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WITH PROPER MODELING OF SITUATION, NOTHING CAN STOP AZERBAIJAN TO FREE ITS LANDS
News.Az
Tuesday, 03 July 2012 14:42
Interview with Vali Alibeyov, vice president of the Association of
Development of civil public in Azerbaijan.
Q: How to comment on Uzbekistan's decision to suspend its participation
in the CSTO?
A: It is difficult to comment on and assess steps of countries such
as Uzbekistan, where by virtue of the established political tradition,
many decisions are not taking into account vital geopolitical realities
but the will of one man who could dislike something that can wound his
pride. However, it is impossible to treat and analyze the versions of
what happened to try to explain them. Analysts have so far made two
main versions - the first is the fact that Uzbekistan has received
security guarantees from the U.S. and prepares to "shelter" American
military forces after they leave Afghanistan.
The second version is that Uzbekistan's demarche is associated with
the decision of Russia to establish military bases in Kyrgyzstan, with
which Uzbekistan has many unresolved border and ethnic problems. In
my opinion, the second version is more close to truth - Russia openly
strengthens Kyrgyzstan, with which Uzbekistan needs to solve problems,
and the same step can also be taken as a direct challenge to the very
Karimov, a blow to his reputation. As for obtaining guarantees from
the US, I think that Uzbekistan, as many other republics, are well
aware of the fact that the US is far, Russia is close.
How will this decision affect the CSTO itself, will this make it
stronger or weaker?
Uzbekistan yet didn't play any active role in the Collective Security
Treaty Organization, exactly like other countries. And I agree with
the opinion of CSTO officials which declared that the CSTO will not
weaken without Uzbekistan - how can weaken an amorphous and stillborn
structure?
Q: What do you think about the opinion of some Armenian experts that
this decision only reinforces the CSTO because Tashkent's support
to position of Baku on Karabakh allegedly prevented the adoption of
coordinated decisions?
A: What decisions did this organization make and how did Tashkent
prevent them? Of course, this type of unprofessional comments is
designed for most poorly educated contingent.
Q: Azerbaijan has other allies in the CSTO, except Uzbekistan. This
is, in particular, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Can we assume that these
countries will prevent a possible anti-Azerbaijani decision of
the CSTO?
A: At present, I would not consider these countries our allies,
because in reality they have themselves a lot of problems with Russia,
the main ideologist of the CSTO, and they will not "ask for trouble"
because of Azerbaijan in the organization , which is dominated by the
principle of "chief is always right". On the other hand, the CSTO,
as I said earlier, is a stillborn structure. The CSTO as a tool will
do all that is in the interests of Russia, no matter whether other
members of the organization agree with its decisions or not.
Q: Armenians seem to realize that the war over Karabakh cannot be
considered a legal basis for intervention of CSTO in the conflict
on the side of Armenia. Perhaps that is why they are trying to make
noise to the whole world that the Azerbaijani army allegedly fires not
only at positions of the Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, but also
at the territory of Armenia. What in this case is the probability of
intervention of CSTO in the Karabakh conflict, if Azerbaijan starts
a war for the liberation of Karabakh?
A: This will depend on many factors, primarily on the geopolitical
situation not only in our region. Yes, Russia can and likely will
help Armenia in case of initiation of an anti-terrorist operation
by Azerbaijan, but no matter how strong Russia is, at a certain
geopolitical situation, it simply may not be time for Armenia.
Therefore, our strategists and analysts need to work hard to develop
multiple models of the situation, and at a convenient point to report
them to the government. And then, I think nothing and nobody can stop
us to liberate our land.
News.Az
Tuesday, 03 July 2012 14:42
Interview with Vali Alibeyov, vice president of the Association of
Development of civil public in Azerbaijan.
Q: How to comment on Uzbekistan's decision to suspend its participation
in the CSTO?
A: It is difficult to comment on and assess steps of countries such
as Uzbekistan, where by virtue of the established political tradition,
many decisions are not taking into account vital geopolitical realities
but the will of one man who could dislike something that can wound his
pride. However, it is impossible to treat and analyze the versions of
what happened to try to explain them. Analysts have so far made two
main versions - the first is the fact that Uzbekistan has received
security guarantees from the U.S. and prepares to "shelter" American
military forces after they leave Afghanistan.
The second version is that Uzbekistan's demarche is associated with
the decision of Russia to establish military bases in Kyrgyzstan, with
which Uzbekistan has many unresolved border and ethnic problems. In
my opinion, the second version is more close to truth - Russia openly
strengthens Kyrgyzstan, with which Uzbekistan needs to solve problems,
and the same step can also be taken as a direct challenge to the very
Karimov, a blow to his reputation. As for obtaining guarantees from
the US, I think that Uzbekistan, as many other republics, are well
aware of the fact that the US is far, Russia is close.
How will this decision affect the CSTO itself, will this make it
stronger or weaker?
Uzbekistan yet didn't play any active role in the Collective Security
Treaty Organization, exactly like other countries. And I agree with
the opinion of CSTO officials which declared that the CSTO will not
weaken without Uzbekistan - how can weaken an amorphous and stillborn
structure?
Q: What do you think about the opinion of some Armenian experts that
this decision only reinforces the CSTO because Tashkent's support
to position of Baku on Karabakh allegedly prevented the adoption of
coordinated decisions?
A: What decisions did this organization make and how did Tashkent
prevent them? Of course, this type of unprofessional comments is
designed for most poorly educated contingent.
Q: Azerbaijan has other allies in the CSTO, except Uzbekistan. This
is, in particular, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Can we assume that these
countries will prevent a possible anti-Azerbaijani decision of
the CSTO?
A: At present, I would not consider these countries our allies,
because in reality they have themselves a lot of problems with Russia,
the main ideologist of the CSTO, and they will not "ask for trouble"
because of Azerbaijan in the organization , which is dominated by the
principle of "chief is always right". On the other hand, the CSTO,
as I said earlier, is a stillborn structure. The CSTO as a tool will
do all that is in the interests of Russia, no matter whether other
members of the organization agree with its decisions or not.
Q: Armenians seem to realize that the war over Karabakh cannot be
considered a legal basis for intervention of CSTO in the conflict
on the side of Armenia. Perhaps that is why they are trying to make
noise to the whole world that the Azerbaijani army allegedly fires not
only at positions of the Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, but also
at the territory of Armenia. What in this case is the probability of
intervention of CSTO in the Karabakh conflict, if Azerbaijan starts
a war for the liberation of Karabakh?
A: This will depend on many factors, primarily on the geopolitical
situation not only in our region. Yes, Russia can and likely will
help Armenia in case of initiation of an anti-terrorist operation
by Azerbaijan, but no matter how strong Russia is, at a certain
geopolitical situation, it simply may not be time for Armenia.
Therefore, our strategists and analysts need to work hard to develop
multiple models of the situation, and at a convenient point to report
them to the government. And then, I think nothing and nobody can stop
us to liberate our land.