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Clinton In The Roiling Caucasus

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  • Clinton In The Roiling Caucasus

    CLINTON IN THE ROILING CAUCASUS
    by DENIS CORBOY, WILLIAM COURTNEY and KENNETH YALOWITZ

    The International Herald Tribune
    June 4, 2012 Monday
    France

    ABSTRACT
    Terrorism and insurgency are spreading as Putin's efforts to increase
    the Kremlin's control heighten strains.

    FULL TEXT Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to Armenia,
    Azerbaijan, and Georgia this week is timely. The Caucasus holds risks
    of confrontation that could affect American and European interests,
    and it requires regular and high-level attention.

    Terrorism and insurgency are spreading in Russia's North Caucasus
    region. Russian military occupation of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and
    adjacent areas in Georgia heightens strains. Renewed hostilities are
    increasingly possible between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the ethnic
    Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan.

    Vladimir Putin's return to Russia's presidency adds complexity. He
    seeks to increase Russia's influence over former Soviet neighbors,
    counterbalancing the appeal of the NATO and the European Union. Last
    month, Putin skipped a G-8 summit but convened leaders from the
    Collective Security Treaty Organization, whose other members are
    Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

    Russia is pushing for a widened Eurasian customs union, which Ukraine
    is resisting.

    The Kremlin is skeptical about democratic openings on its borders,
    such as the 2003 Rose revolution in Georgia and the one a year later
    in Ukraine. Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008 violated established
    precedent in seeking to change by force borders of the former Soviet
    states. Moscow engineered proclamations of independence by Abkhazia and
    South Ossetia, but they are effectively being integrated into Russia.

    Although last year Georgia agreed to allow Russia to join the World
    Trade Organization, relationships remain tenuous. The Kremlin
    refuses to deal with President Mikheil Saakashvili, and most
    economic ties are suspended. Last month in Chicago, despite Moscow's
    opposition, NATO reaffirmed that Georgia will become a member and
    noted its "substantial contribution" - including in Afghanistan
    - to Euro-Atlantic security. Georgia's holding of free and fair
    parliamentary elections this year and presidential elections in 2013
    will influence NATO attitudes about membership.

    War over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s displaced about a
    million people and gave Armenia control of the enclave and another 9
    percent of Azerbaijan's territory. The Organization for Security and
    Cooperation in Europe seeks a mediated solution, but negotiations are
    long stalled. A fragile cease-fire is frequently violated. Russia
    arms Armenia and maintains a military base there. Azerbaijan uses
    its oil wealth for an arms buildup, and its ally Turkey has closed
    the border with Armenia for more than a decade. The Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict could suddenly become unfrozen.

    In the North Caucasus, popular alienation and militant violence are
    increasing. Two dozen Russian soldiers died in an attack three days
    before Putin's inauguration last month. Russia relies mostly on force
    and economic subsidies to quell resistance, but the strategy has not
    worked. Terrorism could be a real threat to the 2014 Winter Olympic
    games in Sochi. Moscow might again blame Azerbaijan and Georgia for
    aiding terrorists, as it did falsely in 1999 regarding Chechnya.

    How can the America and Europe lessen risks in the Caucasus?

    They should continue to stand firm for the independence of Georgia and
    against the illegal occupation of one-fifth of its territory. Moscow
    ought not to be allowed to assert control over the export of Caspian
    energy through Georgia. Europe and America should importune Georgia
    not to stir anti-Russian animosities in the North Caucasus. They ought
    to cooperate with Russia to prevent terrorist acts around the Olympics.

    America and Europe can no longer keep the Nagorno-Karabakh talks on
    the back burner. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev faces domestic
    pressures to act, but Europe and America should caution him about
    the adverse consequences, notably a broader regional war. Energy
    investment in Azerbaijan and a major new gas pipeline to Europe,
    Nabucco, could become casualties.

    O.S.C.E. members have largely stopped engaging Russia about tensions
    in the North Caucasus, but risks grow and could spill over into
    Azerbaijan and Georgia. Members should use the permanent council in
    Vienna to raise concerns and begin a dialogue.

    In her visit, Secretary Clinton should spotlight these tensions
    and offer reassurance that the West will work actively to prevent
    confrontation and conflict.

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