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WHAT WILL GEORGIA FACE IN CASE OF WAR IN IRAN?
by Eka Basilaia
Rezonansi
Jan 19 2012
Georgia
"In fact, in two week's time, we might be witnessing US military action
against Iran," expert Igor Korotchenko, a member of the Russian Defence
Ministry Public Council Presidium, predicted. For the second time,
experts of the Russian government specify the date of the attack
on Iran. At the end of 2011, high-ranking officials of the Russian
Foreign Ministry claimed that that they were informed about the date
Israel and the United States were starting an attack.
Georgia to face "extremely difficult" situation
According to Georgian experts, the two-week period is not realistic.
However, everyone expects war to start this year, and as expert in
Caucasus issues Mamuka Areshidze said, it will place Georgia in an
extremely difficult situation. On the one hand, it might become a
logistic base for the attack - airfields and hospitals, which contains
elements of danger. On the other hand, Russia will by all means aim to
demonstrate its strength in the South Caucasus and might even carry
out a land military operation to establish communications with the
Gyumri base [in Armenia].
There has been a smell of gunpowder regarding the situation around
Iran since the very first days of 2012. At the beginning of the year,
several scientists involved in the nuclear programme were killed
in a terrorist attack. According to the Iranian government, their
scientists are being hunted by the Israeli and US special services,
but this will not stop their programme.
Since then, preventive statements between the conflicting sides have
become increasingly sharp. The Iranian side has started speaking
about blocking the Hormuz Strait. Pentagon head Leon Panetta told BBC
that the United States will not agree to blocking the Hormuz Strait,
adding that Washington will be ready to carry out serious forceful
measures against Iran.
The Pentagon head noted once again that in case Iran creates nuclear
weapons, Washington will have to take retaliatory measures. I think
Tehran should know that in case it starts the procedure, it will be
stopped, the high-ranking US official said.
Russia taking measures in view of increasing US military presence
in Gulf
According the Russian expert, the United States is openly increasing
its military potential in the Gulf.
"Soon, another US aircraft carrier is going to enter the Gulf. And
the US aircraft carriers never sail to places alone. They are always
escorted by other vessels including a couple of multifunctional
submarines," Igor Korotchenko said.
In addition to this, Russia did not rule out its participation in
the conflict in case Israel and the United States launch an attack on
Iran. According to the [Russian] Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper, given
the probability, the General Staff of the Russian Defence Ministry is
working on a plan for the Kavkaz large-scale military drills, which,
unlike those carried out in previous years, is going to be strategic
rather than operational or tactical.
As Mamuka Areshidze put it, "if Georgia becomes involved in the
military operation, irrespective of the kind of involvement, it is sure
to experience extreme difficulties. According to certain assessments,
Georgia is going to be used as a logistical supply base - airfields
and hospitals - and this already contains elements of danger. Although
the result is going to be unpleasant, it is going to be minor compared
with measures Russia might carry out".
According to him [Areshidze], the Russian war engine is today
half-ready to become involved in the processes taking place in Iran
or at least to demonstrate strength. The efficiency of the strength
is a different issue, but something like this can happen.
Mamuka Areshidze: "Today, [Russia's] Caspian Fleet is completely
mobilized and aims to defend the Caspian sector controlled at present
by Iran. All the missile ships have been mobilized there. On the other
hand, the only Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov has already entered
the Tartus military base in Syria. According to unverified reports,
the aircraft carrier is escorted by several Russian nuclear submarines.
"All this means that the Russian military preparations are under way.
In addition to this, military exercises are getting started. Despite
the fact that Kavkaz 2012 is due in September and the 149th and 153rd
armies stationed on either sides of the Caucasus mountain ridge are
not yet in fighting order, the development of processes requires
that they be in fighting order by September. We should not rule out
that the 2012 exercises are a disguise and both armies are in full
readiness. One thing I know for sure is that an additional contingent
of military men fulfilling unimportant duties has been withdrawn from
the Gyumri base. Apart from this, some of the military men have been
moved to the Iran-Armenia border.
Russia to attempt creating corridor via Georgian territory
"We should not rule out that if a military attack is launched on Iran,
Russia will want to create a corridor between the Gyumri base and
so-called South Ossetia through Borjomi and Javakheti [regions of
Georgia]. The Georgian leadership will not allow Russia to transport
military cargoes via Georgian air or land. Such a scenario is quite
possible.
