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KARABAKH CONFLICT WILL STILL BE WARMED UP - RUSSIAN EXPERT
News.Az
Wed 25 July 2012 05:24 GMT | 6:24 Local Time
News.Az interviews Russian political scientist Grigoriy Trofimchuk.
How real is the military script of the Iranian problem settlement
especially with participation of Azerbaijan, as stated by some
western media?
I think that the plot with Israel, its alleged special role in
the potential war with Iran is generally quite invented and mostly
exaggerated. Israel does not play any independent role. The matter is
that the opportunities of this country are merely used for definite
goals that can be implemented by those who back Israel, and try to
involve such countries as Azerbaijan into this information warfare.
Azerbaijan may become a key point, a key country in the development
of these events, if the situation around Iran will further radicalize.
Therefore, the mass of such information leaks are directed towards
Azerbaijan.
Can Azerbaijan avert the negative impact of this information campaign?
After all, the republic has an uneasy neighborhood.
Azerbaijan should be attentive in assessing it all, show the right
reaction because the matter here is not only about Israel. The main
problems lie in the relations between official Baku and official
Tehran. Here, there are very many scripts that happened on practice, in
particular, the one that occurred in the recent past on the diplomatic
level with the ambassadors of the two countries.
There will be attempts to drag Azerbaijan into this situation to
settle these probably most unpleasant aspects of this supposed (I
have to repeat the word 'supposed') war with someone\s hands.
If Azerbaijan is not involved and shows the right reaction to all
this, the situation will be complicated to those who are eager to
cause clash between countries inside the region. Then Azerbaijan will
get definite trump cars which it will be able to use merely because
it neighbors Iran.
Karabakh conflict is another highly explosive point in our region.
There are many information laws, provocative steps like the recent
'elections' in Karabakh here too. Are they dangerous for the resolution
and provocation of a new war?
Karabakh conflict will still be warmed up, again in connection with
the anti-Iranian situation. I think that both Azerbaijan and Armenia
must take these circumstances into account. And in order not to be
dragged into the war, when no one will deal with the contradictions
between Baku and Yerevan over the past two decade, both countries
will be merely put into an unpleasant situation. Considering these
circumstances, the conflict parties should take some nonstandard steps
which do not correspond to the information solutions (and further
probably the military and political ones) which someone invents for
the South Caucasus countries.
It is necessary to realize that on the backdrop of the supposed
global events in all this region- in the Middle East and Greater
Caucasus-these events have to push the conflict parties at least
to some statements with the understanding of the fact that Nagorno
Karabakh will move to a bit different, lower level on this background.
And probably, it is worth trying to find some practical solutions to
this conflict or at least on the contrary, to make some movements in
this sense not only in what has to do with the exchange of prisoners,
but also execution of some part of earlier agreements. That is it is
necessary to show the world that Azerbaijan and Armenia are able to
start the settlement of the problems between them even without Russia.
And when the external world sees that for the first time in a very
long period of time there is such an initiative from Azerbaijan and
Armenia, the world and the forces that back anti-Iranian offensive
will be obliged to analyze this situation. And respectively, in this
case again some trump cards, at least small ones, will remain on the
hands of Azerbaijan and probably Armenia.
That is, the South Caucasus has to demonstrate itself in a different
way in order not to turn into a hostage of policy generated by
someone. The South Caucasus countries should generate their policy
independently. In this case they will settle not only the anti-Iranian
problem but also, I do not rule out, to start the settlement of the
Karabakh conflict.
News.Az
Wed 25 July 2012 05:24 GMT | 6:24 Local Time
News.Az interviews Russian political scientist Grigoriy Trofimchuk.
How real is the military script of the Iranian problem settlement
especially with participation of Azerbaijan, as stated by some
western media?
I think that the plot with Israel, its alleged special role in
the potential war with Iran is generally quite invented and mostly
exaggerated. Israel does not play any independent role. The matter is
that the opportunities of this country are merely used for definite
goals that can be implemented by those who back Israel, and try to
involve such countries as Azerbaijan into this information warfare.
Azerbaijan may become a key point, a key country in the development
of these events, if the situation around Iran will further radicalize.
Therefore, the mass of such information leaks are directed towards
Azerbaijan.
Can Azerbaijan avert the negative impact of this information campaign?
After all, the republic has an uneasy neighborhood.
Azerbaijan should be attentive in assessing it all, show the right
reaction because the matter here is not only about Israel. The main
problems lie in the relations between official Baku and official
Tehran. Here, there are very many scripts that happened on practice, in
particular, the one that occurred in the recent past on the diplomatic
level with the ambassadors of the two countries.
There will be attempts to drag Azerbaijan into this situation to
settle these probably most unpleasant aspects of this supposed (I
have to repeat the word 'supposed') war with someone\s hands.
If Azerbaijan is not involved and shows the right reaction to all
this, the situation will be complicated to those who are eager to
cause clash between countries inside the region. Then Azerbaijan will
get definite trump cars which it will be able to use merely because
it neighbors Iran.
Karabakh conflict is another highly explosive point in our region.
There are many information laws, provocative steps like the recent
'elections' in Karabakh here too. Are they dangerous for the resolution
and provocation of a new war?
Karabakh conflict will still be warmed up, again in connection with
the anti-Iranian situation. I think that both Azerbaijan and Armenia
must take these circumstances into account. And in order not to be
dragged into the war, when no one will deal with the contradictions
between Baku and Yerevan over the past two decade, both countries
will be merely put into an unpleasant situation. Considering these
circumstances, the conflict parties should take some nonstandard steps
which do not correspond to the information solutions (and further
probably the military and political ones) which someone invents for
the South Caucasus countries.
It is necessary to realize that on the backdrop of the supposed
global events in all this region- in the Middle East and Greater
Caucasus-these events have to push the conflict parties at least
to some statements with the understanding of the fact that Nagorno
Karabakh will move to a bit different, lower level on this background.
And probably, it is worth trying to find some practical solutions to
this conflict or at least on the contrary, to make some movements in
this sense not only in what has to do with the exchange of prisoners,
but also execution of some part of earlier agreements. That is it is
necessary to show the world that Azerbaijan and Armenia are able to
start the settlement of the problems between them even without Russia.
And when the external world sees that for the first time in a very
long period of time there is such an initiative from Azerbaijan and
Armenia, the world and the forces that back anti-Iranian offensive
will be obliged to analyze this situation. And respectively, in this
case again some trump cards, at least small ones, will remain on the
hands of Azerbaijan and probably Armenia.
That is, the South Caucasus has to demonstrate itself in a different
way in order not to turn into a hostage of policy generated by
someone. The South Caucasus countries should generate their policy
independently. In this case they will settle not only the anti-Iranian
problem but also, I do not rule out, to start the settlement of the
Karabakh conflict.