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SIDAR GLOBAL ADVISORS: FRANCE MAY NOT BE REGARDED AS AN IMPARTIAL MEDIATOR, DUE TO THE RECENT FRENCH SENATE VOTE
Milaz.info
Jan 26 2012
Azerbaijan
"In practice, there are a number of diplomatic, political and economic
sanctions Turkey could impose"
The Washington, DC-based Sidar Global Advisors (SGA) analytical group
mentions in its next special research that France may not be regarded
as an impartial mediator, due to the recent French Senate vote on
1915 events.
"Azerbaijan has condemned the vote in the French Senate and is
lobbying for France to no longer be a co-chairman in the OSCE Minsk
Group which is attempting to come up with a peaceful resolution to the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Certainly, the Armenian President has warmly
thanked French lawmakers for passing the bill", says the research,
APA's US correspondent reports.
According to the authors, in Turkey PM Erdogan has vehemently
criticized the French parliament for approving a "discriminatory and
racist bill", but Turkish policymakers are refraining from launching
retaliatory measures and are instead pressing French Senators to
appeal to the Constitutional Court.
"In practice, there are a number of diplomatic, political and
economic sanctions Turkey could impose. Diplomatic relations could be
downgraded to the lowest possible level of charge d'affaires. Turkish
airspace and waters could be closed to French military aircraft and
vessels. Educational and cultural ties would likely suffer. Officials
in Ankara could further press their claims that France had committed
genocide against the Algerian people in the 1950s and 1960s", the
research says.
In the meanwhile, because Turkey and France are both members of the
World Trade Organization and the EU's Customs Union, Sidar analysts
believe that, "it would not be possible for Ankara to organize an
official boycott of French goods and services".
"But, with public opinion in Turkey enraged and all opposition
parties backing the stance of the ruling AK Party, Turkish consumer
bodies could stage unofficial boycotts of French products. If such
a campaign was to be sustained over a prolonged period it would be
bound to have an impact on bilateral trade turnover which amounted
to about $14 billion in the last year".
The SGA believes that one likely casualty of a breakdown in
Turkish-French relations will be those French firms which are competing
to secure lucrative defense contracts in Turkey. By next summer
officials in Ankara will have probably decided on a $4 billion contract
to provide Turkey with long-range missile and air-defense systems.
"Turkey's accession process to the EU would become even more
difficult. Possible future NATO engagement in Syria would become
increasingly problematic given that Turkey would be bound to play a key
role in any military operation. The possibility of any rapprochement
between Turkey and Armenia would be effectively buried", says the
report.
In SGA's opinion, Turkish decision-makers will also now be more
concerned that the influential Armenian Diaspora in the US will
intensify their efforts to secure passage of legislation in Congress
which would make 24 April a day to commemorate officially the
"Armenian genocide".
"Given the breakdown in relations between Turkey and Israel, the
Israeli lobby can no longer be relied upon to block such legislation.
In an attempt to counter the arguments of the Armenian Diaspora,
Turkish officials would once again impress upon President Obama the
strategic significance of Turkey for the US", notes the authors,
adding, however, because of the extent of the dependence of Turkey
on US arms procurements, it is difficult to envision Ankara freezing
out Washington from future defense contracts in the event that the
US officially recognizes the "Armenian genocide".
Milaz.info
Jan 26 2012
Azerbaijan
"In practice, there are a number of diplomatic, political and economic
sanctions Turkey could impose"
The Washington, DC-based Sidar Global Advisors (SGA) analytical group
mentions in its next special research that France may not be regarded
as an impartial mediator, due to the recent French Senate vote on
1915 events.
"Azerbaijan has condemned the vote in the French Senate and is
lobbying for France to no longer be a co-chairman in the OSCE Minsk
Group which is attempting to come up with a peaceful resolution to the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Certainly, the Armenian President has warmly
thanked French lawmakers for passing the bill", says the research,
APA's US correspondent reports.
According to the authors, in Turkey PM Erdogan has vehemently
criticized the French parliament for approving a "discriminatory and
racist bill", but Turkish policymakers are refraining from launching
retaliatory measures and are instead pressing French Senators to
appeal to the Constitutional Court.
"In practice, there are a number of diplomatic, political and
economic sanctions Turkey could impose. Diplomatic relations could be
downgraded to the lowest possible level of charge d'affaires. Turkish
airspace and waters could be closed to French military aircraft and
vessels. Educational and cultural ties would likely suffer. Officials
in Ankara could further press their claims that France had committed
genocide against the Algerian people in the 1950s and 1960s", the
research says.
In the meanwhile, because Turkey and France are both members of the
World Trade Organization and the EU's Customs Union, Sidar analysts
believe that, "it would not be possible for Ankara to organize an
official boycott of French goods and services".
"But, with public opinion in Turkey enraged and all opposition
parties backing the stance of the ruling AK Party, Turkish consumer
bodies could stage unofficial boycotts of French products. If such
a campaign was to be sustained over a prolonged period it would be
bound to have an impact on bilateral trade turnover which amounted
to about $14 billion in the last year".
The SGA believes that one likely casualty of a breakdown in
Turkish-French relations will be those French firms which are competing
to secure lucrative defense contracts in Turkey. By next summer
officials in Ankara will have probably decided on a $4 billion contract
to provide Turkey with long-range missile and air-defense systems.
"Turkey's accession process to the EU would become even more
difficult. Possible future NATO engagement in Syria would become
increasingly problematic given that Turkey would be bound to play a key
role in any military operation. The possibility of any rapprochement
between Turkey and Armenia would be effectively buried", says the
report.
In SGA's opinion, Turkish decision-makers will also now be more
concerned that the influential Armenian Diaspora in the US will
intensify their efforts to secure passage of legislation in Congress
which would make 24 April a day to commemorate officially the
"Armenian genocide".
"Given the breakdown in relations between Turkey and Israel, the
Israeli lobby can no longer be relied upon to block such legislation.
In an attempt to counter the arguments of the Armenian Diaspora,
Turkish officials would once again impress upon President Obama the
strategic significance of Turkey for the US", notes the authors,
adding, however, because of the extent of the dependence of Turkey
on US arms procurements, it is difficult to envision Ankara freezing
out Washington from future defense contracts in the event that the
US officially recognizes the "Armenian genocide".