Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

ISTANBUL: Former diplomat: Tehran may be planning to divide Iraq

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • ISTANBUL: Former diplomat: Tehran may be planning to divide Iraq

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    Jan 15 2012

    Former diplomat Ä°skit: Tehran may be planning to divide Iraq


    15 January 2012 / YONCA POYRAZ DOÄ?AN, Ä°STANBUL

    Tehran may have plans to divide Iran in order to increase its
    influence in the region following the Arab Spring, which has made the
    region unstable and unpredictable, a former diplomat has told Monday
    Talk, adding that Turkey better be cautious in this time of transition
    in its neighborhood.

    `As pressures increase on Iran, Tehran tries many tactics. For
    example, it threatens to respond to Western sanctions by closing the
    Strait of Hormuz. Tehran may also be planning to divide Iraq,' said
    retired Ambassador Temel Ä°skit, evaluating Turkey's foreign policy
    challenges in 2012.

    `Iraq's division would support Iran's claim to be the regional power.
    We cannot think of an Iraq independent of Iran. Iran has a great
    influence on Shiites,' he also said.

    Ankara and Tehran have recently had meetings in the face of the United
    States' latest sanctions on Iran targeting Tehran's ability to sell
    crude oil. The European Union and Japan are also drawing up sanctions
    on Iran.

    On that and more, Ä°skit addressed the most challenging foreign policy
    questions of this year, answering our questions.

    What do you expect to happen in the Middle East and North Africa in
    2012, especially with regard to Turkey as the country in this region
    where hot developments have been taking place?

    I don't have a crystal ball. But we can look at the present picture
    and discuss what Turkey can do in that environment. There are great
    instabilities in the countries of the region. The closest ones to
    Turkey are in Iraq and Syria. Contrary to the rest of the region,
    northern Iraq has become a place of stability. Even though Turkey
    still does not call that region `Iraqi Kurdistan,' the Kurdish
    administration has become an entity, a semi-state that Turkey
    cooperates with.

    But the rest of Iraq is in turmoil.

    The presence of American troops in Iraq was helping to keep a balance
    between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq, but with the departure of the
    American troops, the balance has gone. Shiite Prime Minister Nouri
    al-Maliki's attempt to arrest one of the country's top Sunni
    politicians, Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, accusing him of running
    a hit squad targeting government officials, ignited the long-lasting
    Shiite-Sunni division. [Hashemi denies the allegations. He is staying
    as a guest of Iraqi Kurdish President Jalal Talabani, out of reach of
    security forces under Baghdad's control.] We don't know how this issue
    is going to evolve. Turkey supports Iraq's unity, but its influence is
    quite limited with regard to developments in Iraq. Turkey does not
    have influence when it comes to Shiites, and Maliki has not refrained
    from confronting Turkey. He is supported by Iran. For Sunnis, the
    benefits of siding with Turkey are not clear since this might
    strengthen the divisive forces in Iraq.

    There are comments suggesting a possible Turkish-Kurdish-Sunni axis.

    There are, but what is it going to lead to? Such a grouping would be
    against Maliki, the Shiites, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. Turkey
    wouldn't be able to afford being in that position; it would be harmful
    for Turkey to take such a biased stance. Turkey should be able to
    protect its objectivity as much as it can. Yes, there is a possibility
    that Iraq will be divided, and the United States would probably not
    have the power to interfere since US troops have left the country.

    `Moscow might provide refuge to Assad'
    How does Iran play a role in that picture?

    As pressures increase on Iran, Tehran tries many tactics. For example,
    it threatens to respond to Western sanctions by closing the Strait of
    Hormuz [a transit route for a fifth of the world's oil]. Tehran may
    also be planning to divide Iraq. Iraq's division would support Iran's
    claim to be the regional power. We cannot think of an Iraq independent
    of Iran. Iran has a great influence on Shiites.

    What would you say about Iran's relations with Syria?

    Iran does not have as direct of an influence on Syria as on Iraq, but
    Iran and Syria are traditional allies. Tehran would not like to see
    [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad fall. Moscow has more influence
    over Syria than Tehran. Russia has maintained support for the
    increasingly isolated Assad, whose nation has been one of Moscow's
    closest strategic partners in the Middle East and a big purchaser of
    its weapons. Russian warships recently docked at a Russian naval
    maintenance and supply facility in the Syrian port of Tartus to
    display support for the Assad government.

    There were news reports that Assad may soon call Russia home.

