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IRAN CRISIS WORRIES ARMENIA
Deutsche Welle
January 27, 2012 Friday 2:07 PM EST
Germany
For Armenia, Iran is de facto the sole connection to the outside
world. The transport routes through other neighboring countries are
blocked. Yerevan fears isolation in case of a military conflict in
the Gulf.Armenia is watching the nuclear dispute between Iran and
the West with growing concern. Sharper sanctions against Tehran are
unsettling the government in Yerevan.
But foremost, there is fear of a military escalation of the conflict.
It would impact the planned common energy and transport projects,
which are vitally important for Armenia.
An intended rail line linking Armenia to the Persian Gulf, for example,
would be endangered. But the construction of an Iranian-Armenian
pipeline, as well as two hydropower plants on the Aras river, which
runs along their mutual border, would also be put into question. These
projects are important for Armenia, as they are intended to solve
the country's energy problems.
All routes via Iran
At the moment, Armenia's southern neighbor Iran is pretty much the
sole connection to the outside world. Relations to the remaining
bordering nations - Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey - are strained
due to serious conflicts.
Turkey and Azerbaijan are blocking Armenia because of the unresolved
conflict surrounding the self-proclaimed republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The region, which is predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians,
declared independence from Azerbaijan following the collapse of the
Soviet Union in 1991. The dispute over the mountainous enclave led to
a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 1992. Since a 1994 ceasefire,
it has been under the control of Armenian troops.
Armenia's transport routes to the north, to its military ally Russia,
run through Georgia. But this corridor is partially blocked due to the
strained relationship between Tbilisi and Moscow. The railway line
through the conflict region of Abkhazia is also interrupted. Moscow
recognized Abkhazia, as well as the breakaway province of South
Ossetia as independent countries after the Russian-Georgian war in
August 2008. Georgia, however, still considers the regions part of
its national territory.
Strong Iranian presence in Yerevan
If the conflict surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions escalates
militarily, it wouldn't only threaten Armenian-Iranian economic
projects. It could also lead to a flow of Iranian refugees to Armenia,
observers in Yerevan fear. They estimate that 200,000 to 400,000
people could seek refuge in the neighboring country, including many
of the some 300,000 ethnic Armenians living in Iran.
Gevorg Poghosyan, head of the Armenian Sociological Association,
considers these figures realistic. He said that already now, people
from Iran are relocating to Armenia.
"Business circles and intellectuals are particularly sensitive to
the situation in Iran," Poghosyan said. "There are entire families
moving to Armenia."
The Armenian authorities are not deterring Iranians from opening
businesses or buying real estate in Armenia. In Yerevan, there are
Iranian banks and restaurants, a mosque and a cultural center. Many
Iranians own houses or apartments in the center of Armenia's capital.
According to real estate experts, Iranian nationals in the meantime
hold a 10 percent share of the Armenian real estate market - and the
trend is growing.
"If the situation with Iran comes to a head, the prices for houses
and apartments will increase significantly," said Artem Pribilsky,
the director of the Armenian Real Estate Market in Yerevan
Authors: Aschot Gasasjan, Markian Ostaptschuk / sacEditor: Michael
Knigge
Deutsche Welle
January 27, 2012 Friday 2:07 PM EST
Germany
For Armenia, Iran is de facto the sole connection to the outside
world. The transport routes through other neighboring countries are
blocked. Yerevan fears isolation in case of a military conflict in
the Gulf.Armenia is watching the nuclear dispute between Iran and
the West with growing concern. Sharper sanctions against Tehran are
unsettling the government in Yerevan.
But foremost, there is fear of a military escalation of the conflict.
It would impact the planned common energy and transport projects,
which are vitally important for Armenia.
An intended rail line linking Armenia to the Persian Gulf, for example,
would be endangered. But the construction of an Iranian-Armenian
pipeline, as well as two hydropower plants on the Aras river, which
runs along their mutual border, would also be put into question. These
projects are important for Armenia, as they are intended to solve
the country's energy problems.
All routes via Iran
At the moment, Armenia's southern neighbor Iran is pretty much the
sole connection to the outside world. Relations to the remaining
bordering nations - Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey - are strained
due to serious conflicts.
Turkey and Azerbaijan are blocking Armenia because of the unresolved
conflict surrounding the self-proclaimed republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The region, which is predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians,
declared independence from Azerbaijan following the collapse of the
Soviet Union in 1991. The dispute over the mountainous enclave led to
a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 1992. Since a 1994 ceasefire,
it has been under the control of Armenian troops.
Armenia's transport routes to the north, to its military ally Russia,
run through Georgia. But this corridor is partially blocked due to the
strained relationship between Tbilisi and Moscow. The railway line
through the conflict region of Abkhazia is also interrupted. Moscow
recognized Abkhazia, as well as the breakaway province of South
Ossetia as independent countries after the Russian-Georgian war in
August 2008. Georgia, however, still considers the regions part of
its national territory.
Strong Iranian presence in Yerevan
If the conflict surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions escalates
militarily, it wouldn't only threaten Armenian-Iranian economic
projects. It could also lead to a flow of Iranian refugees to Armenia,
observers in Yerevan fear. They estimate that 200,000 to 400,000
people could seek refuge in the neighboring country, including many
of the some 300,000 ethnic Armenians living in Iran.
Gevorg Poghosyan, head of the Armenian Sociological Association,
considers these figures realistic. He said that already now, people
from Iran are relocating to Armenia.
"Business circles and intellectuals are particularly sensitive to
the situation in Iran," Poghosyan said. "There are entire families
moving to Armenia."
The Armenian authorities are not deterring Iranians from opening
businesses or buying real estate in Armenia. In Yerevan, there are
Iranian banks and restaurants, a mosque and a cultural center. Many
Iranians own houses or apartments in the center of Armenia's capital.
According to real estate experts, Iranian nationals in the meantime
hold a 10 percent share of the Armenian real estate market - and the
trend is growing.
"If the situation with Iran comes to a head, the prices for houses
and apartments will increase significantly," said Artem Pribilsky,
the director of the Armenian Real Estate Market in Yerevan
Authors: Aschot Gasasjan, Markian Ostaptschuk / sacEditor: Michael
Knigge