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GEORGIA AND POSSIBLE COMPLICATIONS IN IRAN
The Messenger
Jan 16 2012
Georgia
Developments between Iran and the USA are currently the hot topic
being discussed by the world's media. It is clear that whatever
comes Georgia will not be able to remain neutral towards the
situation in the region. Iran is Georgia's neighbour and any kind
of further deterioration of the situation will influence Georgia
either directly or indirectly. Georgian politicians and analysts are
attentively following developments in the situation. According to
western opinion Iran cannot prove to the international community that
it is not working on the production of nuclear weaponry. Therefore
international organizations have imposed sanctions against Iran. As a
result the threat of possible confrontation between it and the West
is ever increasing. There are two red lines which the United States
has drawn up as margins for Iran. The first is that the USA will
not allow Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz as it is a major route
for transporting oil worldwide. The second is not allowing Iran to
produce its own nuclear weapon.
So far Georgian leadership has not made an official statement on the
situation. It is understandable as Georgia has good relations with
its neighbour Iran but at the same time the USA is Georgia's major
strategic partner. Of course Georgia is not interested at all in any
kind of military confrontation in the region, as it would be very
difficult to forecast the outcome of any conflict if unleashed.
Opposition representatives are predicting that Georgia will support
the USA in any circumstances and if the US asks it would even allow it
to deploy its military contingent on its territory. But this creates
the threat that Georgia might become a target for Iranian missiles.
There are even speculations that the current process of Saakashvili
opening many small hospitals around the country is in reality a cover
for an American project which envisages using these hospitals in the
event of military mobilization in the region. We repeat however that
these are just rumours.
Some analysts have highlighted yet another possibility. As it is known
Georgia and Iran have a visa free regime between the countries, so in
the event of military conflict a large number of refugees might try to
enter Georgia which would definitely be a very serious problem for the
small country. There is yet another potential threat, this time coming
from the North, as Russia would try to reinforce its position in the
South Caucasus and could demand that Georgia allow the transit of its
military cargo to the Russian military base located in Armenia. It is
clear that Russia will be trying to do its best to prevent American
proliferation in Georgia, however of course it will not be prepared to
directly confront such US moves. Much will depend on the way things
develop in Iran. If conflict does arise and if it only lasts a short
while then this will give the advantage to the US and disadvantage
to Russia, but what if it continues for a longer period of time?
Georgian analysts also think that Saakashvili and his team will almost
certainly use any potential conflict to their advantage. So in that
light a crisis in Iran would definitely influence Georgia's domestic
as well as foreign politics.
From: A. Papazian
The Messenger
Jan 16 2012
Georgia
Developments between Iran and the USA are currently the hot topic
being discussed by the world's media. It is clear that whatever
comes Georgia will not be able to remain neutral towards the
situation in the region. Iran is Georgia's neighbour and any kind
of further deterioration of the situation will influence Georgia
either directly or indirectly. Georgian politicians and analysts are
attentively following developments in the situation. According to
western opinion Iran cannot prove to the international community that
it is not working on the production of nuclear weaponry. Therefore
international organizations have imposed sanctions against Iran. As a
result the threat of possible confrontation between it and the West
is ever increasing. There are two red lines which the United States
has drawn up as margins for Iran. The first is that the USA will
not allow Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz as it is a major route
for transporting oil worldwide. The second is not allowing Iran to
produce its own nuclear weapon.
So far Georgian leadership has not made an official statement on the
situation. It is understandable as Georgia has good relations with
its neighbour Iran but at the same time the USA is Georgia's major
strategic partner. Of course Georgia is not interested at all in any
kind of military confrontation in the region, as it would be very
difficult to forecast the outcome of any conflict if unleashed.
Opposition representatives are predicting that Georgia will support
the USA in any circumstances and if the US asks it would even allow it
to deploy its military contingent on its territory. But this creates
the threat that Georgia might become a target for Iranian missiles.
There are even speculations that the current process of Saakashvili
opening many small hospitals around the country is in reality a cover
for an American project which envisages using these hospitals in the
event of military mobilization in the region. We repeat however that
these are just rumours.
Some analysts have highlighted yet another possibility. As it is known
Georgia and Iran have a visa free regime between the countries, so in
the event of military conflict a large number of refugees might try to
enter Georgia which would definitely be a very serious problem for the
small country. There is yet another potential threat, this time coming
from the North, as Russia would try to reinforce its position in the
South Caucasus and could demand that Georgia allow the transit of its
military cargo to the Russian military base located in Armenia. It is
clear that Russia will be trying to do its best to prevent American
proliferation in Georgia, however of course it will not be prepared to
directly confront such US moves. Much will depend on the way things
develop in Iran. If conflict does arise and if it only lasts a short
while then this will give the advantage to the US and disadvantage
to Russia, but what if it continues for a longer period of time?
Georgian analysts also think that Saakashvili and his team will almost
certainly use any potential conflict to their advantage. So in that
light a crisis in Iran would definitely influence Georgia's domestic
as well as foreign politics.
From: A. Papazian