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ARMENIA AND IRAN AGREE TO BOOST SECURITY CO-OPERATION
BY: Lilit Gevorgyan
Global Insight
July 12, 2012
Armenia and Iran hailed the conclusion of a security co-operation
agreement aimed at improving common border security and combating
organised crime.
Strategic and Security Ties
Armenia Police Chief Lieutenant-General Vladimir Gasparyan urged
the Iranian Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar to implement
the agreement signed on 10 July during his visit to the Armenian
capital Yerevan. The security deal spells out areas of bilateral
collaboration, including the fight against organised crime, drug
smuggling and strengthening the common border.
Mohammad-Najjar's visit was not only about specific security issues
but to bring a message to Yerevan that Iran is interested to expand
its commercial and energy ties with its neighbour. During his meeting
with Armenian Energy Minister Armen Movsesyan, the Iranian minister
emphasised "bright prospects" for Armenian-Iranian ties, adding that
"Iran considers no limit for promoting ties with Armenia". The Islamic
Republic's representative said that his country is ready to elevate
relations with Armenia, "the brother and friend country to the highest
level." Armenia highlighted a positive trend in bilateral trade,
currently at USD300 million annually. Both parties aim to triple this
figure in the next two years.
Iran's Drug Trafficking Problem
Iran has long taken the issue of drug trafficking seriously and it is
one of the few areas of major multilateral co-operation between the
Islamic Republic and its Sunni Arab neighbours. An agreement with
Qatar facilitating increased co-operation on counter-narcotics and
counter-terrorism operations was signed in Tehran on 10 April, despite
the often tense bilateral relations between the two (seeIran - Qatar:
12 April 2012:). Despite stringent penalties for drug traffickers,
frequently the death penalty, the 2011 US International Narcotics
Control Report noted that approximately 40% of Afghani opium is
transited through Iran. Moreover, 2.4% of the adult population are
classed as drug-dependent opiate users. Iran has long sought to
gain better control of its long eastern borders with Afghanistan
and Pakistan and blames its neighbours' respective governments for
their failure to establish security within their territory. However,
this overlooks the lawlessness prevalent within much of Iran's border
regions, not least in Sistan-Baluchestan where much of the populace is
resentful of the regime and central authority is widely flouted. For
Armenia, close relations with Iran appear to come with a cost of
increased drug trafficking that the recent agreement is expected to
help to combat.
Carefully Designed Relations
On the surface, Armenia and Iran have little in common and hence their
strong partnership could be puzzling for some observers. Armenia's
heritage as the first Christian nation in the world has not deterred
the Islamic Republic from forging close relations with Armenia.
Neither has it been deterred by the fact that for over 22 years
Armenia has been locked in the currently frozen armed conflict with
neighbouring, predominantly Shi'a Muslim Azerbaijan, over the status
of the mainly ethnic-Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Geopolitical and historic factors have united the two neighbours, which
have learned to avoid uncomfortable issues and instead concentrate
on bilateral relations that date back to pre-Christian times. Iran's
small but influential Armenian community, created with the efforts of
Iran's former rulers over two centuries ago, has served as a bridge
for developing commercial relations between the two countries after
Armenia gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
When it comes to its four neighbours, Armenia's choice is limited. For
two decades now Armenia's longest borders with Turkey in the west
and Azerbaijan in the east have been closed, as the two ethnic kin
countries have imposed a blockade on Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. As
such Iran and Georgia remain the only two countries for the landlocked
country and its economic survival, especially in the early 1990s during
the Nagorno-Karabakh war. Armenia's economic blockade and precarious
state of Russian energy supplies via Georgia has prompted Yerevan to
start energy collaboration with Iran. A gas pipeline connecting Iran
with Armenia has been built and is currently operational. Under the
2004 contract, Armenia gets two million cubic metres of natural gas
per day from Iran.
Armenian foreign policy orientation had been changing throughout
the past two decades, marking periods of closer ties with the West
or Russia but relations with Iran have been remarkably stable and
positive. Armenia has refrained from taking a position on the issue
of the Iranian nuclear programme. Iran at the same time has equally
abstained from commenting on its northern neighbour's contribution to
NATO military operations in Afghanistan, or the presence of Armenian
peacekeepers in Iraq. There is also a general understanding that
currently on the geopolitical issues that divide Iran and the West
if Armenia has to take a stance it would be similar to the Russian
position.
Outlook and Implications
Armenian-Iranian relations appear to have their own dynamics which
is somewhat detached from Iran's overall problematic relations with
the West. However, these ties cannot be immune to the deterioration
in Iran's relations with the West. Armenia is nervous about the
increasing sanctions on Iran and worst of all, of a potential military
strike against the country as it may destabilise the already volatile
region. Because Armenia has very few options in terms of its economic
partners and transport routes connected with the rest of the world, it
has thus far made a successful case for its close economic relations
with Tehran. It is unclear how Armenia can maintain these relations
and develop them if the sanctions against Iran become more stringent.
