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TURKEY AND ITS NEIGHBOURS
Yusuf Fernandez
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=43589&cid=22&fromval=1&fr
id=22&seccatid=55&s1=1
The relations between Turkey and its neighbours have entered an
uncertain future. When Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party, the AKP,
came to power in Turkey, they promoted a "zero problems with the
neighbours" policy. However, Turkey´s tensions with these countries
appear to have effectively nullified that doctrine.
Actually, Turkey finds itself in a international precarious
situation. Firstly, its interests are clearly ignored by Europeans,
who have put the country´s bid for membership in the European Union
on indefinite hold. The crisis with Cyprus, an EU member, is getting
worse. Ankara has recently threatened military action in response
to this country´s oil exploration activities in a disputed maritime
area. In a recent meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
in New York, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was told that
the United States supported Cyprus´ right to explore in the area,
which is led by an American company. In January, France passed a law
against the so-called "armenian genocide" and Turkey´s protests were
treated with disdain.
Ankara always claimed that it had alternatives if the EU closed its
doors for Turkey. It was assuming a predominant role among the Muslim
nations and using its political and economic power to become a conflict
mediator in the region. However, this role could become impossible
if Turkey continues to alienate its neighbours. Currently, the
deterioration of relations with Syria, Iraq, Russia and Iran appears
to be more or less serious and could have far-reaching consequences.
[turkey-syria-border.jpg] When Erdogan became PM in 2004, Turkey
started to court its neighbours, especially Iran, Syria and Iraq.
Ankara reconciled with Damascus after decades of mistrust due to the
strategic alliance of Turkey with Israel. The Syrians then became the
neighbours with whom the Turks developed their closest ties. Their
armed forces conducted joint maneuvers, while their foreign and
defense ministers set up a "strategic cooperation council." Both
countries signed economic agreements worth billions of dollars.
According to the newspaper Hurriyet, Turkey had never cooperated so
closely with any other country.
However, the romance did not last. After the unrest in Syria broke out,
Turkey embraced the opposition, gave up on Assad´s regime and announced
sanctions against its old ally. Later, it started to openly promote
a regime change in Damascus and hosted Syrian political and armed
opposition groups. It allied itself with Syria´s main Arab enemies,
especially the Arab Gulf countries. This policy meant the official
"denouement of the Erdogan/Davutoglu investment in Bashar al-Assad" and
thus it was the "end of what has been billed as Turkey's transformative
diplomacy," wrote Steven A Cook in The Atlantic.
"For the first time in the life of the Turkish republic,
a Turkish government has adopted a policy of open, unprovoked
[turkey_syria_flag.jpg] confrontation with a neighboring country",
wrote Ankara-based writer Jeremy Salt. "Turkey spent years repairing
relations with neighbors under the banners of soft power, strength
in depth and "zero problems". At every level, the outcome was very
positive. Months ago, however, under the impact of the so-called
"Arab spring", that policy was abandoned virtually overnight. It has
been replaced by threats, belligerence and support for an armed group
seeking the overthrow of a government with which Turkey had friendly
relations until very recently". While Turkey once threatened to go
to war unless Syria expelled Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdish
Workers' Party (PKK), it "is now supporting a man, Riad al Assad,
whose "Free Syrian Army" is doing exactly the same across the Syrian
border", he added.
There are different reasons for the deterioration of links with
Damascus alongside with the "altruistic" goal of "helping Syrian
people". Syria´s strong axis with Iran under Assad's leadership makes
it difficult for Turkey to play a meaningful role in the region. Ankara
also sees Syria as a rival that competes for influence in Iraq. Syria´s
influence over Palestinian and Lebanese parties and organizations,
including Hamas and Hezbollah, also limits Turkey´s capacity to become
a decisive actor in Palestine and Lebanon.
Although some media has spoken of a possible Turkish military
intervention in Syria, there are some factors preventing Turkey from
taking such a step. Firstly, Turkey understands the importance of
avoiding a miscalculation over Syria. If there was chaos in Syria,
it would be Turkey that most suffers the consequences.
[russia.jpg] Secondly, Russia and China made it clear in their joint
declaration issued in Moscow after the recent visit by President Hu
Jintao that they will not allow the West to repeat the Libyan scenario
in Syria. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has said that it will use
veto if the Western countries press for a resolution on Syria at the UN
Security Council. "What I will not support is a resolution similar to
1973 on Libya, because I am convinced that a good resolution has been
turned into a piece of paper to cover a senseless military operation,"
Medvedev said.
