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CLINTON IN THE ROILING CAUCASUS
by DENIS CORBOY, WILLIAM COURTNEY and KENNETH YALOWITZ
The International Herald Tribune
June 4, 2012 Monday
France
ABSTRACT
Terrorism and insurgency are spreading as Putin's efforts to increase
the Kremlin's control heighten strains.
FULL TEXT Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to Armenia,
Azerbaijan, and Georgia this week is timely. The Caucasus holds risks
of confrontation that could affect American and European interests,
and it requires regular and high-level attention.
Terrorism and insurgency are spreading in Russia's North Caucasus
region. Russian military occupation of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and
adjacent areas in Georgia heightens strains. Renewed hostilities are
increasingly possible between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the ethnic
Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan.
Vladimir Putin's return to Russia's presidency adds complexity. He
seeks to increase Russia's influence over former Soviet neighbors,
counterbalancing the appeal of the NATO and the European Union. Last
month, Putin skipped a G-8 summit but convened leaders from the
Collective Security Treaty Organization, whose other members are
Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Russia is pushing for a widened Eurasian customs union, which Ukraine
is resisting.
The Kremlin is skeptical about democratic openings on its borders,
such as the 2003 Rose revolution in Georgia and the one a year later
in Ukraine. Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008 violated established
precedent in seeking to change by force borders of the former Soviet
states. Moscow engineered proclamations of independence by Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, but they are effectively being integrated into Russia.
Although last year Georgia agreed to allow Russia to join the World
Trade Organization, relationships remain tenuous. The Kremlin
refuses to deal with President Mikheil Saakashvili, and most
economic ties are suspended. Last month in Chicago, despite Moscow's
opposition, NATO reaffirmed that Georgia will become a member and
noted its "substantial contribution" - including in Afghanistan
- to Euro-Atlantic security. Georgia's holding of free and fair
parliamentary elections this year and presidential elections in 2013
will influence NATO attitudes about membership.
War over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s displaced about a
million people and gave Armenia control of the enclave and another 9
percent of Azerbaijan's territory. The Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe seeks a mediated solution, but negotiations are
long stalled. A fragile cease-fire is frequently violated. Russia
arms Armenia and maintains a military base there. Azerbaijan uses
its oil wealth for an arms buildup, and its ally Turkey has closed
the border with Armenia for more than a decade. The Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict could suddenly become unfrozen.
In the North Caucasus, popular alienation and militant violence are
increasing. Two dozen Russian soldiers died in an attack three days
before Putin's inauguration last month. Russia relies mostly on force
and economic subsidies to quell resistance, but the strategy has not
worked. Terrorism could be a real threat to the 2014 Winter Olympic
games in Sochi. Moscow might again blame Azerbaijan and Georgia for
aiding terrorists, as it did falsely in 1999 regarding Chechnya.
How can the America and Europe lessen risks in the Caucasus?
They should continue to stand firm for the independence of Georgia and
against the illegal occupation of one-fifth of its territory. Moscow
ought not to be allowed to assert control over the export of Caspian
energy through Georgia. Europe and America should importune Georgia
not to stir anti-Russian animosities in the North Caucasus. They ought
to cooperate with Russia to prevent terrorist acts around the Olympics.
America and Europe can no longer keep the Nagorno-Karabakh talks on
the back burner. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev faces domestic
pressures to act, but Europe and America should caution him about
the adverse consequences, notably a broader regional war. Energy
investment in Azerbaijan and a major new gas pipeline to Europe,
Nabucco, could become casualties.
O.S.C.E. members have largely stopped engaging Russia about tensions
in the North Caucasus, but risks grow and could spill over into
Azerbaijan and Georgia. Members should use the permanent council in
Vienna to raise concerns and begin a dialogue.
In her visit, Secretary Clinton should spotlight these tensions
and offer reassurance that the West will work actively to prevent
confrontation and conflict.
by DENIS CORBOY, WILLIAM COURTNEY and KENNETH YALOWITZ
The International Herald Tribune
June 4, 2012 Monday
France
ABSTRACT
Terrorism and insurgency are spreading as Putin's efforts to increase
the Kremlin's control heighten strains.
FULL TEXT Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to Armenia,
Azerbaijan, and Georgia this week is timely. The Caucasus holds risks
of confrontation that could affect American and European interests,
and it requires regular and high-level attention.
Terrorism and insurgency are spreading in Russia's North Caucasus
region. Russian military occupation of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and
adjacent areas in Georgia heightens strains. Renewed hostilities are
increasingly possible between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the ethnic
Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan.
Vladimir Putin's return to Russia's presidency adds complexity. He
seeks to increase Russia's influence over former Soviet neighbors,
counterbalancing the appeal of the NATO and the European Union. Last
month, Putin skipped a G-8 summit but convened leaders from the
Collective Security Treaty Organization, whose other members are
Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Russia is pushing for a widened Eurasian customs union, which Ukraine
is resisting.
The Kremlin is skeptical about democratic openings on its borders,
such as the 2003 Rose revolution in Georgia and the one a year later
in Ukraine. Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008 violated established
precedent in seeking to change by force borders of the former Soviet
states. Moscow engineered proclamations of independence by Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, but they are effectively being integrated into Russia.
Although last year Georgia agreed to allow Russia to join the World
Trade Organization, relationships remain tenuous. The Kremlin
refuses to deal with President Mikheil Saakashvili, and most
economic ties are suspended. Last month in Chicago, despite Moscow's
opposition, NATO reaffirmed that Georgia will become a member and
noted its "substantial contribution" - including in Afghanistan
- to Euro-Atlantic security. Georgia's holding of free and fair
parliamentary elections this year and presidential elections in 2013
will influence NATO attitudes about membership.
War over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s displaced about a
million people and gave Armenia control of the enclave and another 9
percent of Azerbaijan's territory. The Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe seeks a mediated solution, but negotiations are
long stalled. A fragile cease-fire is frequently violated. Russia
arms Armenia and maintains a military base there. Azerbaijan uses
its oil wealth for an arms buildup, and its ally Turkey has closed
the border with Armenia for more than a decade. The Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict could suddenly become unfrozen.
In the North Caucasus, popular alienation and militant violence are
increasing. Two dozen Russian soldiers died in an attack three days
before Putin's inauguration last month. Russia relies mostly on force
and economic subsidies to quell resistance, but the strategy has not
worked. Terrorism could be a real threat to the 2014 Winter Olympic
games in Sochi. Moscow might again blame Azerbaijan and Georgia for
aiding terrorists, as it did falsely in 1999 regarding Chechnya.
How can the America and Europe lessen risks in the Caucasus?
They should continue to stand firm for the independence of Georgia and
against the illegal occupation of one-fifth of its territory. Moscow
ought not to be allowed to assert control over the export of Caspian
energy through Georgia. Europe and America should importune Georgia
not to stir anti-Russian animosities in the North Caucasus. They ought
to cooperate with Russia to prevent terrorist acts around the Olympics.
America and Europe can no longer keep the Nagorno-Karabakh talks on
the back burner. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev faces domestic
pressures to act, but Europe and America should caution him about
the adverse consequences, notably a broader regional war. Energy
investment in Azerbaijan and a major new gas pipeline to Europe,
Nabucco, could become casualties.
O.S.C.E. members have largely stopped engaging Russia about tensions
in the North Caucasus, but risks grow and could spill over into
Azerbaijan and Georgia. Members should use the permanent council in
Vienna to raise concerns and begin a dialogue.
In her visit, Secretary Clinton should spotlight these tensions
and offer reassurance that the West will work actively to prevent
confrontation and conflict.