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Think Again: California incumbents face a new challenge
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http://www.glendalenewspress.com/news/opinion/tn-blr-0115-think-again-california-incumbents-face-a-new-challenge,0,123783.story
Zanku Armenian
January 15, 2012
It's going to be a fun-filled year ahead as we try to figure out where
we are going as a country, as a state and as local communities.
If we've seen any lesson thus far, even with the early Iowa Republican
Caucus, every vote counts. In Iowa, Gov. Mitt Romney beat out former
U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum by only eight votes.
While voters could take out their economic frustrations on elected
officials, I think incumbents are expecting it. But California
incumbents should be especially worried because of the convergence of
two rare factors. First, congressional and state representation
districts have been redrawn by the California Citizens Redistricting
Commission. This means incumbents are sorting out the composition of
voters in their new districts and how that will affect their support.
The winning constituency `formula' with which incumbents retained
their seats with their old districts has been remixed. They now have
to understand a different mix of voters. In some cases entire
districts have been eliminated.
For example, for some Burbank-area voters, this means Reps. Howard
Berman and Brad Sherman will compete for your vote because they are
now running for the same district that includes part of the city. It's
like the game `musical chairs' when there is only one seat left.
This will be a heavyweight-boxing match, `Berman vs. Sherman!' Get
your ringside seats. It's going to be a hotly contested race, and your
vote could make the difference.
Adam Schiff, on the other hand, will run for a new 28th Congressional
District. This new district has retained an important part of
Schiff's previous 29th District with the Glendale area, but has lost
key parts east and south of Pasadena, while picking up a new area
stretching to Hollywood, including Little Armenia.
Similar changes have been made to state Assemblyman Mike Gatto's 43rd
District. This gives the districts more concentrated demographics and
will make both seats more susceptible to competition, especially
considering a second new factor.
The second political wildcard in California is that for the first time
we will have `open primaries.' This new election method means the two
candidates with the highest primary votes, regardless of party
affiliation or primary, will move on to compete during the general
election.
For example, in a district where Democrats are still the majority,
such as the ones Schiff or Gatto will be running for, it could result
in two Democrats competing against each other in the November
election.
Democratic incumbents who used to view their party's June primary as
their main election have to deal with a new scenario - once they were
past the party primary, they would coast through general
elections. That may not be the case anymore.
This situation probably concerns both the Democratic and Republican
parties. However, the Democratic Party machinery must be especially
concerned, because with so many Democratic-leaning districts, it could
result in party members breaking ranks and competing against fellow
Democrats.
It has the potential to decentralize power by weakening the ability of
a few party `kingmakers' to protect incumbents. But anything that
weakens the ability to predetermine outcomes is a win for democracy.
Voters are dissatisfied with today's Congress and state
Legislature. Neither body can seem to make decisions until forced to
at the end of their sessions - a sure sign of a broken system.
It's not good enough anymore for an elected official to say `it's not
me, it's them,' referring to a vague collective of their
colleagues. Voters should be saying, `you' are `them.'
California residents took the first step by redrawing districts and
creating
open primaries. The question is whether ordinary citizens will take
the second step by deciding they've had enough and are willing to run
against career politicians.
With new factors that change the playing field, for those who think
they can do a better job, it's an opportunity to challenge the status
quo.
ZANKU ARMENIAN is a resident of Glendale and a corporate communications and
public affairs professional. He can be reached at [email protected].
From: Baghdasarian
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http://www.glendalenewspress.com/news/opinion/tn-blr-0115-think-again-california-incumbents-face-a-new-challenge,0,123783.story
Zanku Armenian
January 15, 2012
It's going to be a fun-filled year ahead as we try to figure out where
we are going as a country, as a state and as local communities.
If we've seen any lesson thus far, even with the early Iowa Republican
Caucus, every vote counts. In Iowa, Gov. Mitt Romney beat out former
U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum by only eight votes.
While voters could take out their economic frustrations on elected
officials, I think incumbents are expecting it. But California
incumbents should be especially worried because of the convergence of
two rare factors. First, congressional and state representation
districts have been redrawn by the California Citizens Redistricting
Commission. This means incumbents are sorting out the composition of
voters in their new districts and how that will affect their support.
The winning constituency `formula' with which incumbents retained
their seats with their old districts has been remixed. They now have
to understand a different mix of voters. In some cases entire
districts have been eliminated.
For example, for some Burbank-area voters, this means Reps. Howard
Berman and Brad Sherman will compete for your vote because they are
now running for the same district that includes part of the city. It's
like the game `musical chairs' when there is only one seat left.
This will be a heavyweight-boxing match, `Berman vs. Sherman!' Get
your ringside seats. It's going to be a hotly contested race, and your
vote could make the difference.
Adam Schiff, on the other hand, will run for a new 28th Congressional
District. This new district has retained an important part of
Schiff's previous 29th District with the Glendale area, but has lost
key parts east and south of Pasadena, while picking up a new area
stretching to Hollywood, including Little Armenia.
Similar changes have been made to state Assemblyman Mike Gatto's 43rd
District. This gives the districts more concentrated demographics and
will make both seats more susceptible to competition, especially
considering a second new factor.
The second political wildcard in California is that for the first time
we will have `open primaries.' This new election method means the two
candidates with the highest primary votes, regardless of party
affiliation or primary, will move on to compete during the general
election.
For example, in a district where Democrats are still the majority,
such as the ones Schiff or Gatto will be running for, it could result
in two Democrats competing against each other in the November
election.
Democratic incumbents who used to view their party's June primary as
their main election have to deal with a new scenario - once they were
past the party primary, they would coast through general
elections. That may not be the case anymore.
This situation probably concerns both the Democratic and Republican
parties. However, the Democratic Party machinery must be especially
concerned, because with so many Democratic-leaning districts, it could
result in party members breaking ranks and competing against fellow
Democrats.
It has the potential to decentralize power by weakening the ability of
a few party `kingmakers' to protect incumbents. But anything that
weakens the ability to predetermine outcomes is a win for democracy.
Voters are dissatisfied with today's Congress and state
Legislature. Neither body can seem to make decisions until forced to
at the end of their sessions - a sure sign of a broken system.
It's not good enough anymore for an elected official to say `it's not
me, it's them,' referring to a vague collective of their
colleagues. Voters should be saying, `you' are `them.'
California residents took the first step by redrawing districts and
creating
open primaries. The question is whether ordinary citizens will take
the second step by deciding they've had enough and are willing to run
against career politicians.
With new factors that change the playing field, for those who think
they can do a better job, it's an opportunity to challenge the status
quo.
ZANKU ARMENIAN is a resident of Glendale and a corporate communications and
public affairs professional. He can be reached at [email protected].
From: Baghdasarian