Ankara has worked hard in last years to develop its relations with
Moscow and shares important economic and energy interests with
this country. Turkey has also increased its energy links with Iran
and both countries exchange human and technical intelligence on the
Kurdish armed organizations operating along their respective frontiers,
diplomatic sources told the Hurriyet Daily News. On the whole, Russia
and Iran provide 70% of Turkey´s energy imports.
However, Turkey´s embrace of the bid by NATO to station an anti-missile
radar on its territory has already angered both countries, which have
also become increasing suspicious of the new Turkish policy towards
Syria. In this way, Turkey is not clearly interested in further
antagonizing Russia and Iran by starting a military adventure in Syria.
Problems with Iraq[Iraq_Nouri_alMaliki.jpg]
After the serious deterioration of his relations with the Syrian
leadership, Erdogan has started another verbal war with his Iraqi
counterpart, Nouri al Maliki.
Turkey has its own agenda on Iraq, which is widely determinated
by the Kurdish issue. Ankara´s main focus is the prevention of an
independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq, the elimination of attacks
on its territory by PKK fighters across the border and the protection
of the Turkmen minority that resides mainly in Mosul and Kirkuk. To
achieve this goal, Turkey does not need too much from Baghdad. Only
its aquiescence when it invades northern Iraq to attack PKK bases.
Turkey also wants to increase its leverage over this country. But it
cannot influence the Shiite forces and parties that control the Iraqi
politics now. This is why the Turkish government worked behind the
scenes to help build the Al Iraqiya coalition, which was supported by
ex Baathists, Sunni secular nationalists and Turkmen. Turkish support
for the coalition prompted protests from the leaders of Shiite and
Kurdish organizations, which sent messages of discontent to Ankara.
When the election result was known the Turkish government was taken
by surprise. Although Al Iraqiya came first, it did not gain enough
seats to form a government. Therefore, Ankara failed to turn their
support into a political triumph. Even after the election, Ankara
kept on ignoring the Shiite groups and Kurds and instead insisted
on strengthening its ties with Al Iraqiya. Finally, the Kurds and
Shiites parties sat around a table and found common ground to set up
an executive.
[hashimi1.jpg] According to Cengiz Candar, a prominent Turkish
expert on Middle East affairs, Ankara also wanted a Sunni president,
especially Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, instead of Kurdish
Jalal Talabani. However, both Talabani and the other Iraqi Kurdish
leader, Massoud Barzani, supported the first one´s bid for presidency
and Turkish plans failed.
At a point, Erdogan seemed to realize that if Turkey wanted to expand
its influence in Iraq, then it needed to reach out to Shiites and
Kurds. This is perhaps why Erdogan became the first Turkish PM who
visited Najaf, the religious center of the Shiites in Iraq, and Irbil,
capital of the Kurdish autonomous region. However, he was unable to
overcome widespread suspicion towards Turkey´s intentions.
The relations between Turkey and Iraq reached another lower point
when Erdogan publicly supported Iraqi Hashemi, who has been accused
of having links with terrorist groups by the Iraqi authorities. On
December 19, 2011, an investigative committee within Iraq´s Interior
Ministry issued an arrest warrant for Hashemi after three of his
bodyguards made confessions of taking orders from him to carry
out the terrorist attacks. Hashemi later fled to the Kurdistan
region.[iraq_syria_flags.jpg]
On January19, Erdogan warned Maliki that Ankara would not remain silent
if he promoted a sectarian conflict in his country. Maliki´s office
responded with a statement again criticizing Turkey´s "interference"
in Iraq's affairs. "This is not acceptable in the dealings between
officials of different states and especially from heads of state,"
Maliki´s office said. "Erdogan has to be more careful in handling
the usual protocols in international relations."
In a posterior interview with al-Hurra television in January, Maliki
said: "Turkey is unfortunately playing a role which may lead to
disaster and civil war in the region."
The tension with Iraq could have serious economic consequences for
Turkey, which has already lost the Syrian market. It is noteworthy
to point out that Iraq is now Turkey´s second biggest export market
after Germany, with trade volume between the two reaching nearly
12 billion dollars in 2011. In the political field, the conflict is
likely to further diminish Ankara´s influence over its neighbour.
