Tweet
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
July 4 2012
Syrian and Egyptian prospects
Yesterday Russian and Armenian political scientists expressed their
views on new Middle East realities during the video bridge
Moscow-Yerevan `Challenges for Moscow and Yerevan.'
Vladimir Sazhin, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of
Sciences, believes that `the situation in Egypt is unstable and the
prospects are unclear. I would like to say that although the military
retreated a little, it does not mean that they have given up their
positions completely and I do not think they will do it until the very
last moment. Egypt forms something like a double power. One needs to
take into account external factors, because Egypt is not isolated.
There is a strong influence of the US and Israel. We know that during
the time of the revolutionary troubles Egypt lost a lot of money, it
has a big currency deficit and an economic crisis. I do not think that
it can restore its pre-revolutionary levels without external aid. From
where can it expect aid? Of course, Saudi Arabia can help. However,
the main help traditionally comes from the US. The role of the US is
not only in economic help, but also in the supervision of internal
policy. I would not mention Israel.
The statements made by the Iranian Information Agency are a
provocation. As far as I know, the president of Egypt even wants to
sue them. Why was it done? Iranian-Egyptian relations have been
discussed for a long time now, even under Mubarak. There were some
developments and retreats. It is very difficult to talk about close
relations between Iran and Egypt. I think it will not happen in the
near future. They can restore economic or diplomatic relations,
although this requires time, but there can be no close alliance like
between Iran and Syria.'
According to Ruben Safrastyan, Institute of Oriental Studies, Armenian
Academy of Sciences, `Egypt is at the start of a new road, but the
main landmarks of this road are still unclear. We can state that the
new president is trying to find a consensus with the highest military
officials. I agree with Professor Sazhin that an external factor
should be taken into account. External factor means the US that
provides big military support for this country - more than a billion
dollars a year- and there is information that President Morsi would
not interfere in a military budget that guarantees the free flow of
American aid to the military leadership, sometimes staying in their
pockets. It means that the US can influence the political situation in
Egypt. As a specialist on Turkey, I can stay that Egypt could try to
follow the Turkish way. We see that in Turkey the power is gradually
passing from the military to the civilian government. We can assume
that Egypt would follow the same road.'
Alexander Iskandaryan, political scientist, Director of the Institute
of the Caucasus, thinks that `the introduction of elements of
democratic choice inevitably involved a certain element of Islamism
and political change, we see it already in Egypt. I am particularly
interested in how relations between the Muslim Brotherhood and the
Salafis will develop. Speaking from Yerevan, I can say that Egypt
seems far away from us, beyond Syria and Israel. The situation there
is unstable, but Syria can only envy it. Syria has everything ahead.
The situation there is very difficult and I am afraid that the
possibility of consensus between the different sides of the Syrian
conflict is almost impossible. Syria is difficult to compare even with
Libya. Libya is also broken and as a result of democratization it just
fell into three pieces. In Syria this process doesn't follow a
geographic line, with the exception of the Kurdish part, but the
streets of every village and town. And when the current riots that are
already on the verge of the civil war become more serious, it is
difficult to say what will happen to the Alawis, who now compose about
15% of the population, what will happen to the Christians, or whether
the authorities will be able to control the situation in some way. I
do not know when it will happen - this July or next year - but it is a
fact that there is a big threat. When it happens, God forbid, it will
be a true humanitarian catastrophe, and not in the metaphorical but
the literal sense. This is very important for Armenia. Already
thousands of ethnic Armenians, citizens of Syria, have arrived in
Armenia asking for citizenship. As I read in the press, last year
there were about 3000 of them and in this half year already about
2000. These are only those who asked for citizenship, while some just
come or ask for a residence permit. The Syrian factor already plays a
role in the housing market. People coming from Syria have started
buying apartments. The Armenian community there consists of about
50-60 thousand, which is quite big for a country like ours.
Secondly, Syria is a key country for its region. What happens in Syria
is connected to the role of Turkey and Iran in the region. Northern
Iran, the Kurds and everything connected to them. The reformatting of
this big region - from Tunisia to Iran and the smaller region close to
our borders - has a big meaning for our country and Russia. Armenia
cannot influence anything, but there is an acute necessity to adapt to
the new reality that is changing very rapidly and we can see the
concerns, if not of the wider public, but at least among the
professional community.'
Alexander Ignatenko, Institute of Politics and Religion, Member of the
presidential council for interaction with religious organizations,
noted that `the events in Syria, the conflict, the war between the two
regional powers - Saudi Arabia and Iran. The events in Syria are
connected to this contradiction. It should be mentioned also that the
conflict was initiated by Saudi Arabia. I do not mention Shia, Sunni,
Alawi, everybody understands it. Saudi Arabia and Iran cannot resolve
it by themselves, therefore they attract other forces - Saudi Arabia
to a greater degree, Iran to a lesser degree, because it is a big
military force unlike Saudi Arabia The ideal option for them will be
if at this site Russia, or better Russia and China on one side, will
face up to the US and NATO. The events in Egypt were also greatly
influenced by the Arabic monarchies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. It is an
established fact that Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi
Arabia supported andsupports the Salafis. The fact that the Muslim
Brotherhood and the Salafis took so many places in the parliament is a
clear result of external support. By the way, Saudi Arabia is ready to
provide support to Egypt, much more than the US, but of course on
their conditions. They are observing the situation in Egypt and
influencing it, but aren't giving money so far.' .
