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TBILISI: Russian Exercises In Caucasus Prepping For Iran War?

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  • TBILISI: Russian Exercises In Caucasus Prepping For Iran War?

    RUSSIAN EXERCISES IN CAUCASUS PREPPING FOR IRAN WAR?

    Georgian Times
    Jan 22 2012
    Georgia

    Russia will be holding a series of military exercises in the North
    Caucasus, Armenia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia this fall, reportedly
    in preparation for a possible U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. The
    exercises, called Kavkaz-2012, will be held in September and won't be
    tactical/operational but strategic (i.e. won't involve large numbers
    of troops). The exercises will, however, include officers from the
    breakaway Georgian territories. The focus on surveillance, air defense
    and logistics suggests that Russia is tailoring the exercise to prepare
    for a U.S.-Israel-Iran war, says Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta
    [9]:

    As suggested by the head of the Center for Military Forecasting,
    Colonel Anatoly Tsyganok, "Preparations for the Kavkaz-2012 exercises
    seems to have begun already largely due to the increasing military
    tensions in the Persian Gulf." "In a possible war against Iran may be
    drawn some former Soviet countries of South Caucasus. How, then, to
    ensure the viability of Russian troops stationed abroad, for example,
    in Armenia? Apparently, the General Staff will plan some proactive
    measures, including learning to organize in critical logistic supply
    of troops," said the expert.

    Supporting this theory is the participation of a "pipeline battalion,"
    [10] whose task is to deliver fuel to forces, in the exercise.

    Whatever the reason for the exercise, Georgia's Ministry of Foreign
    Affairs is objecting [11]:

    Russia is deliberately building up its military forces, strengthening
    its military infrastructure and deploying offensive weapons in
    Georgia's occupied territories. In doing so, the Russian government
    is seeking to instigate a permanent state of tension in Georgia and in
    the Black Sea region as a whole.The international community should pay
    due attention to the fact that Russia's foreign policy has undergone no
    change: the Russian government continues to adopt aggressive practices,
    including the demonstration of military force and provocations.

    Russia represents a source of destabilization and negative developments
    in the international arena.

    Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is ratcheting up the bellicose rhetoric (even by
    the high standards of the Caucasus) against Armenia, reports Bloomberg
    [12]:

    Azerbaijan is buying up modern weaponry to be able to regain control
    of the breakaway Nagorno- Karabakh region quickly and with few losses
    should peace talks with neighboring Armenia fail, President Ilham
    Aliyev said.

    Defense spending will rise 1.8 percent this year to $3.47 billion,
    which Aliyev said tops Armenia's entire state budget.

    "It's not a frozen conflict, and it's not going to be one," Aliyev
    said today in remarks broadcast on state television channel AzTV.

    Would war in Iran have any effect on the Nagorno-Karabakh situation?

    The mind reels

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