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LETTER FROM GARMISCH
Today's Zaman
Jan 25 2012
Turkey
The beautiful mountains overlooking the town of Garmisch project
might and beauty at the same time. Snow is everywhere -- on the trees,
cars, mountains, anything my eyes can see.
This is what I saw from my hotel window in Garmisch-Partenkirchen
in Bavaria this morning. Mother Nature has covered up everything it
found beneath. A glance at the news from Turkey, though, one sees
little that has been covered up. The ongoing travesty around the
French bill is inflicting incurable wounds on the minds and psyches
of Turks and Armenians. Luckily though, Etyen Mahcupyan and Ahmet
Turan Alkan have expressed some very sound opinions. So, not all is
lost. Hope for normalcy is nevertheless continuing.
I am here in Garmisch-Partenkirchen for a lecture that I delivered
on Tuesday to police officers and civilian security experts from 47
countries. My lecture focused on Turkish foreign policy and the Arab
awakening. There were many Arab officers and defense officials in
the audience and we had a lively debate with officials from the region.
Many American officials like the idea of Turkey as a model for the
awakening countries. I explained to them why I think that is not the
case but that it does not mean there are not aspects of the Turkish
experience that have relevance for these transforming countries.
One year after the demonstrations in Tahrir Square, there are a
multitude of opinions flying around about the Arab awakening. There
are some who interpret the transformation as a transfer of power
from pro-Western dictators to anti-Western Islamists. There are
those who understand that the picture is much more nuanced and that
every country has its own specifics and that it is rather difficult
to judge at this stage. That said, one primary fact is that we will
see Islamists coming to power either alone or in coalitions. This is
quite normal given the fact that during decades of repression under
dictatorships the only refuge for some levels of the opposition was
the mosques, madrasas and tariqats. They are well-organized but most
importantly they are very practical and show the political flexibility
needed to succeed in such risky political terrain.
Our Egyptian colleagues shared their views on the first day of the new
parliament in Cairo. Their reflections indicate that they are on the
path of some sort of democratic order in Egypt. It is all very new
for the Islamists, but what is key is whether they will be able to
respond to the desperate needs of their societies. One of the primary
problems with Islamist movements is the lack of thinking about a viable
economic model. Once in power, they will be faced with people who
expect them to fix the dire economic problems. It is also difficult
to say that there is a lot of patience out there. The expectations
of change will have to be translated into economic success quickly.
What will really determine the future of the Middle East depends on
what the parties do after they come to power. If these Islamist parties
are successful in alleviating social ills and economic shortcomings
they will definitely be reelected. If they fail they will be voted
out. What will matter though is whether elections take place under
normal conditions and whether they leave office if they lose.
That will be the defining moment for the future of the region. For
that we will have to wait a number of years. Now is the time to help
these new political parties to succeed and integrate fully into the
political system. It is one thing to complete a revolution -- it is
no small thing -- but it is another to confront the daily realities
of an ailing economy. The Arab awakening has brought the Arabs back
to history. That is a good thing. We may see a lot of instability,
complexity and confrontation in the short run but in the long run
the awakening will have been a good thing.
Today's Zaman
Jan 25 2012
Turkey
The beautiful mountains overlooking the town of Garmisch project
might and beauty at the same time. Snow is everywhere -- on the trees,
cars, mountains, anything my eyes can see.
This is what I saw from my hotel window in Garmisch-Partenkirchen
in Bavaria this morning. Mother Nature has covered up everything it
found beneath. A glance at the news from Turkey, though, one sees
little that has been covered up. The ongoing travesty around the
French bill is inflicting incurable wounds on the minds and psyches
of Turks and Armenians. Luckily though, Etyen Mahcupyan and Ahmet
Turan Alkan have expressed some very sound opinions. So, not all is
lost. Hope for normalcy is nevertheless continuing.
I am here in Garmisch-Partenkirchen for a lecture that I delivered
on Tuesday to police officers and civilian security experts from 47
countries. My lecture focused on Turkish foreign policy and the Arab
awakening. There were many Arab officers and defense officials in
the audience and we had a lively debate with officials from the region.
Many American officials like the idea of Turkey as a model for the
awakening countries. I explained to them why I think that is not the
case but that it does not mean there are not aspects of the Turkish
experience that have relevance for these transforming countries.
One year after the demonstrations in Tahrir Square, there are a
multitude of opinions flying around about the Arab awakening. There
are some who interpret the transformation as a transfer of power
from pro-Western dictators to anti-Western Islamists. There are
those who understand that the picture is much more nuanced and that
every country has its own specifics and that it is rather difficult
to judge at this stage. That said, one primary fact is that we will
see Islamists coming to power either alone or in coalitions. This is
quite normal given the fact that during decades of repression under
dictatorships the only refuge for some levels of the opposition was
the mosques, madrasas and tariqats. They are well-organized but most
importantly they are very practical and show the political flexibility
needed to succeed in such risky political terrain.
Our Egyptian colleagues shared their views on the first day of the new
parliament in Cairo. Their reflections indicate that they are on the
path of some sort of democratic order in Egypt. It is all very new
for the Islamists, but what is key is whether they will be able to
respond to the desperate needs of their societies. One of the primary
problems with Islamist movements is the lack of thinking about a viable
economic model. Once in power, they will be faced with people who
expect them to fix the dire economic problems. It is also difficult
to say that there is a lot of patience out there. The expectations
of change will have to be translated into economic success quickly.
What will really determine the future of the Middle East depends on
what the parties do after they come to power. If these Islamist parties
are successful in alleviating social ills and economic shortcomings
they will definitely be reelected. If they fail they will be voted
out. What will matter though is whether elections take place under
normal conditions and whether they leave office if they lose.
That will be the defining moment for the future of the region. For
that we will have to wait a number of years. Now is the time to help
these new political parties to succeed and integrate fully into the
political system. It is one thing to complete a revolution -- it is
no small thing -- but it is another to confront the daily realities
of an ailing economy. The Arab awakening has brought the Arabs back
to history. That is a good thing. We may see a lot of instability,
complexity and confrontation in the short run but in the long run
the awakening will have been a good thing.