Yusuf Fernandez
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=43589&cid=22&fromval=1&fr
id=22&seccatid=55&s1=1
The relations between Turkey and its neighbours have entered an
uncertain future. When Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party, the AKP,
came to power in Turkey, they promoted a "zero problems with the
neighbours" policy. However, Turkey´s tensions with these countries
appear to have effectively nullified that doctrine.
Actually, Turkey finds itself in a international precarious
situation. Firstly, its interests are clearly ignored by Europeans,
who have put the country´s bid for membership in the European Union
on indefinite hold. The crisis with Cyprus, an EU member, is getting
worse. Ankara has recently threatened military action in response
to this country´s oil exploration activities in a disputed maritime
area. In a recent meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
in New York, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was told that
the United States supported Cyprus´ right to explore in the area,
which is led by an American company. In January, France passed a law
against the so-called "armenian genocide" and Turkey´s protests were
treated with disdain.
Ankara always claimed that it had alternatives if the EU closed its
doors for Turkey. It was assuming a predominant role among the Muslim
nations and using its political and economic power to become a conflict
mediator in the region. However, this role could become impossible
if Turkey continues to alienate its neighbours. Currently, the
deterioration of relations with Syria, Iraq, Russia and Iran appears
to be more or less serious and could have far-reaching consequences.
[turkey-syria-border.jpg] When Erdogan became PM in 2004, Turkey
started to court its neighbours, especially Iran, Syria and Iraq.
Ankara reconciled with Damascus after decades of mistrust due to the
strategic alliance of Turkey with Israel. The Syrians then became the
neighbours with whom the Turks developed their closest ties. Their
armed forces conducted joint maneuvers, while their foreign and
defense ministers set up a "strategic cooperation council." Both
countries signed economic agreements worth billions of dollars.
According to the newspaper Hurriyet, Turkey had never cooperated so
closely with any other country.
However, the romance did not last. After the unrest in Syria broke out,
Turkey embraced the opposition, gave up on Assad´s regime and announced
sanctions against its old ally. Later, it started to openly promote
a regime change in Damascus and hosted Syrian political and armed
opposition groups. It allied itself with Syria´s main Arab enemies,
especially the Arab Gulf countries. This policy meant the official
"denouement of the Erdogan/Davutoglu investment in Bashar al-Assad" and
thus it was the "end of what has been billed as Turkey's transformative
diplomacy," wrote Steven A Cook in The Atlantic.
"For the first time in the life of the Turkish republic,
a Turkish government has adopted a policy of open, unprovoked
[turkey_syria_flag.jpg] confrontation with a neighboring country",
wrote Ankara-based writer Jeremy Salt. "Turkey spent years repairing
relations with neighbors under the banners of soft power, strength
in depth and "zero problems". At every level, the outcome was very
positive. Months ago, however, under the impact of the so-called
"Arab spring", that policy was abandoned virtually overnight. It has
been replaced by threats, belligerence and support for an armed group
seeking the overthrow of a government with which Turkey had friendly
relations until very recently". While Turkey once threatened to go
to war unless Syria expelled Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdish
Workers' Party (PKK), it "is now supporting a man, Riad al Assad,
whose "Free Syrian Army" is doing exactly the same across the Syrian
border", he added.
There are different reasons for the deterioration of links with
Damascus alongside with the "altruistic" goal of "helping Syrian
people". Syria´s strong axis with Iran under Assad's leadership makes
it difficult for Turkey to play a meaningful role in the region. Ankara
also sees Syria as a rival that competes for influence in Iraq. Syria´s
influence over Palestinian and Lebanese parties and organizations,
including Hamas and Hezbollah, also limits Turkey´s capacity to become
a decisive actor in Palestine and Lebanon.
Although some media has spoken of a possible Turkish military
intervention in Syria, there are some factors preventing Turkey from
taking such a step. Firstly, Turkey understands the importance of
avoiding a miscalculation over Syria. If there was chaos in Syria,
it would be Turkey that most suffers the consequences.
[russia.jpg] Secondly, Russia and China made it clear in their joint
declaration issued in Moscow after the recent visit by President Hu
Jintao that they will not allow the West to repeat the Libyan scenario
in Syria. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has said that it will use
veto if the Western countries press for a resolution on Syria at the UN
Security Council. "What I will not support is a resolution similar to
1973 on Libya, because I am convinced that a good resolution has been
turned into a piece of paper to cover a senseless military operation,"
Medvedev said.