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/28567.html
From: A. Papazian
July 4 2012
Syrian and Egyptian prospects
Yesterday Russian and Armenian political scientists expressed their
views on new Middle East realities during the video bridge
Moscow-Yerevan `Challenges for Moscow and Yerevan.'
Vladimir Sazhin, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of
Sciences, believes that `the situation in Egypt is unstable and the
prospects are unclear. I would like to say that although the military
retreated a little, it does not mean that they have given up their
positions completely and I do not think they will do it until the very
last moment. Egypt forms something like a double power. One needs to
take into account external factors, because Egypt is not isolated.
There is a strong influence of the US and Israel. We know that during
the time of the revolutionary troubles Egypt lost a lot of money, it
has a big currency deficit and an economic crisis. I do not think that
it can restore its pre-revolutionary levels without external aid. From
where can it expect aid? Of course, Saudi Arabia can help. However,
the main help traditionally comes from the US. The role of the US is
not only in economic help, but also in the supervision of internal
policy. I would not mention Israel.
The statements made by the Iranian Information Agency are a
provocation. As far as I know, the president of Egypt even wants to
sue them. Why was it done? Iranian-Egyptian relations have been
discussed for a long time now, even under Mubarak. There were some
developments and retreats. It is very difficult to talk about close
relations between Iran and Egypt. I think it will not happen in the
near future. They can restore economic or diplomatic relations,
although this requires time, but there can be no close alliance like
between Iran and Syria.'
According to Ruben Safrastyan, Institute of Oriental Studies, Armenian
Academy of Sciences, `Egypt is at the start of a new road, but the
main landmarks of this road are still unclear. We can state that the
new president is trying to find a consensus with the highest military
officials. I agree with Professor Sazhin that an external factor
should be taken into account. External factor means the US that
provides big military support for this country - more than a billion
dollars a year- and there is information that President Morsi would
not interfere in a military budget that guarantees the free flow of
American aid to the military leadership, sometimes staying in their
pockets. It means that the US can influence the political situation in
Egypt. As a specialist on Turkey, I can stay that Egypt could try to
follow the Turkish way. We see that in Turkey the power is gradually
passing from the military to the civilian government. We can assume
that Egypt would follow the same road.'
Alexander Iskandaryan, political scientist, Director of the Institute
of the Caucasus, thinks that `the introduction of elements of
democratic choice inevitably involved a certain element of Islamism
and political change, we see it already in Egypt. I am particularly
interested in how relations between the Muslim Brotherhood and the
Salafis will develop. Speaking from Yerevan, I can say that Egypt
seems far away from us, beyond Syria and Israel. The situation there
is unstable, but Syria can only envy it. Syria has everything ahead.
The situation there is very difficult and I am afraid that the
possibility of consensus between the different sides of the Syrian
conflict is almost impossible. Syria is difficult to compare even with
Libya. Libya is also broken and as a result of democratization it just
fell into three pieces. In Syria this process doesn't follow a
geographic line, with the exception of the Kurdish part, but the
streets of every village and town. And when the current riots that are
already on the verge of the civil war become more serious, it is
difficult to say what will happen to the Alawis, who now compose about
15% of the population, what will happen to the Christians, or whether
the authorities will be able to control the situation in some way. I
do not know when it will happen - this July or next year - but it is a
fact that there is a big threat. When it happens, God forbid, it will
be a true humanitarian catastrophe, and not in the metaphorical but
the literal sense. This is very important for Armenia. Already
thousands of ethnic Armenians, citizens of Syria, have arrived in
Armenia asking for citizenship. As I read in the press, last year
there were about 3000 of them and in this half year already about
2000. These are only those who asked for citizenship, while some just
come or ask for a residence permit. The Syrian factor already plays a
role in the housing market. People coming from Syria have started
buying apartments. The Armenian community there consists of about
50-60 thousand, which is quite big for a country like ours.
Secondly, Syria is a key country for its region. What happens in Syria
is connected to the role of Turkey and Iran in the region. Northern
Iran, the Kurds and everything connected to them. The reformatting of
this big region - from Tunisia to Iran and the smaller region close to
our borders - has a big meaning for our country and Russia. Armenia
cannot influence anything, but there is an acute necessity to adapt to
the new reality that is changing very rapidly and we can see the
concerns, if not of the wider public, but at least among the
professional community.'
Alexander Ignatenko, Institute of Politics and Religion, Member of the
presidential council for interaction with religious organizations,
noted that `the events in Syria, the conflict, the war between the two
regional powers - Saudi Arabia and Iran. The events in Syria are
connected to this contradiction. It should be mentioned also that the
conflict was initiated by Saudi Arabia. I do not mention Shia, Sunni,
Alawi, everybody understands it. Saudi Arabia and Iran cannot resolve
it by themselves, therefore they attract other forces - Saudi Arabia
to a greater degree, Iran to a lesser degree, because it is a big
military force unlike Saudi Arabia The ideal option for them will be
if at this site Russia, or better Russia and China on one side, will
face up to the US and NATO. The events in Egypt were also greatly
influenced by the Arabic monarchies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. It is an
established fact that Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi
Arabia supported andsupports the Salafis. The fact that the Muslim
Brotherhood and the Salafis took so many places in the parliament is a
clear result of external support. By the way, Saudi Arabia is ready to
provide support to Egypt, much more than the US, but of course on
their conditions. They are observing the situation in Egypt and
influencing it, but aren't giving money so far.' .
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/28567.html
From: A. Papazian