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"SMALL" WORLD WAR
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics26466.html
Published: 11:04:09 - 07/06/2012
The developments in Syria and negotiations between Iran and the Western
community indicated gradual alignment of forces in the regions of the
Near East, South and Central Asia and formation of regional "poles".
Iran and Turkey definitely have ambitions and they have really become
these "poles", still there cannot be more illusions on relatively
narrow and long-term cooperation between these two states. A mutual
and principled challenge has been made, which will have far-reaching
consequences not only for these regions. Saudi Arabia, despite
extensive defense preparations, is not a military power but an arms'
warehouse which the Saudi people are unable to understand.
Iran is seriously preparing for a big regional war and the Iranian
politicians have no doubts about the likelihood of a large-scale
regional confrontation. Talks on "limited schemes" of war remained
good expectations and they understood in Tehran what is expected for
the Iranians. In this relation, Iran actually spells out its vision
of a possible war.
Certainly, neither the Iranian people, nor the Iranian society wants a
war, and they try to avoid it but the Iranian elite understands that
in this situation the war is not the worst thing and they will have
to fight for otherwise a national and state catastrophe is possible.
On what is the Iranian strategy based? Iran has worked out several
military actions first of all in the South and North-West directions,
it has acquired so much armament that would be enough for two
regional wars.
There is another circumstance which has to taken into account by
many regional countries. Iran is interested and will try to become
involved in military actions as many countries as possible. This is
clear to the main regional rivals, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Currently, no one doubts that the position of Iran on the Near East
is stronger than Turkey's. Taking into account the fact that the
key sub-region of the Near East is the countries of the "Fertile
Crescent", and not the Arabia sub-region of Maghreb, the Iranian
influence is absolutely more preferable. In a certain sense, Iran's
influence in this key sub-region of the Near East is more important
than the influence of Saudi Arabia.
In case hostilities start, the parties to which are already defined,
the Eastern Mediterranean, the Tigris and Euphrates basin and the
Persian Gulf will become arena for historical confrontation.
Will the South Caucasus be involved in this war? Generally, the
region is considered as a subordinate in the scenarios of war in
the Middle East. But will this be a mistake and could the South
Caucasus detonate a regional war in the Middle East? The Black Sea -
the Caucasus - the Caspian Sea have become the region where you can
read the encoded script of the Middle East war. This will not only
provide increased military presence of the U.S. and NATO in Eurasia
but will also create a barrier between Russia and the Middle East
and possibly also between China and the Middle East.
Most probably, the U.S. military circles understand that it would
be preferable to limit the area of the military actions within the
Persian Gulf zone and some geopolitical points. But, it cannot be
ruled out that the U.S. has some influential groups that would like
to take this situation and enlarge the geography of the military
actions to other regions and sub-regions.
Besides, Iran itself will be interested in the enlargement of the
geography of the military actions which would be an important if not
the crucial resource for Iran's strategy. Politicians in Tehran would
never launch military actions without political aims. First of all, the
point is the change of borders and configuration of state boundaries.
20-30 countries might get involved in a big regional war which we
will have to call a "small world war".
Igor Muradyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics26466.html
Published: 11:04:09 - 07/06/2012
The developments in Syria and negotiations between Iran and the Western
community indicated gradual alignment of forces in the regions of the
Near East, South and Central Asia and formation of regional "poles".
Iran and Turkey definitely have ambitions and they have really become
these "poles", still there cannot be more illusions on relatively
narrow and long-term cooperation between these two states. A mutual
and principled challenge has been made, which will have far-reaching
consequences not only for these regions. Saudi Arabia, despite
extensive defense preparations, is not a military power but an arms'
warehouse which the Saudi people are unable to understand.
Iran is seriously preparing for a big regional war and the Iranian
politicians have no doubts about the likelihood of a large-scale
regional confrontation. Talks on "limited schemes" of war remained
good expectations and they understood in Tehran what is expected for
the Iranians. In this relation, Iran actually spells out its vision
of a possible war.
Certainly, neither the Iranian people, nor the Iranian society wants a
war, and they try to avoid it but the Iranian elite understands that
in this situation the war is not the worst thing and they will have
to fight for otherwise a national and state catastrophe is possible.
On what is the Iranian strategy based? Iran has worked out several
military actions first of all in the South and North-West directions,
it has acquired so much armament that would be enough for two
regional wars.
There is another circumstance which has to taken into account by
many regional countries. Iran is interested and will try to become
involved in military actions as many countries as possible. This is
clear to the main regional rivals, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Currently, no one doubts that the position of Iran on the Near East
is stronger than Turkey's. Taking into account the fact that the
key sub-region of the Near East is the countries of the "Fertile
Crescent", and not the Arabia sub-region of Maghreb, the Iranian
influence is absolutely more preferable. In a certain sense, Iran's
influence in this key sub-region of the Near East is more important
than the influence of Saudi Arabia.
In case hostilities start, the parties to which are already defined,
the Eastern Mediterranean, the Tigris and Euphrates basin and the
Persian Gulf will become arena for historical confrontation.
Will the South Caucasus be involved in this war? Generally, the
region is considered as a subordinate in the scenarios of war in
the Middle East. But will this be a mistake and could the South
Caucasus detonate a regional war in the Middle East? The Black Sea -
the Caucasus - the Caspian Sea have become the region where you can
read the encoded script of the Middle East war. This will not only
provide increased military presence of the U.S. and NATO in Eurasia
but will also create a barrier between Russia and the Middle East
and possibly also between China and the Middle East.
Most probably, the U.S. military circles understand that it would
be preferable to limit the area of the military actions within the
Persian Gulf zone and some geopolitical points. But, it cannot be
ruled out that the U.S. has some influential groups that would like
to take this situation and enlarge the geography of the military
actions to other regions and sub-regions.
Besides, Iran itself will be interested in the enlargement of the
geography of the military actions which would be an important if not
the crucial resource for Iran's strategy. Politicians in Tehran would
never launch military actions without political aims. First of all, the
point is the change of borders and configuration of state boundaries.
20-30 countries might get involved in a big regional war which we
will have to call a "small world war".