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Cautious Partners Turkey, Russia To Talk Ties, Rivalries

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  • Cautious Partners Turkey, Russia To Talk Ties, Rivalries

    CAUTIOUS PARTNERS TURKEY, RUSSIA TO TALK TIES, RIVALRIES
    By Thomas Grove

    Reuters
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/17/russia-turkey-idUSL6E8IHAPL20120717
    July 18 2012

    MOSCOW, July 17 (Reuters) - A gleaming skyscraper rises from the
    ultra-modern financial centre in the heart of Moscow, dwarfing
    cathedral cuppolas and bombastic Stalinist highrises, a symbol of
    how far Turkish business has come in the former Cold War rival.

    The distinctive Turkish-built steel and glass towers of Naberezhnaya,
    the second tallest skyscraper in Russia, will serve as a powerful
    backdrop when President Vladimir Putin hosts visiting Turkish Prime
    Minister Tayyip Erdogan in the Kremlin on Wednesday to talk business,
    energy and regional power politics.

    Projects by construction company Enka underscore Erdogan's signature
    mix of business and politics that has expanded NATO-member Turkey's
    presence in the Middle East, Africa and former Soviet Union, where
    Russia still jealously guards its interests.

    "Turkey today is much more assertive and independent than it was 20
    years ago. It wants to be not only a part of NATO and American-led
    alliances, but also an independent player in the whole area," said
    Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.

    But Turkey's regional aspirations in areas where Moscow is sensitive
    to its waning influence have complicated an already intricate
    relationship in which cooperation in trade and energy politics is
    set off by conflicting regional foreign policies.

    "Turkey and Russia resemble each other; they have the same claims.

    Psychologically, Putin and Erdogan understand each other quite well,
    but at the same time all their interests do not coincide. For example,
    we see that in the Middle East."

    Almost a year after the death of Russian ally Muammar Gadaffi in
    Libya, Moscow and Ankara are at diplomatic loggerheads over the fate
    of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

    Once photographed with Assad and his family at a vacation resort
    before anti-government uprisings demanding his departure, Erdogan
    has since turned his back on the former ally, calling for his removal
    and hosting Syrian rebel fighters on its soil.

    Turkey's ire was raised last month when Syria, recipient of Russian
    air defence systems, downed a fighter jet that it claimed was in its
    airspace. The incident forced Ankara to call on the other member states
    of NATO for consultations over what it called an "act of aggression".

    Putin however, fearing a replay of the Libyan scenario, has continued
    sending Assad arms and has protected him from harsher sanctions at
    the U.N. Security Council.

    Moscow would be loath to see its last stronghold in the Middle East
    fall - especially one that hosts a small naval maintenance and repair
    facility, Russia's only naval base outside of the former Soviet Union.

    DIVIDED LOYALTIES

    Indicating that Erdogan may work to try to influence Putin's position
    over Syria, Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc told reporters that
    new unilateral sanctions against Syria may be passed after Erdogan
    returns from Moscow.

    "I can say assuredly that new horizons will open up on this subject
    (Syria) after our prime minister's visit to Russia and that new
    sanctions against Syria will come onto the agenda," Arinc told
    reporters after a cabinet meeting on Monday.

    Russia, for its part, has made clear it has no plans to back sanctions
    against Assad. It h as stressed it will not agree to negotiations
    that make his departure a precondition.

    Russia and Turkey are also aware of their differences in the South
    Caucasus region where their respective loyalties to Armenia and
    Azerbaijan divide them in the frozen conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh.

    War between ethnic Azeris and Armenians erupted in 1991 over the
    mostly Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh region, which broke away from Muslim
    Azerbaijan with the backing of Christian Armenia as the Soviet Union
    collapsed two decades ago.

    Turkey closed its border with Armenia in a gesture of solidarity with
    ethnic kin in Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Russia,
    on the other hand, maintains an army base in Armenia.

    "In the Caucasus there is always a potential rivalry (between Russia
    and Turkey)," said Lukyanov.

    DEPENDENCE

    Turkish construction firm Enka restored Moscow's White House in
    1994 after then President Boris Yeltsin ordered tanks to fire at
    parliamentarians holed up in the building during a rebellion against
    his leadership.

    Analysts say the construction projects Turkish firms receive are part
    of a complex tit-for-tat exchange between the two countries that has
    seen Turkey raise the amount of gas it buys from Russia to nearly
    half its total imports.

    In 2008 Russia overtook Germany as Turkey's biggest trading partner,
    the lion's share of which has come from natural gas contracts.

    Turkey hopes to use its geographic location between oil rich states on
    the Caspian and energy hungry Europe to boost its clout as an energy
    transit hub and has looked primarily to Russia and Azerbaijan to fill
    that role.

    Ankara's dependency on Moscow has led some analysts to speculate
    that while the two countries have their differences, Erdogan may be
    going to make sure Putin understands the two countries are still by
    and large partners.

    "It won't be suprising for Erdogan to knock on the Kremlin walls
    trying to persuade Putin (over Syria) and get no response," wrote
    columnist Sami Kohen in Milliyet newspaper.

    "However, from the point of view of minimising the effect of the
    shadow Syria has cast across their relationship, it will be important
    and helpful to continue a sincere dialogue."

    Turkey has approved Russia's plans to allow the almost $20 billion
    South Stream pipeline, which aims to supply southern Europe with
    63 billion cubic metres of natural gas a year, to pass under its
    territorial waters.

    Even with Turkey's permission to build the pipeline through its waters,
    Ankara may still use the line as a chip in negotiations over gaining
    enough gas for its own domestic supply. (Additional reporting by
    Daren Butler in Istanbul and Orhan Coskun in Ankara; editing by
    Ralph Boulton)

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