Ankara has worked hard in last years to develop its relations with
Moscow and shares important economic and energy interests with
this country. Turkey has also increased its energy links with Iran
and both countries exchange human and technical intelligence on the
Kurdish armed organizations operating along their respective frontiers,
diplomatic sources told the Hurriyet Daily News. On the whole, Russia
and Iran provide 70% of Turkey´s energy imports.
However, Turkey´s embrace of the bid by NATO to station an anti-missile
radar on its territory has already angered both countries, which have
also become increasing suspicious of the new Turkish policy towards
Syria. In this way, Turkey is not clearly interested in further
antagonizing Russia and Iran by starting a military adventure in Syria.
Problems with Iraq[Iraq_Nouri_alMaliki.jpg]
After the serious deterioration of his relations with the Syrian
leadership, Erdogan has started another verbal war with his Iraqi
counterpart, Nouri al Maliki.
Turkey has its own agenda on Iraq, which is widely determinated
by the Kurdish issue. Ankara´s main focus is the prevention of an
independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq, the elimination of attacks
on its territory by PKK fighters across the border and the protection
of the Turkmen minority that resides mainly in Mosul and Kirkuk. To
achieve this goal, Turkey does not need too much from Baghdad. Only
its aquiescence when it invades northern Iraq to attack PKK bases.
Turkey also wants to increase its leverage over this country. But it
cannot influence the Shiite forces and parties that control the Iraqi
politics now. This is why the Turkish government worked behind the
scenes to help build the Al Iraqiya coalition, which was supported by
ex Baathists, Sunni secular nationalists and Turkmen. Turkish support
for the coalition prompted protests from the leaders of Shiite and
Kurdish organizations, which sent messages of discontent to Ankara.
When the election result was known the Turkish government was taken
by surprise. Although Al Iraqiya came first, it did not gain enough
seats to form a government. Therefore, Ankara failed to turn their
support into a political triumph. Even after the election, Ankara
kept on ignoring the Shiite groups and Kurds and instead insisted
on strengthening its ties with Al Iraqiya. Finally, the Kurds and
Shiites parties sat around a table and found common ground to set up
an executive.
[hashimi1.jpg] According to Cengiz Candar, a prominent Turkish
expert on Middle East affairs, Ankara also wanted a Sunni president,
especially Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, instead of Kurdish
Jalal Talabani. However, both Talabani and the other Iraqi Kurdish
leader, Massoud Barzani, supported the first one´s bid for presidency
and Turkish plans failed.
At a point, Erdogan seemed to realize that if Turkey wanted to expand
its influence in Iraq, then it needed to reach out to Shiites and
Kurds. This is perhaps why Erdogan became the first Turkish PM who
visited Najaf, the religious center of the Shiites in Iraq, and Irbil,
capital of the Kurdish autonomous region. However, he was unable to
overcome widespread suspicion towards Turkey´s intentions.
The relations between Turkey and Iraq reached another lower point
when Erdogan publicly supported Iraqi Hashemi, who has been accused
of having links with terrorist groups by the Iraqi authorities. On
December 19, 2011, an investigative committee within Iraq´s Interior
Ministry issued an arrest warrant for Hashemi after three of his
bodyguards made confessions of taking orders from him to carry
out the terrorist attacks. Hashemi later fled to the Kurdistan
region.[iraq_syria_flags.jpg]
On January19, Erdogan warned Maliki that Ankara would not remain silent
if he promoted a sectarian conflict in his country. Maliki´s office
responded with a statement again criticizing Turkey´s "interference"
in Iraq's affairs. "This is not acceptable in the dealings between
officials of different states and especially from heads of state,"
Maliki´s office said. "Erdogan has to be more careful in handling
the usual protocols in international relations."
In a posterior interview with al-Hurra television in January, Maliki
said: "Turkey is unfortunately playing a role which may lead to
disaster and civil war in the region."
The tension with Iraq could have serious economic consequences for
Turkey, which has already lost the Syrian market. It is noteworthy
to point out that Iraq is now Turkey´s second biggest export market
after Germany, with trade volume between the two reaching nearly
12 billion dollars in 2011. In the political field, the conflict is
likely to further diminish Ankara´s influence over its neighbour.