"Russia is not likely to directly support Iran. But in case of an
attack, Russia will reportedly start consolidating its positions in
the South Caucasus. Russia is not satisfied with its current position
in the South Caucasus. In case the US influence on Iran increases,
Russia will lose South Caucasus, Armenia in first place, which it is
not going to accept.
"It is rather difficult to predict what is going to happen. We are
in the geopolitical centre, but on the information periphery. That is
why I find it difficult to say whether an attack on Iran is going to
start in two weeks or four weeks. However, conclusions of many experts
make it clear that in May, Iran is sure to have nuclear weapons. That
is why, I think that it is highly likely that the attack will start
before May, and it is Israel that will start the operation, not the
United Sates."
According to him [Areshidze], what matters is that the general,
who was one of the heads of the Iranian nuclear programme was killed.
Several other persons of the same kind were also killed, and all this
happened at an Iranian military base. I do not know whether these
murders will hinder the programme or not".
Russia "only problem" for Georgia
According to military expert Giorgi Tavdgiridze, "there are no threats
for Georgia coming from Iran. However, there is a danger coming from
the Russian side. There is a danger that Russia will try to get hold
of Georgian communications and get big dividends from the conflict
by bargaining with the United States".
Giorgi Tavdgiridze: "The only problem is Russia, which is making
statements , threatening that it is not going to stand idle in case
Israel and the United States start any type of operation against Iran.
Russia says so, but does not specify what particular measures it is
going to take or how it is going to support Iran. The only statement
we are aware of is that Russia is planning large-scale military drills
Kavkaz 2012. We have been informed indirectly that Russia is going
to bring its war engine to fighting order and put political pressure
on the West.
"We can presume that in case Russia decides to give Iran not only
verbal support but a real one, too, it will find it necessary to have
land communications with its outpost closest to Iran - the Gyumri
base in Armenia. That is why there is strong likelihood that it will
carry out a military operation to control the Georgian Military Road
[connecting Russia with east Georgia] and the communications between
Russia and Armenia. This is just likely and I doubt that Russia will
dare to give military support to Iran. Russia has no potential to do
so. However, it might become possible, if we do nothing and if the
political situation gets destabilized. In case there is [appropriate]
political background for Russia to embark on an adventure like this,
there is every likelihood that Russia will try to get hold of Georgian
communications, bargain with the United States as equal and get rather
big dividends from the conflict.
[translated from Georgian]
by Eka Basilaia
Rezonansi
Jan 19 2012
Georgia
"In fact, in two week's time, we might be witnessing US military action
against Iran," expert Igor Korotchenko, a member of the Russian Defence
Ministry Public Council Presidium, predicted. For the second time,
experts of the Russian government specify the date of the attack
on Iran. At the end of 2011, high-ranking officials of the Russian
Foreign Ministry claimed that that they were informed about the date
Israel and the United States were starting an attack.
Georgia to face "extremely difficult" situation
According to Georgian experts, the two-week period is not realistic.
However, everyone expects war to start this year, and as expert in
Caucasus issues Mamuka Areshidze said, it will place Georgia in an
extremely difficult situation. On the one hand, it might become a
logistic base for the attack - airfields and hospitals, which contains
elements of danger. On the other hand, Russia will by all means aim to
demonstrate its strength in the South Caucasus and might even carry
out a land military operation to establish communications with the
Gyumri base [in Armenia].
There has been a smell of gunpowder regarding the situation around
Iran since the very first days of 2012. At the beginning of the year,
several scientists involved in the nuclear programme were killed
in a terrorist attack. According to the Iranian government, their
scientists are being hunted by the Israeli and US special services,
but this will not stop their programme.
Since then, preventive statements between the conflicting sides have
become increasingly sharp. The Iranian side has started speaking
about blocking the Hormuz Strait. Pentagon head Leon Panetta told BBC
that the United States will not agree to blocking the Hormuz Strait,
adding that Washington will be ready to carry out serious forceful
measures against Iran.
The Pentagon head noted once again that in case Iran creates nuclear
weapons, Washington will have to take retaliatory measures. I think
Tehran should know that in case it starts the procedure, it will be
stopped, the high-ranking US official said.
Russia taking measures in view of increasing US military presence
in Gulf
According the Russian expert, the United States is openly increasing
its military potential in the Gulf.
"Soon, another US aircraft carrier is going to enter the Gulf. And
the US aircraft carriers never sail to places alone. They are always
escorted by other vessels including a couple of multifunctional
submarines," Igor Korotchenko said.
