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Georgia And Possible Complications In Iran

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  • Georgia And Possible Complications In Iran

    GEORGIA AND POSSIBLE COMPLICATIONS IN IRAN

    The Messenger
    Jan 16 2012
    Georgia

    Developments between Iran and the USA are currently the hot topic
    being discussed by the world's media. It is clear that whatever
    comes Georgia will not be able to remain neutral towards the
    situation in the region. Iran is Georgia's neighbour and any kind
    of further deterioration of the situation will influence Georgia
    either directly or indirectly. Georgian politicians and analysts are
    attentively following developments in the situation. According to
    western opinion Iran cannot prove to the international community that
    it is not working on the production of nuclear weaponry. Therefore
    international organizations have imposed sanctions against Iran. As a
    result the threat of possible confrontation between it and the West
    is ever increasing. There are two red lines which the United States
    has drawn up as margins for Iran. The first is that the USA will
    not allow Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz as it is a major route
    for transporting oil worldwide. The second is not allowing Iran to
    produce its own nuclear weapon.

    So far Georgian leadership has not made an official statement on the
    situation. It is understandable as Georgia has good relations with
    its neighbour Iran but at the same time the USA is Georgia's major
    strategic partner. Of course Georgia is not interested at all in any
    kind of military confrontation in the region, as it would be very
    difficult to forecast the outcome of any conflict if unleashed.

    Opposition representatives are predicting that Georgia will support
    the USA in any circumstances and if the US asks it would even allow it
    to deploy its military contingent on its territory. But this creates
    the threat that Georgia might become a target for Iranian missiles.

    There are even speculations that the current process of Saakashvili
    opening many small hospitals around the country is in reality a cover
    for an American project which envisages using these hospitals in the
    event of military mobilization in the region. We repeat however that
    these are just rumours.

    Some analysts have highlighted yet another possibility. As it is known
    Georgia and Iran have a visa free regime between the countries, so in
    the event of military conflict a large number of refugees might try to
    enter Georgia which would definitely be a very serious problem for the
    small country. There is yet another potential threat, this time coming
    from the North, as Russia would try to reinforce its position in the
    South Caucasus and could demand that Georgia allow the transit of its
    military cargo to the Russian military base located in Armenia. It is
    clear that Russia will be trying to do its best to prevent American
    proliferation in Georgia, however of course it will not be prepared to
    directly confront such US moves. Much will depend on the way things
    develop in Iran. If conflict does arise and if it only lasts a short
    while then this will give the advantage to the US and disadvantage
    to Russia, but what if it continues for a longer period of time?

    Georgian analysts also think that Saakashvili and his team will almost
    certainly use any potential conflict to their advantage. So in that
    light a crisis in Iran would definitely influence Georgia's domestic
    as well as foreign politics.




    From: A. Papazian
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