    It is likely that Moscow will provide Assad refuge, if that means the
    figurehead is gone, but the Assad regime is well and alive. Look at
    what happened in Egypt; Mubarak is gone but the military has the ropes
    now. What will happen in Syria is of utmost importance for Turkey. The
    first concern for Turkey is with regard to the flow of refugees from
    Syria, if growing instability leads to a refugee crisis. Turkey better
    continue to do what it is already doing: support dissidents of that
    country. However, supporting armed opposition groups would be a
    mistake; a military intervention would be unacceptable. Some Western
    writers, especially a number of American commentators, tend to suggest
    the idea that since a non-Muslim power's intervention in Syria would
    not be received well in the region, Turkey should do it because it has
    a claim to regional power status against Iran. This idea carries with
    it the air of provocation. Turkey's recent overconfidence makes it
    exposed to such calls with ulterior motives.

    `Time to be cautious for Turkey in foreign policy'
    Opponents of the Syrian regime have suggested creating a buffer zone
    along the country's borders that would protect civilians and enable
    the army's soldiers to defect. Do you think Turkey can take this
    responsibility on?

    For Turkey to do it, there needs to be a civil war in Syria leading to
    a flow of refugees. Until that happens, Turkey cannot do it, because
    if it does, this buffer zone will be a safe haven for Syria's armed
    opposition. But if thousands of refugees are fleeing Syria, then a
    buffer zone could be established on the Syrian side of the border.
    Even that would be risky because if Syrian armed forces try to attack
    those refugees, Turkey would have to send its fighter jets to the
    area. Back to Turkey's overconfidence, those changes and the situation
    of instability in the region are likely to teach Ankara its limits.

    One incident that tested Ankara's limits was with regard to its policy
    toward Israel. Turkish foreign policy has unnecessarily been taken
    hostage by the situation in Gaza. Another incident involved Iran.
    Ankara's previous policy toward Iran made Turkey a guarantor for
    Tehran, though the situation changed recently as Ankara agreed to host
    NATO's early warning radar as part of a NATO missile defense system
    which is capable of countering ballistic missile threats from Iran.

    With so much instability in its neighborhood, it is time Turkey
    becomes cautious in its foreign policy. It is better for Turkey to
    observe the situation around it carefully. No one knows how the events
    will evolve since there is currently a process of transition. And in a
    transition, being cautious is the most important virtue.

    Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet DavutoÄ?lu visited Tehran last week and
    said Turkey was ready to host further talks with world powers and Iran
    over its nuclear program. In addition, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali
    Larijani said after meeting with Turkish leaders in Ankara that Tehran
    supports the idea. What is happening?

    Those sanctions would make Iran even more cornered as its ability to
    sell oil would be seriously harmed. Iran is already uneasy because its
    main ally in the region, Assad, is in a bad situation, and now comes
    more Western pressure. As I mentioned, to fight its isolation, Iran
    would try to use its influence on the Shiites of Iraq. It is unlikely
    that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz as this will hurt Iran the
    most. Under the circumstances, Iran has another card, the card of
    negotiations. But Iran has to convince the West that it is sincere. It
    is also highly unlikely that the United States and Israel will resort
    to military measures against Iran since this would lead to a deepening
    of the world economic crisis. Therefore, it is likely that
    disagreements between Iran and the West will be long-lasting. In that
    environment, it is good that Turkey has the ability to talk with Iran,
    but that does not mean that Turkey does not have any problems with
    Iran, which may pose a constant threat [once it obtains] nuclear arms.
    Also Iran does not trust Turkey because of our Syria policy and
    because we agreed to host the NATO radar. All in all, relations
    between Turkey and Iran are not very bright, but both Ankara and
    Tehran will avoid serious conflict with each other. In this vein, Iran
    will not actively support the PKK [outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party].
    `2012 to be another lost year with regard to Turkey-EU relations'What
    is your evaluation of Turkish-French relations in light of the recent
    developments with regard to the French parliament's vote on a bill
    that could penalize denial of the `Armenian genocide.'

    It was another example of the emotional reactions of the prime
    minister [Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an] with regard to some foreign policy
    issues. He chose to attack personally French President Nicolas Sarkozy
    -- who we all know had purely political aims in bringing the issue of
    the `Armenian genocide' to the French Parliament as he faces elections
    and is trying to capture the votes of ethnic Armenians living in
    France. He also chose to make comparisons with French atrocities in
    Algeria, which was negated by that country's prime minister. He has
    taken a clear nationalistic, not to say populist, attitude in this
    affair. Prime Minister ErdoÄ?an could instead have attacked more
    pertinently the restriction of freedom of speech in France which that
    bill's passage implies. In other instances Prime Minister ErdoÄ?an
    reflects a religious bias in foreign policy issues. He has made some
    remarkable statements, including that `Muslims do not commit
    genocide.' Another example is the issue of the Gaza blockade, where he
    overreacted and took a clearly partial stance.

