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U.S. EXPERTS CAST DOUBT ON OSCE MG'S ABILITY TO RESOLVE KARABAKH CONFLICT
arminfo
Wednesday, June 6, 17:59
Top US analysts on South Caucasus region have raised their deep concern
over the shaky ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan which has been
severely tested this week by some of the worst violence in years that
resulted in loss of three Armenian solders' and five Azerbaijanis'
lives, contact.az reports.
A question of "Nagorno-Karabakh: Will the Frozen Conflict Turn Hot?"
was discussed at the Washington DC-based Woodrow Wilson Center's
Kennan Institute June 5, with participation of top US analysts,
former and current diplomats, TURAN's Washington DC correspondent
reports from the event.
"Unfortunately, unlike 1990's post-war years, now we're witnessing
the pre-war situation between Azerbaijan and Armenia", emphasized
E. Wayne Merry, a veteran US diplomat (retired), currently a Senior
Fellow for Europe and Eurasia at the American Foreign Policy Council
The analyst believes that the war "not only is coming, but somehow
is positive". Minsk Group is unable to prevent it. "Mediators don't
negotiate: both sides - Azerbaijan and Armenia don't let their job
work. Now, in this case, it's time to move from mediation to forceful
arbitration", Merry stated.
A new conflict, for Merry, isn't a 1988 template - it would be faster,
more deadly, because of the military buildup. Destructive more than
expected.
The new war also would involve regional players - Turkey for
Azerbaijan, and Russia for Armenia - would be under pressure to engage
in maneuvering strategically.
"A renewed conflict would not be limited to just this region -
it would spread", he added. In the meantime, Merry believes that
Nagorno-Karabakh is "of third level interest to US, but Washington
could get drawn in if other powers come in".
"Need a big brother's heavy hand to get things going", he says arguing
that Azerbaijan won't engage in a solution without Turkish involvement.
Another panelist, Thomas de Waal from Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, wonders why would Azerbaijan and Armenia sign
an agreement without knowing the security arrangements?
"Dozens of people are killed each year, so this isn't a frozen
conflict", he said. Recent violations prove again that this conflict
is not frozen, but is "misleading and dangerous. Excuse looking the
other way. Smoldering, dormant", he added.
Many different world leaders have tried to resolve Nagorno-Karabakh
and it hasn't helped. "External forces aren't the problem", de Waal
explained. The problem is, "identity issues going a century back -
got along as neighbors but when borders are involved, Armenians and
Azerbaijanis can't get on". No one has a monopoly on suffering and
victimhood.
De Waal says presidents sometimes are "a bit more moderate than some
of the others in their country". More public diplomacy is needed.
In the meanwhile, he added, Baku is booming and has a weight in the
world: Another decade of peak oil. Gas? Maybe: Elite petro-state
creating stability: "But in 20 years when Azerbaijan is out of oil,
what will happen between the elite and normal people? It will be a
pressure point", he said.
In the meanwhile, both de Waal and Merry believe that Turkey can
normalize relations with Armenia and trigger positive stuff for
Nagorno-Karabakh, well "but Turkey needs to take the first step".
In his speech Charles King, a Professor of International Affairs
and Government at the Georgetown University, mentioned that if
there are more Azerbaijan domestic issues, Aliyev needs to mobilize
Nagorno-Karabakh to keep people down.
"International community needs to make everyone understand that
no one gains from a renewed conflict", he added. The analyst says,
this isn't a territorial problem, but an estrangement problem between
Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
Since 1992 the OSCE Minsk Group represented by co-chairs from Russia,
U.S. and France has been mediating in resolution of the conflict
unleashed by Azerbaijan in 1988. At present the peace process is
based on the Madrid Principles suggested by the OSCE MG in 2007 in
Madrid and renovated in 2009.
From: A. Papazian
arminfo
Wednesday, June 6, 17:59
Top US analysts on South Caucasus region have raised their deep concern
over the shaky ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan which has been
severely tested this week by some of the worst violence in years that
resulted in loss of three Armenian solders' and five Azerbaijanis'
lives, contact.az reports.
A question of "Nagorno-Karabakh: Will the Frozen Conflict Turn Hot?"
was discussed at the Washington DC-based Woodrow Wilson Center's
Kennan Institute June 5, with participation of top US analysts,
former and current diplomats, TURAN's Washington DC correspondent
reports from the event.
"Unfortunately, unlike 1990's post-war years, now we're witnessing
the pre-war situation between Azerbaijan and Armenia", emphasized
E. Wayne Merry, a veteran US diplomat (retired), currently a Senior
Fellow for Europe and Eurasia at the American Foreign Policy Council
The analyst believes that the war "not only is coming, but somehow
is positive". Minsk Group is unable to prevent it. "Mediators don't
negotiate: both sides - Azerbaijan and Armenia don't let their job
work. Now, in this case, it's time to move from mediation to forceful
arbitration", Merry stated.
A new conflict, for Merry, isn't a 1988 template - it would be faster,
more deadly, because of the military buildup. Destructive more than
expected.
The new war also would involve regional players - Turkey for
Azerbaijan, and Russia for Armenia - would be under pressure to engage
in maneuvering strategically.
"A renewed conflict would not be limited to just this region -
it would spread", he added. In the meantime, Merry believes that
Nagorno-Karabakh is "of third level interest to US, but Washington
could get drawn in if other powers come in".
"Need a big brother's heavy hand to get things going", he says arguing
that Azerbaijan won't engage in a solution without Turkish involvement.
Another panelist, Thomas de Waal from Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, wonders why would Azerbaijan and Armenia sign
an agreement without knowing the security arrangements?
"Dozens of people are killed each year, so this isn't a frozen
conflict", he said. Recent violations prove again that this conflict
is not frozen, but is "misleading and dangerous. Excuse looking the
other way. Smoldering, dormant", he added.
Many different world leaders have tried to resolve Nagorno-Karabakh
and it hasn't helped. "External forces aren't the problem", de Waal
explained. The problem is, "identity issues going a century back -
got along as neighbors but when borders are involved, Armenians and
Azerbaijanis can't get on". No one has a monopoly on suffering and
victimhood.
De Waal says presidents sometimes are "a bit more moderate than some
of the others in their country". More public diplomacy is needed.
In the meanwhile, he added, Baku is booming and has a weight in the
world: Another decade of peak oil. Gas? Maybe: Elite petro-state
creating stability: "But in 20 years when Azerbaijan is out of oil,
what will happen between the elite and normal people? It will be a
pressure point", he said.
In the meanwhile, both de Waal and Merry believe that Turkey can
normalize relations with Armenia and trigger positive stuff for
Nagorno-Karabakh, well "but Turkey needs to take the first step".
In his speech Charles King, a Professor of International Affairs
and Government at the Georgetown University, mentioned that if
there are more Azerbaijan domestic issues, Aliyev needs to mobilize
Nagorno-Karabakh to keep people down.
"International community needs to make everyone understand that
no one gains from a renewed conflict", he added. The analyst says,
this isn't a territorial problem, but an estrangement problem between
Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
Since 1992 the OSCE Minsk Group represented by co-chairs from Russia,
U.S. and France has been mediating in resolution of the conflict
unleashed by Azerbaijan in 1988. At present the peace process is
based on the Madrid Principles suggested by the OSCE MG in 2007 in
Madrid and renovated in 2009.
From: A. Papazian