In addition to this, Russia did not rule out its participation in
the conflict in case Israel and the United States launch an attack on
Iran. According to the [Russian] Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper, given
the probability, the General Staff of the Russian Defence Ministry is
working on a plan for the Kavkaz large-scale military drills, which,
unlike those carried out in previous years, is going to be strategic
rather than operational or tactical.
As Mamuka Areshidze put it, "if Georgia becomes involved in the
military operation, irrespective of the kind of involvement, it is sure
to experience extreme difficulties. According to certain assessments,
Georgia is going to be used as a logistical supply base - airfields
and hospitals - and this already contains elements of danger. Although
the result is going to be unpleasant, it is going to be minor compared
with measures Russia might carry out".
According to him [Areshidze], the Russian war engine is today
half-ready to become involved in the processes taking place in Iran
or at least to demonstrate strength. The efficiency of the strength
is a different issue, but something like this can happen.
Mamuka Areshidze: "Today, [Russia's] Caspian Fleet is completely
mobilized and aims to defend the Caspian sector controlled at present
by Iran. All the missile ships have been mobilized there. On the other
hand, the only Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov has already entered
the Tartus military base in Syria. According to unverified reports,
the aircraft carrier is escorted by several Russian nuclear submarines.
"All this means that the Russian military preparations are under way.
In addition to this, military exercises are getting started. Despite
the fact that Kavkaz 2012 is due in September and the 149th and 153rd
armies stationed on either sides of the Caucasus mountain ridge are
not yet in fighting order, the development of processes requires
that they be in fighting order by September. We should not rule out
that the 2012 exercises are a disguise and both armies are in full
readiness. One thing I know for sure is that an additional contingent
of military men fulfilling unimportant duties has been withdrawn from
the Gyumri base. Apart from this, some of the military men have been
moved to the Iran-Armenia border.
Russia to attempt creating corridor via Georgian territory
"We should not rule out that if a military attack is launched on Iran,
Russia will want to create a corridor between the Gyumri base and
so-called South Ossetia through Borjomi and Javakheti [regions of
Georgia]. The Georgian leadership will not allow Russia to transport
military cargoes via Georgian air or land. Such a scenario is quite
possible.
"Russia is not likely to directly support Iran. But in case of an
attack, Russia will reportedly start consolidating its positions in
the South Caucasus. Russia is not satisfied with its current position
in the South Caucasus. In case the US influence on Iran increases,
Russia will lose South Caucasus, Armenia in first place, which it is
not going to accept.
"It is rather difficult to predict what is going to happen. We are
in the geopolitical centre, but on the information periphery. That is
why I find it difficult to say whether an attack on Iran is going to
start in two weeks or four weeks. However, conclusions of many experts
make it clear that in May, Iran is sure to have nuclear weapons. That
is why, I think that it is highly likely that the attack will start
before May, and it is Israel that will start the operation, not the
United Sates."
According to him [Areshidze], what matters is that the general,
who was one of the heads of the Iranian nuclear programme was killed.
Several other persons of the same kind were also killed, and all this
happened at an Iranian military base. I do not know whether these
murders will hinder the programme or not".
Russia "only problem" for Georgia
According to military expert Giorgi Tavdgiridze, "there are no threats
for Georgia coming from Iran. However, there is a danger coming from
the Russian side. There is a danger that Russia will try to get hold
of Georgian communications and get big dividends from the conflict
by bargaining with the United States".
Giorgi Tavdgiridze: "The only problem is Russia, which is making
statements , threatening that it is not going to stand idle in case
Israel and the United States start any type of operation against Iran.
Russia says so, but does not specify what particular measures it is
going to take or how it is going to support Iran. The only statement
we are aware of is that Russia is planning large-scale military drills
Kavkaz 2012. We have been informed indirectly that Russia is going
to bring its war engine to fighting order and put political pressure
on the West.
"We can presume that in case Russia decides to give Iran not only
verbal support but a real one, too, it will find it necessary to have
land communications with its outpost closest to Iran - the Gyumri
base in Armenia. That is why there is strong likelihood that it will
carry out a military operation to control the Georgian Military Road
[connecting Russia with east Georgia] and the communications between
Russia and Armenia. This is just likely and I doubt that Russia will
dare to give military support to Iran. Russia has no potential to do
so. However, it might become possible, if we do nothing and if the
political situation gets destabilized. In case there is [appropriate]
political background for Russia to embark on an adventure like this,
there is every likelihood that Russia will try to get hold of Georgian
communications, bargain with the United States as equal and get rather
big dividends from the conflict.
[translated from Georgian]