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Former Balance of Forces Does Not Exist
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26774.html
Published: 16:11:14 - 05/07/2012
The Karabakh issue is an international one by its geopolitical importance,
interested sides and states, the practice of considerations and
discussions, influence on political processes. Recently the Karabakh issue
has become a subject of intensive discussions on the international arena
which can be explained by the diminishing attention of the West to the
South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea, as well as Western Europe. At the same
time, the Karabakh issue, as well as analogical issues in the South
Caucasus and other regions of Western Europe are considered in terms of
their dependence on large-scale geopolitical and political tasks. In this
regard, viewing the Karabakh issue as an international one requires
observance of a certain balance of notions and categories, on a certain
level of urgency and importance.
The main criterion of consideration of the Karabakh issue, as well as other
analogical problems, is security (regional and interregional). So far the
Karabakh issue has been viewed in terms of predictable security. The
principles of observance of territorial integrity, democracy, tolerance and
others were considered in the framework of security.
In the South Caucasus a hierarchy of conditions and factors of security is
gradually forming which aims at successful production and transportation of
energy resources. For the United States, as well as the United Kingdom that
declare different goals and objectives in the South Caucasus, actual
politics in the South Caucasus is subject to the interests of energy and
communication projects which are significantly depoliticized, as well as
military transit the implementation of which is the main goal, while the
priorities are security and stability in the region, with consideration of
tasks relating to Russia, Turkey and Iran.
Along with these basic conditions specific goals of `net' geopolitics and
economy are matched, which, depending on the situation, are grouped as
primary and secondary. Combination of political and economic interests
misleads not only the society but also the political class.
Recently France has had a more important role in working out plans and
schemes of settlement of the Karabakh issue along with its growing
influence on the political processes in the Near East. The United Kingdom
is trying out a systemic policy of participation and influence on the
region, implementing projects aimed at the solution of problems relating to
the global energy and communication goals but its role in the region is
consistently unfolded.
The European Union is trying to highlight its influence and new role in the
region, the growing role of France is felt. It is thus necessary to study
the French policy in the region more substantially as a whole Caucasian
project, considering France's intentions to mark its presence in gas
production and transportation in Azerbaijan. At the same time, the policy
of France on containment of Turkish ambitions remains the same, independent
from the policy of the new president.
The United States is lost, its policy looks less confident, and it is
trying to shed responsibility for one problem or another in the South
Caucasus. These conditions and factors explain the political situation in
the South Caucasus as an action which requires conceptual settings to build
up situation analyses and options. One way or another, the old
understanding and scenarios have been wasted, the former balance of forces
and intentions ended, and there are no new arrangements.
Nevertheless, the situation is uncertain and changeable and cannot have a
serious long-term perspective. There is strong controversy among the main
foreign stakeholders, as well as internal tension in the region when the
situation gets out of control. In this regard, the positions of sides are
not predictable and agreed.
Military actions may resume, leading to a resolution, simplifying the
general scheme of correlation of forces. If the United States is convinced
that it will not have to intervene, and if Russia does not fear that, the
road to war will be open. However, Turkey may, nevertheless, play a crucial
role in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan if it is caught in a
hopeless blockade and isolation and use Azerbaijan's ambitions as a
convenient opportunity to launch a war and prove that Ankara writes
scenarios for the given military and political actions. The reluctance to
see this perspective is understood but confirmation of Armenia's role in
this scenario requires its development.
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26774.html
Published: 16:11:14 - 05/07/2012
The Karabakh issue is an international one by its geopolitical importance,
interested sides and states, the practice of considerations and
discussions, influence on political processes. Recently the Karabakh issue
has become a subject of intensive discussions on the international arena
which can be explained by the diminishing attention of the West to the
South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea, as well as Western Europe. At the same
time, the Karabakh issue, as well as analogical issues in the South
Caucasus and other regions of Western Europe are considered in terms of
their dependence on large-scale geopolitical and political tasks. In this
regard, viewing the Karabakh issue as an international one requires
observance of a certain balance of notions and categories, on a certain
level of urgency and importance.
The main criterion of consideration of the Karabakh issue, as well as other
analogical problems, is security (regional and interregional). So far the
Karabakh issue has been viewed in terms of predictable security. The
principles of observance of territorial integrity, democracy, tolerance and
others were considered in the framework of security.
In the South Caucasus a hierarchy of conditions and factors of security is
gradually forming which aims at successful production and transportation of
energy resources. For the United States, as well as the United Kingdom that
declare different goals and objectives in the South Caucasus, actual
politics in the South Caucasus is subject to the interests of energy and
communication projects which are significantly depoliticized, as well as
military transit the implementation of which is the main goal, while the
priorities are security and stability in the region, with consideration of
tasks relating to Russia, Turkey and Iran.
Along with these basic conditions specific goals of `net' geopolitics and
economy are matched, which, depending on the situation, are grouped as
primary and secondary. Combination of political and economic interests
misleads not only the society but also the political class.
Recently France has had a more important role in working out plans and
schemes of settlement of the Karabakh issue along with its growing
influence on the political processes in the Near East. The United Kingdom
is trying out a systemic policy of participation and influence on the
region, implementing projects aimed at the solution of problems relating to
the global energy and communication goals but its role in the region is
consistently unfolded.
The European Union is trying to highlight its influence and new role in the
region, the growing role of France is felt. It is thus necessary to study
the French policy in the region more substantially as a whole Caucasian
project, considering France's intentions to mark its presence in gas
production and transportation in Azerbaijan. At the same time, the policy
of France on containment of Turkish ambitions remains the same, independent
from the policy of the new president.
The United States is lost, its policy looks less confident, and it is
trying to shed responsibility for one problem or another in the South
Caucasus. These conditions and factors explain the political situation in
the South Caucasus as an action which requires conceptual settings to build
up situation analyses and options. One way or another, the old
understanding and scenarios have been wasted, the former balance of forces
and intentions ended, and there are no new arrangements.
Nevertheless, the situation is uncertain and changeable and cannot have a
serious long-term perspective. There is strong controversy among the main
foreign stakeholders, as well as internal tension in the region when the
situation gets out of control. In this regard, the positions of sides are
not predictable and agreed.
Military actions may resume, leading to a resolution, simplifying the
general scheme of correlation of forces. If the United States is convinced
that it will not have to intervene, and if Russia does not fear that, the
road to war will be open. However, Turkey may, nevertheless, play a crucial
role in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan if it is caught in a
hopeless blockade and isolation and use Azerbaijan's ambitions as a
convenient opportunity to launch a war and prove that Ankara writes
scenarios for the given military and political actions. The reluctance to
see this perspective is understood but confirmation of Armenia's role in
this scenario requires its development.