    Do you think Turkish-French relations could be negatively affected in
    the long term? And do you think there will be significant changes in
    both countries' relations if Sarkozy does not win the election? There
    is news that Sarkozy is narrowing the lead of his Socialist rival,
    François Hollande, ahead of this year's presidential elections.

    I don't think there will be much change in relations whether Sarkozy
    or Hollande win. This year Europe will be more embroiled in its
    financial problems. And before Greek Cyprus' EU presidential term ends
    and even before elections are held in Greek Cyprus in 2013, there will
    be no progress in Turkey-EU relations. This is not only because of
    France's stance against Turkey's inclusion in the EU but also
    Germany's stance, as well as the general financial crisis in Europe.
    We are likely to see an introverted Europe in 2012.

    Ankara keeps saying that it favors a united Cyprus before next July,
    when the Greek Cypriot administration takes over the rotating helm of
    the EU. Are Turkey's relations going to be cut with the EU during the
    Greek Cypriot presidency?

    It is possible that Turkey will not have any contacts with the term
    president but continue our current relations with other EU
    institutions. We have close contacts and cooperation with many
    European Union institutions, and especially with the European
    Commission. On the other hand, as long as the political climate is the
    same between Turkey and the EU and as long as Turkey refuses to open
    its ports and airports to traffic from Greek Cyprus, we should not
    expect the opening of new chapters in Turkey's accession negotiations
    with the EU. Paradoxically, both sides seem content with the status
    quo.


    ----------------------------------------------------------------

    `Cyprus problem will be extended'
    Do you expect any developments with regard to the long-lasting Cyprus problem?

    There will be no crisis; ties will not be cut off between the Turkish
    and the Greek Cypriot leaders. But the time period to find a solution
    to the Cyprus problem will be prolonged. There is one sensitive issue:
    The Turkish side has said that unless the Cyprus problem is resolved
    by the time Greek Cypriots take over the EU term presidency, the
    two-state solution to the problem will be implemented. This is a big
    statement, almost an ultimatum. We will see if Turkey is going to
    pursue that approach.

    If Turkey pursues a two-state solution, is it going to leave the gas
    reserves to the Greek Cypriots off the island of Cyprus in the south?

    This is a question that needs an answer. Does Turkey have a right to
    tell the Turkish Cypriots to renounce their claims to the gas? Those
    gas sources also belong to the Turkish Cypriots. Unless Turkey takes
    bold steps, the Cyprus problem will linger on.

    Bold steps?
    Turkey could, for example, open Turkish air and sea ports to Greek
    Cypriot traffic. I believe Turkey may take some initiatives to solve
    the problem. Otherwise we will have to go back to square one.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    `Obama likely to win in presidential election'
    There are presidential elections in November in the United States. Do
    you think President Barack Obama is likely to stay president?

    Republican candidates are no match for Obama, especially when it comes
    to foreign policy. And Ankara's relations with Obama are quite good.
    We have a spring time with Washington, especially after Ankara agreed
    to host NATO's early warning radar component as part of a NATO missile
    defense system. Maintaining good relations with the United States will
    be beneficial for Turkey as Ankara will not be able to afford to run
    counter to both Europe and the United States at the same time.


    ----------------------------------------------------------------

    PROFILE
    Retired Ambassador Temel Ä°skit

    He joined the Foreign Ministry in 1963. During his 40-year diplomatic
    career, he served at various Turkish foreign missions and held
    different posts at the Foreign Ministry, including that of director
    general for EU affairs and deputy undersecretary for economic affairs.
    He was also Turkey's first director general of free trade zones. As
    ambassador, he served as Turkey's permanent representative to the
    Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and as
    ambassador to the Czech Republic and to Belgium. After serving as
    Turkey's permanent representative to the Western European Union in
    Brussels from 1999 to 2002, he retired due to the age limit. After
    retiring, Ambassador İskit lectured for five years at Sabancı
    University and Bilgi University. He is presently a columnist at the
    Taraf daily. He has also written a book on diplomacy.

    http://www.todayszaman.com/news-268632-former-diplomat-iskit-tehran-may-be-planning-to-divide-iraq.html




    From: A. Papazian
Working...
X