egypt and
Armenia. To tell the truth, this will not be the first time in history
that European powers have seized such opportunities.
While these new balances are put in place, the EU remains of decisive
importance. The meaning of this will become more apparent if military
interventions in Syria and/or Iran are seriously put on table. We live
in a world where nobody can blame others for one's own mistakes or
inefficiencies. The only way out is to be as transparent as possible,
and transparency will only be established through dialogue. Sending
warships to far away seas or dropping bombs from warplanes only worsen
the existing situations.
Everything indicates that the US has decided it has waited enough. It
is now in a hurry to build multilateral coalitions and to pull Russia
to its side through the influence of some EU members while Turkey
remains out of the EU. If it fails, it will declare Russia as the
`other,' along with Syria and Iran, and will start to contain these
players using EU member countries not aligned with Russia. In this
second scenario, too, Turkey will be kept outside the EU.
From: A. Papazian
Jan 14 2012
The US is done waiting
BERÄ°L DEDEOÄ?LU
Unfortunately, very few foresee a more stable international system in
the near future. The global financial crisis continues to stimulate
tensions between states and societies around the globe in one way or
another.
The Obama administration's initial choice was not to lose more time in
the Middle East and to concentrate its efforts in Asia. Consequently,
serious problems in the Afghanistan-Pakistan area were expected. While
Iran, and perhaps its sponsor, Russia, tried to destabilize Pakistan,
the US planned to use the latter, along with Afghanistan, as a barrier
between Iran and China. The US was acting as if it was applying a
policy of containment against China.
As the US moved its military and political weight toward Asia, Iran
lost its chance to successfully expand its reach into the East. That's
why it tried once again to find a way out of the south and acted in
the Persian Gulf, as well as in Syria and Lebanon. The real reasons
behind Iran's actions cannot be fully understood by looking only at
Tehran, as there are other powers that use Iran to achieve their own
goals.
Iran's recent moves have proven there are still great issues to be
resolved in the Middle East and that no actor has a chance to give its
attention to the Far East before finding a solution to these issues.
That's why the US has decided to support more vigorously its allies in
the Middle East. This would be much simpler if everything was alright
with them, but the truth is quite different. The Mubarak regime was
overthrown in Egypt and Israel is reluctant to do what it takes to
resolve the Palestinian issue. All this comes at a time when relations
between Turkey and Israel have hit rock bottom. It is true that Turkey
is now seen as a more trustworthy partner in the Arab world but,
luckily, it has resisted pressures to adopt a more hard-line stance
against Israel, remaining on the ground of `soft politics.'
The most reasonable scenario for the US is to bring together some of
the EU countries on good terms with Russia, such as Germany and
France, with Turkey and a few Arab countries in order to use them to
stabilize the Middle East through the use of soft politics. However,
the above mentioned EU countries have refused to play their part for
political and economic reasons, and never want to be seen in the same
picture as Turkey.
Not only have they refused this, they have also increased pressure on
Turkey by using the Cyprus or Armenian issues. Some have seen that
under these circumstances, Turkey will look for bilateral alliances
and will accept any European power willing to help. The UK was one of
the first countries to have noticed this opportunity and has already
begun to support Turkish policies toward Iraq, Syria, Egypt and
Armenia. To tell the truth, this will not be the first time in history
that European powers have seized such opportunities.
While these new balances are put in place, the EU remains of decisive
importance. The meaning of this will become more apparent if military
interventions in Syria and/or Iran are seriously put on table. We live
in a world where nobody can blame others for one's own mistakes or
inefficiencies. The only way out is to be as transparent as possible,
and transparency will only be established through dialogue. Sending
warships to far away seas or dropping bombs from warplanes only worsen
the existing situations.
Everything indicates that the US has decided it has waited enough. It
is now in a hurry to build multilateral coalitions and to pull Russia
to its side through the influence of some EU members while Turkey
remains out of the EU. If it fails, it will declare Russia as the
`other,' along with Syria and Iran, and will start to contain these
players using EU member countries not aligned with Russia. In this
second scenario, too, Turkey will be kept outside the EU.
From: A. Papazian