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  • Manoeuvres Of Special Importance

    MANOEUVRES OF SPECIAL IMPORTANCE
    by political analyst Sergey Ilich Konovalov

    Nezavisimaya Gazeta
    Jan 16 2012
    Russia

    The General Staff is developing a plan for large-scale strategic
    exercises based on the premise of a possible attack by Israel or the
    United States against Iran.

    The Russian Defence Ministry has begun preparation for the
    "Caucasus-2012" ["Kavkaz-2012"] strategic command staff exercise.

    According to official information from the military department,
    compared to last year's similar manoeuvres, these exercises will be
    on a larger scale and closer to current military-political realities.

    Manoeuvres will take place not only in Southern Russia but also on the
    territory of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Armenia. The "Caucasus-2012"
    strategic command staff exercise, scheduled for September, will be
    the main event in the armed forces' activity this year. The scenario
    for the exercises is currently under development, and in the opinion
    of military experts preparation for the command staff exercise will
    include the actual rehearsal of combat training tasks in connection
    with a potential war by the United States and a number of other
    countries against Iran and other potential conflicts in the Caspian
    and South Caucasus region.

    This is not the first year that exercises with this name have been
    conducted. Exercises of the same name were held in 2008, from 16 July
    through 2 August, near the borders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It
    was largely thanks to the "Caucasus-2008" exercises that Russia,
    albeit with unjustified costs and losses, was able to beat Georgia
    in the brief week-long war. Manoeuvres of this kind later became
    traditional for troops deployed in the Southern Military District.

    Let us note, first, that this year's exercises will not be
    operational-tactical, but strategic exercises. That is, the tasks
    in the Southern Military District's zone of responsibility will
    be rehearsed not only by all categories and branches of the armed
    forces (including the Air Force, Navy, Strategic Missile Forces,
    Military-Space Defence Forces, and Air Defence Forces) but also by
    other security structures - the MVD [Ministry of Internal Affairs],
    FSB [Federal Security Service], Federal Protection Service, Ministry
    for Emergency Situations, and so forth. That is, the country's entire
    military organization will take part in rehearsing the command staff
    exercise tasks. Second, during the manoeuvres one of the main aims
    will be the rehearsal of new net-centric types of combat operation
    (that is involving all means of electronic and space surveillance
    and communications, unmanned aircraft, high-precision weapons, and so
    forth) using new automated control systems. This was first announced
    at official level in December of last year by Chief of General Staff
    Army General Nikolay Makarov during a meeting with foreign states'
    military attaches.

    The military leader's words are backed up by specific deeds. The
    Southern Military District's official sources report that formations
    stationed in the North Caucasus have received nearly 20 modernized
    command staff vehicles (they are included in the resources of every
    motorized or armoured battalion) which use the GLONASS system for
    geolocation and intelligence. Incidentally, this system has been
    installed on all new helicopters and combat aircraft (the Southern
    Military District's pool of these has been renewed almost 100 per cent)
    conducting surveillance in the district's zone of responsibility and
    has also been installed on artillery and air defence weaponry.

    Within this context the troops have been provided with the new
    "Barnaul-T" air defence automated control system. This system already
    monitors air space not only above Russia but also above the entire
    territory of the South Caucasus. This is of considerable importance,
    since the 102d Russian military base, which is stationed in Armenia,
    is separated from the Southern Military District's main grouping.

    Candidate of Military Sciences Colonel Anatoliy Tsyganok, leader of
    the Centre for Military Forecasting, believes that "it looks as though
    preparations for the 'Caucasus-2012' command staff exercises have
    begun already largely because of the increased military tension in
    the Persian Gulf zone." "Several post-Soviet countries of the South
    Caucasus could be involved in a potential war against Iran. How in
    that eventuality are we to ensure the ability to function of the
    Russian troop groupings stationed abroad, in Armenia, for instance?

    The General Staff will evidently be planning some preemptive measures,
    which will include learning how to organize rear supplies for the
    troops under critical conditions," the expert says.

    To corroborate his assumptions, Tsyganok cites yesterday's announcement
    by Southern Military District press service chief Igor Gorbul that the
    district's military pipelayers "within the framework of preparation
    for the 'Caucasus-2012' strategic command exercises have started
    classes to develop practical skills associated with deploying main
    pipelines and pumping fuel." Let us note that only the Russian Army
    has pipelaying troops as a troop category. In June 2011, for instance,
    during tactical exercises they laid the 75-kilometre long main pipeline
    from the North Ossetian population centre of Ardon along the Caucasus
    ridge to the border with South Ossetia.

    Of course, the "Caucasus-2012" command staff exercises, the
    preparations for them, and the rehearsal of the relevant tasks are
    of a planned nature. "But that does not mean they will not be amended
    and are not linked to the specific military-political situation in the
    Caucasus region, where the Russian Federation has specific geopolitical
    interests," Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy for Geopolitical
    Problems, believes. "It is to defend these interests that manoeuvres,
    firing exercises, and so forth are being organized."

    It looks as though the situation on the country's Southern borders
    and in particular the possibility that Israel or the United States
    could strike against Iran is seriously perturbing the Russian military
    leadership.

    [translated from Russian]

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