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WILL RUSSIANS SHAKE ARMENIA?
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26828.html
Published: 13:14:47 - 12/07/2012
Two interesting issues have become urgent in the Armenian press:
the gas price increase and the possible new loan from Russia. The
ministry of energy of Armenia confirmed Armenia is negotiating with
Gazprom on the gas price, while no state body has confirmed or denied
the rumors on the new loan from Russia. According to these rumors,
Armenia is trying to receive a loan of USD 800 million or 1 billion.
The gas issue is again on the political plane being an important
instrument or lever in the hand of Russia against Armenia.
In addition, this lever is used in a very appropriate moment not only
because Russia is worried with Armenia's good relation with the West.
The case is that Armenia is going toward the presidential elections
and will do anything to ensure the gas price does not rise by then
since it will be a tough harm to the economy and the social state of
the citizens, plus, the presidential election is in winter- February.
In this sense, the rumors on the loan of 1 billion are no accident. It
is interesting that the information on the gas price has been
confirmed, while the loan issue is not commented on.
The point is that Russia is trying to kill two birds with one stone:
it increases the gas price and tries to alleviate this burden with
the help of a loan.
Maybe Armenia had hoped to do it with the help of Western donors,
but the donors' conference was postponed. And the official Yerevan
explained that it had never been sure, so the event was postponed
for a better preparation and bigger effectiveness.
The European position is that Armenia will have the donors' conference
only after the presidential elections if the election mechanism is
improved, or the corruption is fought better and the country activates
its efforts in the Karabakh issue.
The Armenian power seems to have no other way because it had to
think about it earlier. The point is not about funds, a new source of
subsidizing the gas price, but merely, about economic modernization
thanks to which, Armenia could render its economy more or less
resistant to the gas price repressions.
Armenia had to think about this years ago, but then, they were not
engaged in preparing and modernizing the economy to resist the gas
repressions, but they were selling everything to compensate for the
gas price increase for election reasons.
An example: in 2006, when fifth power block of Hrazdan TPP was sold
to Russia, which was later subsided for three years: both the gas
sold to the population and the gas supplied for the business. More,
the bigger subsidies went to the enterprises of Gagik Tsarukyan and
Mikhail Baghdasarov. By the way, Tsarukyan was considered Robert
Kocharyan's and Baghdasarov - Serzh Sargsyan's people.
At first sight, Armenia made a brilliant deal with Russia ensuring no
gas price for three years for the population and the business. But,
this first sight had to be strengthened by systemic reforms,
modernization of the economy, diversification, innovative economy in
those three years. While, instead of these steps, in the 2006-2008
period, the Armenian authorities were engaged in distributing and
redistributing the power, which brought to zero the three-year gas
"ceasefire".
Armenia is again facing the same issue and once again, the same version
is proposed: the gas price increases but it is subsided. And Armenia,
again, does not have any way or resource to refuse this version
because otherwise, Russia could provoke serious shakes; moreover,
it seems to have succeeded in forming an alliance in the face of the
Prosperous Armenia and the Armenian National Congress.
Under these conditions, there is no doubt, Serzh Sargsyan will not
run the risk and will not increase risks for the prospect of the
state not even to reduce his risky state for a short time.
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments26828.html
Published: 13:14:47 - 12/07/2012
Two interesting issues have become urgent in the Armenian press:
the gas price increase and the possible new loan from Russia. The
ministry of energy of Armenia confirmed Armenia is negotiating with
Gazprom on the gas price, while no state body has confirmed or denied
the rumors on the new loan from Russia. According to these rumors,
Armenia is trying to receive a loan of USD 800 million or 1 billion.
The gas issue is again on the political plane being an important
instrument or lever in the hand of Russia against Armenia.
In addition, this lever is used in a very appropriate moment not only
because Russia is worried with Armenia's good relation with the West.
The case is that Armenia is going toward the presidential elections
and will do anything to ensure the gas price does not rise by then
since it will be a tough harm to the economy and the social state of
the citizens, plus, the presidential election is in winter- February.
In this sense, the rumors on the loan of 1 billion are no accident. It
is interesting that the information on the gas price has been
confirmed, while the loan issue is not commented on.
The point is that Russia is trying to kill two birds with one stone:
it increases the gas price and tries to alleviate this burden with
the help of a loan.
Maybe Armenia had hoped to do it with the help of Western donors,
but the donors' conference was postponed. And the official Yerevan
explained that it had never been sure, so the event was postponed
for a better preparation and bigger effectiveness.
The European position is that Armenia will have the donors' conference
only after the presidential elections if the election mechanism is
improved, or the corruption is fought better and the country activates
its efforts in the Karabakh issue.
The Armenian power seems to have no other way because it had to
think about it earlier. The point is not about funds, a new source of
subsidizing the gas price, but merely, about economic modernization
thanks to which, Armenia could render its economy more or less
resistant to the gas price repressions.
Armenia had to think about this years ago, but then, they were not
engaged in preparing and modernizing the economy to resist the gas
repressions, but they were selling everything to compensate for the
gas price increase for election reasons.
An example: in 2006, when fifth power block of Hrazdan TPP was sold
to Russia, which was later subsided for three years: both the gas
sold to the population and the gas supplied for the business. More,
the bigger subsidies went to the enterprises of Gagik Tsarukyan and
Mikhail Baghdasarov. By the way, Tsarukyan was considered Robert
Kocharyan's and Baghdasarov - Serzh Sargsyan's people.
At first sight, Armenia made a brilliant deal with Russia ensuring no
gas price for three years for the population and the business. But,
this first sight had to be strengthened by systemic reforms,
modernization of the economy, diversification, innovative economy in
those three years. While, instead of these steps, in the 2006-2008
period, the Armenian authorities were engaged in distributing and
redistributing the power, which brought to zero the three-year gas
"ceasefire".
Armenia is again facing the same issue and once again, the same version
is proposed: the gas price increases but it is subsided. And Armenia,
again, does not have any way or resource to refuse this version
because otherwise, Russia could provoke serious shakes; moreover,
it seems to have succeeded in forming an alliance in the face of the
Prosperous Armenia and the Armenian National Congress.
Under these conditions, there is no doubt, Serzh Sargsyan will not
run the risk and will not increase risks for the prospect of the
state not even to reduce his risky state for a short time.