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WHY RUSSIA IS PLANNING IRAN WAR GAMES
by Fred Weir Correspondent
The Christian Science Monitor
January 17, 2012 Tuesday
Russia has reportedly ordered the military to plan war games to deal
with potential spillover from a US-Iran conflict.
As tensions ratchet up in the Persian Gulf, the Kremlin is signaling
that it will use all its diplomatic influence to oppose war and,
according to a leading Moscow newspaper, has ordered the military to
prepare for any possible spillover from a conflict between Iran and
the US into the sensitive post-Soviet Caucasus region.
Russia will block any further sanctions against Iran in the UN Security
Council, a Foreign Ministry official said Tuesday, because it believes
rising tensions could trigger a conflict that would destabilize the
wider region. Last week Russian deputy prime minister and former
ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin warned that any Western attack on
Iran would constitute "a direct threat to [Russian] national security."
The independent Moscow daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported Monday that
this year's annual military exercises in Russia's south, Kavkaz 2012,
will be much larger than usual and organized around the premise of
a war that begins with an attack on Iran but spreads to neighboring
Armenia and Azerbaijan, and draws Russia into a regional maelstrom.
The newspaper said the war games, which are usually confined to
Russian territory, might this year include maneuvers in the breakaway
Georgian statelets of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and perhaps also
in Russian-allied Armenia.
"We believe that sanctions relative to Iran have lost their
usefulness," Gennady Gatilov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, told
a Moscow press conference Tuesday. "We will oppose any new resolution
[on UN sanctions against Iran]....
"Russia would consider any use of force against the territory of Iran
unacceptable. That would make the situation even more critical....
Unfortunately, many [Western] government leaders are not restraining
themselves and are speaking openly about a military strike against
Iran," Mr. Gatilov added.
A harsh sanctions regime, signed into law by President Obama two weeks
ago, would target Iran's ability to earn cash through oil exports by
penalizing Western companies who clear payments through Iran's central
bank. The European Union could enact its own sanctions against Iranian
oil exports as early as next week.
Doesn't want nuclear weapons in Iran, but doesn't want war
Russian experts say that Moscow opposes Iran's alleged drive for
atomic weapons, but may fear the consequences of a military strike
aimed at curbing the country's nuclear program more.
"War in Iran could create a new situation in the wider Caucasus and
the Caspian Basin, which would a very serious challenge to Russia,"
says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a leading
Moscow-based foreign policy journal. "There is a high degree of
uncertainty about what would happen in neighboring regions. How would
it affect the situation around Nagorno Karabakh, for instance?"
Armenia and Azerbaijan (see map here) fought a savage war in the
1990s over the tiny Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno Karabakh,
which ended with Armenia annexing the territory and some surrounding
regions. Azerbaijan has never accepted that outcome, but its desire
for revenge has been checked by intensive international diplomacy.
"The situation around Karabakh is stable now, but the status quo could
be destroyed by an external shock, such as war in next-door Iran,"
says Mr. Lukyanov. "For Russia, this would pose an impossible dilemma.
That's why upcoming military exercises will be designed to address
various possible outcomes and find ways to deal with them. . . Russia
is absolutely not interested in war breaking out."
Secret benefits for Russia
But, he adds, Russia might also "secretly benefit" from any US attack
on Iran as long as it didn't produce pro-Western regime change in that
country. Prices for oil, Russia's main source of foreign exchange,
would skyrocket, at least in the short term.
"The most likely outcome is that the US would become bogged down in
another complicated, long-term conflict," Lukyanov says. "That means US
attention would be less directed than ever on the post-Soviet region,
and that would be good for Moscow."
The Russo-Georgian August 2008 war came just days after the Russian
military completed its Kavkaz 2008 war games in the north Caucasus,
a conflict that ended with Russia declaring South Ossetia and
Abkhazia fully independent from Georgia. Tensions between Russia
and NATO-friendly Georgia continue to this day, and might also be
deeply complicated by any conflict that breaks out between the US
and nearby Iran.
Mr. Rogozin, the Russian deputy prime minister, when asked to clarify
his earlier comment that war against Iran would create a threat
to Russia's national security, told journalists Tuesday that "any
ratcheting up of tensions on Iran can bring nothing useful, it would
lead to a catastrophe in the region.... Russia is doing everything
it can from the point of view of diplomacy to resolve the conflict,"
he added.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
by Fred Weir Correspondent
The Christian Science Monitor
January 17, 2012 Tuesday
Russia has reportedly ordered the military to plan war games to deal
with potential spillover from a US-Iran conflict.