Iran is keen to develop relations with neighbouring and regional
states to demonstrate the regime's strength and influence in the
face of stringent international sanctions. This strategy has become
increasingly pronounced in Iraq, where ties with the administration
of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki are particularly strong and Iranian
support proved vital for his construction of a coalition government in
2010 (seeIran - Iraq: 10 May 2012:). Nevertheless, US and EU sanctions
are taking a heavy toll on the Iranian economy, with the population
suffering from rampant inflation and a depreciating currency. Under
tough US sanctions, foreign institutions dealing with Iran's central
bank will be blocked from the US financial system, and countries
importing Iranian oil will face further sanctions. Despite Iranian
rhetoric that these sanctions will not affect its oil exports,
they are likely to halve from last year's levels, affecting state
revenues by more than USD3.4 billion per month. Moreover, increased
production in Saudi Arabia and Iraq is making up for the absence of
Iranian hydrocarbons from global energy markets, preventing a spike
in oil prices.
Aside from economic concerns, security is also a major issue for
Armenia. This refers not only to organised crime and drug trafficking
but much wider problems again linked with Iran's stained relations
with the West. Iran's problems with Azerbaijan have pushed Yerevan
and Tehran closer. Although both Azerbaijan and Iran are mainly
Shi'a Muslim countries there are a number of divisive issues that
have fraught bilateral relations. Firstly, Azerbaijan has become
increasingly vocal about its territorial claims on the homonymous
region in Northern Iran. Baku's claims are populist at best and
are unlikely to succeed. Still, this unnerves Iran, which had long
questioned the adoption of the name Azerbaijan by the Soviets in the
first place. Disagreements remain over the hydrocarbon-rich Caspian
Sea maritime border demarcation. But the most worrying development
for Iran has been the close relations between Azerbaijan and Israel,
especially after Azerbaijan confirmed a USD1.6-billion arms supply
deal with Israel (seeAzerbaijan - Israel: 27 February 2012:). The
deal was followed by unconfirmed reports that Azerbaijan may provide
its airfields to Israel against potential military anti-Iranian strike.
Given a number of geopolitical and historic factors, Armenian-Iranian
relations are likely to remain strong. If Iran's standoff with the
West worsens Armenia will probably seek damage control from potential
fallout by adopting a neural position. For increasingly isolated Iran,
politically neutral Armenian remains an attractive political partner.
BY: Lilit Gevorgyan
Global Insight
July 12, 2012
Armenia and Iran hailed the conclusion of a security co-operation
agreement aimed at improving common border security and combating
organised crime.
Strategic and Security Ties
Armenia Police Chief Lieutenant-General Vladimir Gasparyan urged
the Iranian Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar to implement
the agreement signed on 10 July during his visit to the Armenian
capital Yerevan. The security deal spells out areas of bilateral
collaboration, including the fight against organised crime, drug
smuggling and strengthening the common border.
Mohammad-Najjar's visit was not only about specific security issues
but to bring a message to Yerevan that Iran is interested to expand
its commercial and energy ties with its neighbour. During his meeting
with Armenian Energy Minister Armen Movsesyan, the Iranian minister
emphasised "bright prospects" for Armenian-Iranian ties, adding that
"Iran considers no limit for promoting ties with Armenia". The Islamic
Republic's representative said that his country is ready to elevate
relations with Armenia, "the brother and friend country to the highest
level." Armenia highlighted a positive trend in bilateral trade,
currently at USD300 million annually. Both parties aim to triple this
figure in the next two years.
Iran's Drug Trafficking Problem
Iran has long taken the issue of drug trafficking seriously and it is
one of the few areas of major multilateral co-operation between the
Islamic Republic and its Sunni Arab neighbours. An agreement with
Qatar facilitating increased co-operation on counter-narcotics and
counter-terrorism operations was signed in Tehran on 10 April, despite
the often tense bilateral relations between the two (seeIran - Qatar:
12 April 2012:). Despite stringent penalties for drug traffickers,
frequently the death penalty, the 2011 US International Narcotics
Control Report noted that approximately 40% of Afghani opium is
transited through Iran. Moreover, 2.4% of the adult population are
classed as drug-dependent opiate users. Iran has long sought to
gain better control of its long eastern borders with Afghanistan
and Pakistan and blames its neighbours' respective governments for
their failure to establish security within their territory. However,
this overlooks the lawlessness prevalent within much of Iran's border
regions, not least in Sistan-Baluchestan where much of the populace is
resentful of the regime and central authority is widely flouted. For
Armenia, close relations with Iran appear to come with a cost of
increased drug trafficking that the recent agreement is expected to
help to combat.
