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IF WAR IS TO START TOMORROW
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24859.html
Published: 13:32:22 - 19/01/2012
In fact, in the past three or four years Armenia has taken important
steps to form an analytic community. The complete understanding of the
necessary format of the given process will take long but the current
events in the Near East and related to Iran led Armenian analysts
to the understanding of certain typical conditions of the unfolding
regional processes.
It should be noted that the reaction of Armenia to these events is
adequate, and the society is ready to accept possible challenges
without any specific worry and with readiness to insist on their own
national interests. In addition, Armenia accepted this situation as
a game of great interest, since serious changes await the Near East
and the adjacent regions and Armenia gets a chance to a geopolitical
breakthrough.
Russia is taking measures to prepare for possible developments and is
likely to hold unprecedented military training in the region of the
Caucasus. Most probably, it will be accompanied with strengthening of
military groups in Russia on the strategic southern direction. Armenia
must not keep behind and must prepare its military force. It may
be possible to destroy a considerable part, if not the whole of
the armaments of Azerbaijan, including the air force, artillery and
armored cars, as well as important infrastructures and the oil and
gas facilities in case information on the respective intentions of
Azerbaijan are received.
No doubt if Azerbaijan supports the sanctions on Iran, its territory
will be considered analogically to the Strait of Hormuz. No doubt
Azerbaijan's position will follow that of Turkey, while Turkey is
trying to balance between Iran and the United States, that is,
it will support sanctions but will hardly become engaged in the
military actions.
However, military actions against Iran are the least possible
scenario. First of all, it is necessary to understand that the United
States will not make a decision outside NATO, and their partners in
NATO are not interested in such a turn, which will lead to even greater
doubts in Washington. Presently, Turkey is aware of the intentions
of the United States and understands that neither the United States,
nor Europe is interested in war on Syria or Iran. The scenario on the
possibility that third countries, namely Israel, may launch a war is
bullshit, and such scenarios are used for the sake of propaganda. Now
Turkey does not intend to push Azerbaijan to war, which may lead to the
necessity for its interference. Turkey did not dare to launch military
actions against Syria and will not, considering the South Caucasus,
if Azerbaijan does not suffer a military catastrophe. However, can
Turkey initiate an Armenian-Azerbaijani war if Russia or the United
States are interested in a war in the region?
Iran is at the center of regional focus but Iran is viewed by the
Americans as an important factor for setting up a new geopolitical
configuration in the region and the neighboring regions. The Iranian
factor may lead to reformatting in the area of the Persian Gulf, Iraq,
Eastern Mediterranean and the areas populated with Kurds, touching upon
the territory of Turkey as well. Analogically, it may happen in the
South Caucasus where a favorable situation has occurred for the balance
of forces and limitation of the expansion of Russia, as well as Turkey.
For already a number of years the Americans have showed no interest
in the Karabakh issue and treat this situation like a reserve for
their regional policy. Russia was interested in war between Armenia
and Azerbaijan in the period when it was weak in the region. Now that
Russia continues its efforts to imitate the settlement of the Karabakh
issue, it is not interested in war. The United States are interested
in a war because the war would enable their immediate presence in the
South Caucasus, unfolding the "third force". The Russian-Georgian war
did not enable the Americans to fulfill this plan, especially that
Turkey and Russia appeared to have similar positions. Now that Turkey
has accepted the conditions of the United States for agreed action, in
an effort to demonstrate independence, the breakthrough of the United
States in the South Caucasus will pass in more favorable circumstances.
In this scenario, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan are
probable, and the United States will be interested in utter military
and political defeat of Azerbaijan and deployment of the military
contingent of NATO in the region. The United States needs total defeat
of Azerbaijan because it will enable it to fulfill the policy of
double control of the South Caucasus, in regard to Turkey and Russia.
It is possible that I am mistaken, I would like to know the opinion
and evaluation of colleagues.
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24859.html
Published: 13:32:22 - 19/01/2012
In fact, in the past three or four years Armenia has taken important
steps to form an analytic community. The complete understanding of the
necessary format of the given process will take long but the current
events in the Near East and related to Iran led Armenian analysts
to the understanding of certain typical conditions of the unfolding
regional processes.
It should be noted that the reaction of Armenia to these events is
adequate, and the society is ready to accept possible challenges
without any specific worry and with readiness to insist on their own
national interests. In addition, Armenia accepted this situation as
a game of great interest, since serious changes await the Near East
and the adjacent regions and Armenia gets a chance to a geopolitical
breakthrough.
Russia is taking measures to prepare for possible developments and is
likely to hold unprecedented military training in the region of the
Caucasus. Most probably, it will be accompanied with strengthening of
military groups in Russia on the strategic southern direction. Armenia
must not keep behind and must prepare its military force. It may
be possible to destroy a considerable part, if not the whole of
the armaments of Azerbaijan, including the air force, artillery and
armored cars, as well as important infrastructures and the oil and
gas facilities in case information on the respective intentions of
Azerbaijan are received.
No doubt if Azerbaijan supports the sanctions on Iran, its territory
will be considered analogically to the Strait of Hormuz. No doubt
Azerbaijan's position will follow that of Turkey, while Turkey is
trying to balance between Iran and the United States, that is,
it will support sanctions but will hardly become engaged in the
military actions.
However, military actions against Iran are the least possible
scenario. First of all, it is necessary to understand that the United
States will not make a decision outside NATO, and their partners in
NATO are not interested in such a turn, which will lead to even greater
doubts in Washington. Presently, Turkey is aware of the intentions
of the United States and understands that neither the United States,
nor Europe is interested in war on Syria or Iran. The scenario on the
possibility that third countries, namely Israel, may launch a war is
bullshit, and such scenarios are used for the sake of propaganda. Now
Turkey does not intend to push Azerbaijan to war, which may lead to the
necessity for its interference. Turkey did not dare to launch military
actions against Syria and will not, considering the South Caucasus,
if Azerbaijan does not suffer a military catastrophe. However, can
Turkey initiate an Armenian-Azerbaijani war if Russia or the United
States are interested in a war in the region?
Iran is at the center of regional focus but Iran is viewed by the
Americans as an important factor for setting up a new geopolitical
configuration in the region and the neighboring regions. The Iranian
factor may lead to reformatting in the area of the Persian Gulf, Iraq,
Eastern Mediterranean and the areas populated with Kurds, touching upon
the territory of Turkey as well. Analogically, it may happen in the
South Caucasus where a favorable situation has occurred for the balance
of forces and limitation of the expansion of Russia, as well as Turkey.
For already a number of years the Americans have showed no interest
in the Karabakh issue and treat this situation like a reserve for
their regional policy. Russia was interested in war between Armenia
and Azerbaijan in the period when it was weak in the region. Now that
Russia continues its efforts to imitate the settlement of the Karabakh
issue, it is not interested in war. The United States are interested
in a war because the war would enable their immediate presence in the
South Caucasus, unfolding the "third force". The Russian-Georgian war
did not enable the Americans to fulfill this plan, especially that
Turkey and Russia appeared to have similar positions. Now that Turkey
has accepted the conditions of the United States for agreed action, in
an effort to demonstrate independence, the breakthrough of the United
States in the South Caucasus will pass in more favorable circumstances.
In this scenario, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan are
probable, and the United States will be interested in utter military
and political defeat of Azerbaijan and deployment of the military
contingent of NATO in the region. The United States needs total defeat
of Azerbaijan because it will enable it to fulfill the policy of
double control of the South Caucasus, in regard to Turkey and Russia.
It is possible that I am mistaken, I would like to know the opinion
and evaluation of colleagues.