As tensions ratchet up in the Persian Gulf, the Kremlin is signaling
that it will use all its diplomatic influence to oppose war and,
according to a leading Moscow newspaper, has ordered the military to
prepare for any possible spillover from a conflict between Iran and
the US into the sensitive post-Soviet Caucasus region.
Russia will block any further sanctions against Iran in the UN Security
Council, a Foreign Ministry official said Tuesday, because it believes
rising tensions could trigger a conflict that would destabilize the
wider region. Last week Russian deputy prime minister and former
ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin warned that any Western attack on
Iran would constitute "a direct threat to [Russian] national security."
The independent Moscow daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported Monday that
this year's annual military exercises in Russia's south, Kavkaz 2012,
will be much larger than usual and organized around the premise of
a war that begins with an attack on Iran but spreads to neighboring
Armenia and Azerbaijan, and draws Russia into a regional maelstrom.
The newspaper said the war games, which are usually confined to
Russian territory, might this year include maneuvers in the breakaway
Georgian statelets of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and perhaps also
in Russian-allied Armenia.
"We believe that sanctions relative to Iran have lost their
usefulness," Gennady Gatilov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, told
a Moscow press conference Tuesday. "We will oppose any new resolution
[on UN sanctions against Iran]....
"Russia would consider any use of force against the territory of Iran
unacceptable. That would make the situation even more critical....
Unfortunately, many [Western] government leaders are not restraining
themselves and are speaking openly about a military strike against
Iran," Mr. Gatilov added.
A harsh sanctions regime, signed into law by President Obama two weeks
ago, would target Iran's ability to earn cash through oil exports by
penalizing Western companies who clear payments through Iran's central
bank. The European Union could enact its own sanctions against Iranian
oil exports as early as next week.
Doesn't want nuclear weapons in Iran, but doesn't want war
Russian experts say that Moscow opposes Iran's alleged drive for
atomic weapons, but may fear the consequences of a military strike
aimed at curbing the country's nuclear program more.
"War in Iran could create a new situation in the wider Caucasus and
the Caspian Basin, which would a very serious challenge to Russia,"
says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a leading
Moscow-based foreign policy journal. "There is a high degree of
uncertainty about what would happen in neighboring regions. How would
it affect the situation around Nagorno Karabakh, for instance?"
Armenia and Azerbaijan (see map here) fought a savage war in the
1990s over the tiny Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno Karabakh,
which ended with Armenia annexing the territory and some surrounding
regions. Azerbaijan has never accepted that outcome, but its desire
for revenge has been checked by intensive international diplomacy.
"The situation around Karabakh is stable now, but the status quo could
be destroyed by an external shock, such as war in next-door Iran,"
says Mr. Lukyanov. "For Russia, this would pose an impossible dilemma.
That's why upcoming military exercises will be designed to address
various possible outcomes and find ways to deal with them. . . Russia
is absolutely not interested in war breaking out."
Secret benefits for Russia
But, he adds, Russia might also "secretly benefit" from any US attack
on Iran as long as it didn't produce pro-Western regime change in that
country. Prices for oil, Russia's main source of foreign exchange,
would skyrocket, at least in the short term.
"The most likely outcome is that the US would become bogged down in
another complicated, long-term conflict," Lukyanov says. "That means US
attention would be less directed than ever on the post-Soviet region,
and that would be good for Moscow."
The Russo-Georgian August 2008 war came just days after the Russian
military completed its Kavkaz 2008 war games in the north Caucasus,
a conflict that ended with Russia declaring South Ossetia and
Abkhazia fully independent from Georgia. Tensions between Russia
and NATO-friendly Georgia continue to this day, and might also be
deeply complicated by any conflict that breaks out between the US
and nearby Iran.
Mr. Rogozin, the Russian deputy prime minister, when asked to clarify
his earlier comment that war against Iran would create a threat
to Russia's national security, told journalists Tuesday that "any
ratcheting up of tensions on Iran can bring nothing useful, it would
lead to a catastrophe in the region.... Russia is doing everything
it can from the point of view of diplomacy to resolve the conflict,"
he added.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress