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Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
July 5 2012
Tehran worries Moscow and Yerevan
Video conference Moscow - Yerevan "New Middle East realities.
Challenges for Moscow and Yerevan"
According to Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher of the Institute of
Oriental Studies, "Now, speaking quite frankly, Iran cannot make some
serious compromises in its position concerning the nuclear issue,
because there is a serious struggle within the Iranian elite..
Therefore, I think this struggle will continue till the elections, and
only after the presidential elections in Iran may some stabilization
occur (I am not talking about a complete stabilization). It will let
the new authorities of the country, I mean, the executive ones, make
more definite steps towards the Group of Six.
This point is very important. Especially, you know that since the
formal entry of the embargo into force on July 1, 2012, the Iranians
have taken some very serious steps. Quite powerful air-missile
exercises began on July 2; these exercises were codenamed "Great
Prophet 7." They will last three days, that is, till tomorrow. As far
as we know from the media, all of the Iranian missile systems will be
engaged in these exercises. The most interesting fact is that the
Iranians have supposedly prepared the layouts of the U.S. military
bases in their territory; the missiles will actually be launched
there. It is a measure of force.
Moreover, as far as I know, the Iranian Majlis or, more precisely, the
Committee on Security and International Affairs, has prepared a bill
on closing the Hormuz Strait, if the situation with the oil embargo
announced by the EU threatens the interests of Iran. The United States
and Britain announced that this would mean a declaration of war almost
at the same time."
Answering the question as to whether the internal situation in Iran
could provoke an increase of internal discontent in the country,
Vladimir Sazhin said yes: "Although the sanctions formally took effect
on July 1 but ... Why did they need July 1, although the EU agreed on
this on January 23? The reason is that many European companies have
contracts with Iran, and the last contract ended just on July 1, and
none of these Western companies has signed new contracts with Iran.
Therefore, there was such a date. Of course, by my count, Iran could
lose about $20 billion per year due to the fact that the oil from Iran
will not be supplied. If we add to this a very large reduction in the
purchases of crude oil by the main consumers of Iranian oil in
Southeast Asia (I am referring to South Korea, China, Japan, etc.),
this figure will increase even more. Of course, it is not a disaster
for the Iranian economy, which is generally a developed one, but it's
a big failure. I have repeatedly said a dollar was worth 11,000
Iranian reals in November, and in April it was worth 22,000, that is,
the fall was twofold. Inflation, according to the official data, is
currently about 22%, although, according to unofficial estimates, even
Iranian economists say that it is up to 40%, and Western sources say
it is even up to 60%. Prices are dramatically rising. Bread prices,
for example, rose by 70% in a few weeks. This situation, of course,
causes discontent in the country, not only among its population, but
even among the ruling elites.
Since last December, when the talk about the oil embargo started, the
deputies of the Majlis accused President Ahmadinejad of bringing the
country to this situation; this was even before the oil embargo. So,
of course, the reforms of Ahmadinejad that began some time ago, these
economic reforms have created a negative situation. Although they were
generally positive for the future of Iran, but it was also a great
shock to the very foundations of the Iranian economy, which have
existed for many years. But these sanctions (we know that there are
sanctions of the UN Security Council which are four resolutions, there
are also sanctions of the United States, and there are the EU
sanctions; I'm talking about the latest sanctions, I mean the banking
ones), the prohibition of the insurance of tankers carrying Iranian
oil, and the oil embargo - all of this was quite shocking for the
Iranian economy. "
According to Alexander Iskandaryan, the director of the Caucasus
Institute, "the situation around Iran has not been very safe for Iran
for a long time. From Afghanistan through Pakistan to Gulf countries
and the Saudis, with whom they have never been successful partners,
and so on - Iran has already got used to existing amongst these
countries, and it has certain mechanisms of both foreign policy and
economy (we are talking about a very particular type of economy close
to autarchy) which Iran uses in order to learn somehow how to exist in
this mode.
The situation with the threat of a serious strike against Iran is not
unambiguous. It seems to me that, at least in a short run, that is,
before the election and the change of president of the United States,
and probably before the elections in Iran, it seems very unlikely that
Iran will be attacked. If it is just a missile attack, the United
States will not manage to solve any serious problems by it. And the
problems that may arise, I think, are too serious for such a decision
by the Americans. I mean Americans, not Israelis, it's still not the
same thing. It is extremely difficult for me to imagine the apocalypse
of a land invasion of Iran. It is also quite difficult to imagine that
the situation around Iran will aggravate before a resolution of the
Syrian issue".
Answering the question of the reaction of people in Armenia to the
events in the neighboring countries, Alexander Iskandaryan said that
"they are very worried about it. It is not very typical for our
country. Iran supplies about 30% of our exports, including transit
trade. In fact, Iran is informally one of the guarantors of the
situation in the South Caucasus. Iran is one of our two neighbors with
which the border is open. And Iran is a country with which Armenia has
excellent economic relations, taking into account the specifics of the
Iranian model with their closed market, and very good political
relations. "
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/28604.html
From: Baghdasarian
July 5 2012
Tehran worries Moscow and Yerevan
Video conference Moscow - Yerevan "New Middle East realities.
Challenges for Moscow and Yerevan"
According to Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher of the Institute of
Oriental Studies, "Now, speaking quite frankly, Iran cannot make some
serious compromises in its position concerning the nuclear issue,
because there is a serious struggle within the Iranian elite..
Therefore, I think this struggle will continue till the elections, and
only after the presidential elections in Iran may some stabilization
occur (I am not talking about a complete stabilization). It will let
the new authorities of the country, I mean, the executive ones, make
more definite steps towards the Group of Six.
This point is very important. Especially, you know that since the
formal entry of the embargo into force on July 1, 2012, the Iranians
have taken some very serious steps. Quite powerful air-missile
exercises began on July 2; these exercises were codenamed "Great
Prophet 7." They will last three days, that is, till tomorrow. As far
as we know from the media, all of the Iranian missile systems will be
engaged in these exercises. The most interesting fact is that the
Iranians have supposedly prepared the layouts of the U.S. military
bases in their territory; the missiles will actually be launched
there. It is a measure of force.
Moreover, as far as I know, the Iranian Majlis or, more precisely, the
Committee on Security and International Affairs, has prepared a bill
on closing the Hormuz Strait, if the situation with the oil embargo
announced by the EU threatens the interests of Iran. The United States
and Britain announced that this would mean a declaration of war almost
at the same time."
Answering the question as to whether the internal situation in Iran
could provoke an increase of internal discontent in the country,
Vladimir Sazhin said yes: "Although the sanctions formally took effect
on July 1 but ... Why did they need July 1, although the EU agreed on
this on January 23? The reason is that many European companies have
contracts with Iran, and the last contract ended just on July 1, and
none of these Western companies has signed new contracts with Iran.
Therefore, there was such a date. Of course, by my count, Iran could
lose about $20 billion per year due to the fact that the oil from Iran
will not be supplied. If we add to this a very large reduction in the
purchases of crude oil by the main consumers of Iranian oil in
Southeast Asia (I am referring to South Korea, China, Japan, etc.),
this figure will increase even more. Of course, it is not a disaster
for the Iranian economy, which is generally a developed one, but it's
a big failure. I have repeatedly said a dollar was worth 11,000
Iranian reals in November, and in April it was worth 22,000, that is,
the fall was twofold. Inflation, according to the official data, is
currently about 22%, although, according to unofficial estimates, even
Iranian economists say that it is up to 40%, and Western sources say
it is even up to 60%. Prices are dramatically rising. Bread prices,
for example, rose by 70% in a few weeks. This situation, of course,
causes discontent in the country, not only among its population, but
even among the ruling elites.
Since last December, when the talk about the oil embargo started, the
deputies of the Majlis accused President Ahmadinejad of bringing the
country to this situation; this was even before the oil embargo. So,
of course, the reforms of Ahmadinejad that began some time ago, these
economic reforms have created a negative situation. Although they were
generally positive for the future of Iran, but it was also a great
shock to the very foundations of the Iranian economy, which have
existed for many years. But these sanctions (we know that there are
sanctions of the UN Security Council which are four resolutions, there
are also sanctions of the United States, and there are the EU
sanctions; I'm talking about the latest sanctions, I mean the banking
ones), the prohibition of the insurance of tankers carrying Iranian
oil, and the oil embargo - all of this was quite shocking for the
Iranian economy. "
According to Alexander Iskandaryan, the director of the Caucasus
Institute, "the situation around Iran has not been very safe for Iran
for a long time. From Afghanistan through Pakistan to Gulf countries
and the Saudis, with whom they have never been successful partners,
and so on - Iran has already got used to existing amongst these
countries, and it has certain mechanisms of both foreign policy and
economy (we are talking about a very particular type of economy close
to autarchy) which Iran uses in order to learn somehow how to exist in
this mode.
The situation with the threat of a serious strike against Iran is not
unambiguous. It seems to me that, at least in a short run, that is,
before the election and the change of president of the United States,
and probably before the elections in Iran, it seems very unlikely that
Iran will be attacked. If it is just a missile attack, the United
States will not manage to solve any serious problems by it. And the
problems that may arise, I think, are too serious for such a decision
by the Americans. I mean Americans, not Israelis, it's still not the
same thing. It is extremely difficult for me to imagine the apocalypse
of a land invasion of Iran. It is also quite difficult to imagine that
the situation around Iran will aggravate before a resolution of the
Syrian issue".
Answering the question of the reaction of people in Armenia to the
events in the neighboring countries, Alexander Iskandaryan said that
"they are very worried about it. It is not very typical for our
country. Iran supplies about 30% of our exports, including transit
trade. In fact, Iran is informally one of the guarantors of the
situation in the South Caucasus. Iran is one of our two neighbors with
which the border is open. And Iran is a country with which Armenia has
excellent economic relations, taking into account the specifics of the
Iranian model with their closed market, and very good political
relations. "
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/28604.html
From: Baghdasarian