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ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN PLAY WITH FIRE ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH BORDER
By Catherine Cheney
World Politics Review
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/12034/armenia-azerbaijan-play-with-fire-on-nagorno-karabakh-border
June 6 2012
Armenia and Azerbaijan, former Soviet republics in the South Caucasus,
have been at war for two decades over the disputed territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh, a separatist ethnic-Armenian province internationally
recognized as part of Azerbaijan but occupied since 1994 by Armenia.
Over the past week, renewed fighting has left eight soldiers dead. The
outbreak of violence along the border, which comes as U.S. Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton visits the region, underscores the difficulty
in resolving this not quite frozen conflict.
Amanda Paul, a policy analyst and expert on the South Caucasus at the
European Policy Center, talked to Trend Lines about what life is like
on the skirmish-prone front lines.
"It consists of dug out, World War I-type trenches with tens of
thousands of Azerbaijani and Armenian soldiers facing each other," she
said. "In some places, [the trenches are] only a few meters apart. It
is a very stressful and tense environment, with the simple rustle of
a tree branch setting off a round of fire."
Paul said rogue soldiers and commanders, many of them self-proclaimed
heroes "who will decide unilaterally to infiltrate the line of
contact," are to blame for some of these incidents. Others may be
calculated provocations coming from higher up in the chain of command,
even if they are denied.
"However, being stuck in the trenches, day in, day out, becomes boring
and is also very psychologically damaging," she said. "Every movement
from the opposite side of the line of contact is viewed as a possible
attack, which is why there are so many violations of the cease-fire."
While Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of
Azerbaijan and lies within its borders, the majority ethnic-Armenian
enclave is under the control of the Armenian army. Armenia took over
the territory in 1994, after six years of war that displaced 1 million
people and took 30,000 lives.
"Nagorno-Karabakh is a very emotional issue for both countries,"
Paul said. "Therefore any opportunity to saber-rattle or enter into
the other's 'space' is sometimes hard to pass up."
But the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan extends beyond
Nagorno-Karabakh, she explained. "Seven other Azerbaijani territories
are under Armenian occupation, and almost 800,000 Azerbaijanis remain
displaced as a consequence," she said. "This is something that is
recognized and condemned in four U.N. resolutions. Moreover, it is
a situation that has been going on for almost two decades."
Meanwhile, the skirmishes continue, without any mechanisms in place
to prevent the outbreak of violence or the escalation of conflict.
Paul explained that the Minsk Group, which is chaired by France,
Russia, and the U.S. under the auspices of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), spearheads efforts to
resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But the OSCE mission in the
province "consists of only a handful of people [who] can only visit
the line of contact at prearranged times."
Paul said it is essential that the international community continue
to pressure the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to work toward
reaching a negotiated settlement.
"Clearly when there is little movement in the peace talks, the number
of violations increases, which is the case right now," she said.
Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia are interested in a new war, Paul
explained, not only because it would not serve their interests,
but also because the consequences could be catastrophic for their
neighbors as well as the region as a whole. Still, she said, there
is an increasing risk of renewed conflict.
"Until now, the two sides have managed to maintain 'controlled'
violations," she said. "However, this is a very risky policy, as there
is an increasingly high chance that eventually one of these violations
will spiral out of control and we will have an accidental war."
By Catherine Cheney
World Politics Review
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/12034/armenia-azerbaijan-play-with-fire-on-nagorno-karabakh-border
June 6 2012
Armenia and Azerbaijan, former Soviet republics in the South Caucasus,
have been at war for two decades over the disputed territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh, a separatist ethnic-Armenian province internationally
recognized as part of Azerbaijan but occupied since 1994 by Armenia.
Over the past week, renewed fighting has left eight soldiers dead. The
outbreak of violence along the border, which comes as U.S. Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton visits the region, underscores the difficulty
in resolving this not quite frozen conflict.
Amanda Paul, a policy analyst and expert on the South Caucasus at the
European Policy Center, talked to Trend Lines about what life is like
on the skirmish-prone front lines.
"It consists of dug out, World War I-type trenches with tens of
thousands of Azerbaijani and Armenian soldiers facing each other," she
said. "In some places, [the trenches are] only a few meters apart. It
is a very stressful and tense environment, with the simple rustle of
a tree branch setting off a round of fire."
Paul said rogue soldiers and commanders, many of them self-proclaimed
heroes "who will decide unilaterally to infiltrate the line of
contact," are to blame for some of these incidents. Others may be
calculated provocations coming from higher up in the chain of command,
even if they are denied.
"However, being stuck in the trenches, day in, day out, becomes boring
and is also very psychologically damaging," she said. "Every movement
from the opposite side of the line of contact is viewed as a possible
attack, which is why there are so many violations of the cease-fire."
While Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of
Azerbaijan and lies within its borders, the majority ethnic-Armenian
enclave is under the control of the Armenian army. Armenia took over
the territory in 1994, after six years of war that displaced 1 million
people and took 30,000 lives.
"Nagorno-Karabakh is a very emotional issue for both countries,"
Paul said. "Therefore any opportunity to saber-rattle or enter into
the other's 'space' is sometimes hard to pass up."
But the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan extends beyond
Nagorno-Karabakh, she explained. "Seven other Azerbaijani territories
are under Armenian occupation, and almost 800,000 Azerbaijanis remain
displaced as a consequence," she said. "This is something that is
recognized and condemned in four U.N. resolutions. Moreover, it is
a situation that has been going on for almost two decades."
Meanwhile, the skirmishes continue, without any mechanisms in place
to prevent the outbreak of violence or the escalation of conflict.
Paul explained that the Minsk Group, which is chaired by France,
Russia, and the U.S. under the auspices of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), spearheads efforts to
resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But the OSCE mission in the
province "consists of only a handful of people [who] can only visit
the line of contact at prearranged times."
Paul said it is essential that the international community continue
to pressure the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to work toward
reaching a negotiated settlement.
"Clearly when there is little movement in the peace talks, the number
of violations increases, which is the case right now," she said.
Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia are interested in a new war, Paul
explained, not only because it would not serve their interests,
but also because the consequences could be catastrophic for their
neighbors as well as the region as a whole. Still, she said, there
is an increasing risk of renewed conflict.
"Until now, the two sides have managed to maintain 'controlled'
violations," she said. "However, this is a very risky policy, as there
is an increasingly high chance that eventually one of these violations
will spiral out of control and we will have an accidental war."