Carefully Designed Relations
On the surface, Armenia and Iran have little in common and hence their
strong partnership could be puzzling for some observers. Armenia's
heritage as the first Christian nation in the world has not deterred
the Islamic Republic from forging close relations with Armenia.
Neither has it been deterred by the fact that for over 22 years
Armenia has been locked in the currently frozen armed conflict with
neighbouring, predominantly Shi'a Muslim Azerbaijan, over the status
of the mainly ethnic-Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Geopolitical and historic factors have united the two neighbours, which
have learned to avoid uncomfortable issues and instead concentrate
on bilateral relations that date back to pre-Christian times. Iran's
small but influential Armenian community, created with the efforts of
Iran's former rulers over two centuries ago, has served as a bridge
for developing commercial relations between the two countries after
Armenia gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
When it comes to its four neighbours, Armenia's choice is limited. For
two decades now Armenia's longest borders with Turkey in the west
and Azerbaijan in the east have been closed, as the two ethnic kin
countries have imposed a blockade on Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. As
such Iran and Georgia remain the only two countries for the landlocked
country and its economic survival, especially in the early 1990s during
the Nagorno-Karabakh war. Armenia's economic blockade and precarious
state of Russian energy supplies via Georgia has prompted Yerevan to
start energy collaboration with Iran. A gas pipeline connecting Iran
with Armenia has been built and is currently operational. Under the
2004 contract, Armenia gets two million cubic metres of natural gas
per day from Iran.
Armenian foreign policy orientation had been changing throughout
the past two decades, marking periods of closer ties with the West
or Russia but relations with Iran have been remarkably stable and
positive. Armenia has refrained from taking a position on the issue
of the Iranian nuclear programme. Iran at the same time has equally
abstained from commenting on its northern neighbour's contribution to
NATO military operations in Afghanistan, or the presence of Armenian
peacekeepers in Iraq. There is also a general understanding that
currently on the geopolitical issues that divide Iran and the West
if Armenia has to take a stance it would be similar to the Russian
position.
Outlook and Implications
Armenian-Iranian relations appear to have their own dynamics which
is somewhat detached from Iran's overall problematic relations with
the West. However, these ties cannot be immune to the deterioration
in Iran's relations with the West. Armenia is nervous about the
increasing sanctions on Iran and worst of all, of a potential military
strike against the country as it may destabilise the already volatile
region. Because Armenia has very few options in terms of its economic
partners and transport routes connected with the rest of the world, it
has thus far made a successful case for its close economic relations
with Tehran. It is unclear how Armenia can maintain these relations
and develop them if the sanctions against Iran become more stringent.
Iran is keen to develop relations with neighbouring and regional
states to demonstrate the regime's strength and influence in the
face of stringent international sanctions. This strategy has become
increasingly pronounced in Iraq, where ties with the administration
of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki are particularly strong and Iranian
support proved vital for his construction of a coalition government in
2010 (seeIran - Iraq: 10 May 2012:). Nevertheless, US and EU sanctions
are taking a heavy toll on the Iranian economy, with the population
suffering from rampant inflation and a depreciating currency. Under
tough US sanctions, foreign institutions dealing with Iran's central
bank will be blocked from the US financial system, and countries
importing Iranian oil will face further sanctions. Despite Iranian
rhetoric that these sanctions will not affect its oil exports,
they are likely to halve from last year's levels, affecting state
revenues by more than USD3.4 billion per month. Moreover, increased
production in Saudi Arabia and Iraq is making up for the absence of
Iranian hydrocarbons from global energy markets, preventing a spike
in oil prices.
Aside from economic concerns, security is also a major issue for
Armenia. This refers not only to organised crime and drug trafficking
but much wider problems again linked with Iran's stained relations
with the West. Iran's problems with Azerbaijan have pushed Yerevan
and Tehran closer. Although both Azerbaijan and Iran are mainly
Shi'a Muslim countries there are a number of divisive issues that
have fraught bilateral relations. Firstly, Azerbaijan has become
increasingly vocal about its territorial claims on the homonymous
region in Northern Iran. Baku's claims are populist at best and
are unlikely to succeed. Still, this unnerves Iran, which had long
questioned the adoption of the name Azerbaijan by the Soviets in the
first place. Disagreements remain over the hydrocarbon-rich Caspian
Sea maritime border demarcation. But the most worrying development
for Iran has been the close relations between Azerbaijan and Israel,
especially after Azerbaijan confirmed a USD1.6-billion arms supply
deal with Israel (seeAzerbaijan - Israel: 27 February 2012:). The
deal was followed by unconfirmed reports that Azerbaijan may provide
its airfields to Israel against potential military anti-Iranian strike.
Given a number of geopolitical and historic factors, Armenian-Iranian
relations are likely to remain strong. If Iran's standoff with the
West worsens Armenia will probably seek damage control from potential
fallout by adopting a neural position. For increasingly isolated Iran,
politically neutral Armenian remains an attractive political partner.