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RUSSIAN EXERCISES IN CAUCASUS PREPPING FOR IRAN WAR?
Georgian Times
Jan 22 2012
Georgia
Russia will be holding a series of military exercises in the North
Caucasus, Armenia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia this fall, reportedly
in preparation for a possible U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. The
exercises, called Kavkaz-2012, will be held in September and won't be
tactical/operational but strategic (i.e. won't involve large numbers
of troops). The exercises will, however, include officers from the
breakaway Georgian territories. The focus on surveillance, air defense
and logistics suggests that Russia is tailoring the exercise to prepare
for a U.S.-Israel-Iran war, says Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta
[9]:
As suggested by the head of the Center for Military Forecasting,
Colonel Anatoly Tsyganok, "Preparations for the Kavkaz-2012 exercises
seems to have begun already largely due to the increasing military
tensions in the Persian Gulf." "In a possible war against Iran may be
drawn some former Soviet countries of South Caucasus. How, then, to
ensure the viability of Russian troops stationed abroad, for example,
in Armenia? Apparently, the General Staff will plan some proactive
measures, including learning to organize in critical logistic supply
of troops," said the expert.
Supporting this theory is the participation of a "pipeline battalion,"
[10] whose task is to deliver fuel to forces, in the exercise.
Whatever the reason for the exercise, Georgia's Ministry of Foreign
Affairs is objecting [11]:
Russia is deliberately building up its military forces, strengthening
its military infrastructure and deploying offensive weapons in
Georgia's occupied territories. In doing so, the Russian government
is seeking to instigate a permanent state of tension in Georgia and in
the Black Sea region as a whole.The international community should pay
due attention to the fact that Russia's foreign policy has undergone no
change: the Russian government continues to adopt aggressive practices,
including the demonstration of military force and provocations.
Russia represents a source of destabilization and negative developments
in the international arena.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is ratcheting up the bellicose rhetoric (even by
the high standards of the Caucasus) against Armenia, reports Bloomberg
[12]:
Azerbaijan is buying up modern weaponry to be able to regain control
of the breakaway Nagorno- Karabakh region quickly and with few losses
should peace talks with neighboring Armenia fail, President Ilham
Aliyev said.
Defense spending will rise 1.8 percent this year to $3.47 billion,
which Aliyev said tops Armenia's entire state budget.
"It's not a frozen conflict, and it's not going to be one," Aliyev
said today in remarks broadcast on state television channel AzTV.
Would war in Iran have any effect on the Nagorno-Karabakh situation?
The mind reels
Georgian Times
Jan 22 2012
Georgia
Russia will be holding a series of military exercises in the North
Caucasus, Armenia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia this fall, reportedly
in preparation for a possible U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. The
exercises, called Kavkaz-2012, will be held in September and won't be
tactical/operational but strategic (i.e. won't involve large numbers
of troops). The exercises will, however, include officers from the
breakaway Georgian territories. The focus on surveillance, air defense
and logistics suggests that Russia is tailoring the exercise to prepare
for a U.S.-Israel-Iran war, says Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta
[9]:
As suggested by the head of the Center for Military Forecasting,
Colonel Anatoly Tsyganok, "Preparations for the Kavkaz-2012 exercises
seems to have begun already largely due to the increasing military
tensions in the Persian Gulf." "In a possible war against Iran may be
drawn some former Soviet countries of South Caucasus. How, then, to
ensure the viability of Russian troops stationed abroad, for example,
in Armenia? Apparently, the General Staff will plan some proactive
measures, including learning to organize in critical logistic supply
of troops," said the expert.
Supporting this theory is the participation of a "pipeline battalion,"
[10] whose task is to deliver fuel to forces, in the exercise.
Whatever the reason for the exercise, Georgia's Ministry of Foreign
Affairs is objecting [11]:
Russia is deliberately building up its military forces, strengthening
its military infrastructure and deploying offensive weapons in
Georgia's occupied territories. In doing so, the Russian government
is seeking to instigate a permanent state of tension in Georgia and in
the Black Sea region as a whole.The international community should pay
due attention to the fact that Russia's foreign policy has undergone no
change: the Russian government continues to adopt aggressive practices,
including the demonstration of military force and provocations.
Russia represents a source of destabilization and negative developments
in the international arena.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is ratcheting up the bellicose rhetoric (even by
the high standards of the Caucasus) against Armenia, reports Bloomberg
[12]:
Azerbaijan is buying up modern weaponry to be able to regain control
of the breakaway Nagorno- Karabakh region quickly and with few losses
should peace talks with neighboring Armenia fail, President Ilham
Aliyev said.
Defense spending will rise 1.8 percent this year to $3.47 billion,
which Aliyev said tops Armenia's entire state budget.
"It's not a frozen conflict, and it's not going to be one," Aliyev
said today in remarks broadcast on state television channel AzTV.
Would war in Iran have any effect on the Nagorno-Karabakh situation?
The mind reels