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ARMENIA: LOOKING FOR A BRIGHTER FUTURE
Today's Zaman
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-282963-armenia-looking-for-a-brighter-future.html
June 6 2012
Turkey
While Georgia is presently the most progressive country in the South
Caucasus, it would seem Armenia is increasingly signaling the intention
to strengthen democratic values.
This has been demonstrated by intensified efforts in terms of its
Euro-Atlantic integration processes and recent parliamentary elections
which, while far from perfect, represented a step in the right
direction. Today the political landscape is more vibrant, with active
dialogue between the leadership and opposition -- a rare occurrence
in the South Caucasus. However, the 2013 presidential elections will
be the real test for Yerevan's adherence to international standards.
In a speech by Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan during a visit to
Brussels earlier this week, he stated that Armenia is taking steps
to democratize and bring about fundamental change in the country,
including building a middle class -- not an easy task given the average
annual income is only some $3,000. Armenia remains an extremely poor
country, still shadowed by its Soviet past, including the ongoing
negative role played by oligarchs in business and politics. With two
closed borders (Turkey and Azerbaijan) as a result of its war with
Azerbaijan over the Azerbaijani province of Nagorno-Karabakh in the
early 1990s, Armenia has been left reliant on Iran and Georgia as
trade corridors. In 2008 during the Russia-Georgia war, trade through
Georgia was stopped. And while Yerevan has a special relationship
with Tehran, with international sanctions and pressure increasing
on Iran because of its nuclear program, Yerevan is increasingly in a
difficult situation. According to the prime minister, the sanctions on
Iran are challenging Armenia's potential for economic growth, which
they are unhappy about. The optimal solution remains the opening
of the Turkish-Armenian border. However, following the failure of
efforts at rapprochement in 2011, principally as a result of Turkey
linking it to progress on the Karabakh conflict, the issue has become
frozen indefinitely.
According to the prime minister, Armenia has "cautiously" chosen
a European development path and views the EU's Eastern Partnership
Policy as a vital tool for driving the reform process and closing
the gap between values and aspirations. Three Armenian parties are
now members of the European People's Party (EPP), and according to
EU officials, Armenia is making good progress in the negotiations for
an association agreement with talks on a deep and comprehensive free
trade area (DCFTA) to kick off shortly.
Steps are being taken to reduce the country's widespread corruption.
There is now an interactive state budget, all public procurement
deals are accessible online, and cabinet agendas are publicized and
broadcast. When I asked him whether Armenia had drawn on the experience
of Georgia, which has been so successful in eradicating corruption
that the World Bank wrote a book about it, he said he considers
Georgia's approach to be too "revolutionary" and not sustainable --
although there are very few facts to support this.
Armenia is aiming for a longer-term "evolutionary" approach.
Sargsyan reported that relations with the US have "never been better,"
with mutual confidence so high that there are no political issues
where agreement cannot be reached.
Yerevan continues to have very close political, economic and
security ties with Moscow, which it sees as essential for its
security. Yet Sargsyan stated this should complement its closer ties
with Euro-Atlantic structures. In 2011 Yerevan entered a free trade
agreement with the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS), and Sargsyan did not see why Armenia could not have excellent
security relations with Russia, while at the same time deepening ties
with NATO.
Lastly, Sargsyan underlined that the only way the South Caucasus could
reach its potential would be for all states to work toward a common
platform of values. He pointed the finger of blame at Azerbaijan and
Turkey, citing Turkey's negative approach to the Karabakh conflict
and backtracking on rapprochement, and Azerbaijan's hostile language
over Karabakh. However, Armenia also needs to take its share of the
blame -- first because the ongoing occupation of Azerbaijani lands
has been recognized in various international reports, including from
the European Parliament, as contributing to regional instability.
Moreover, I would argue that Armenia's close military ties with
Russia also help maintain regional instability. Russia has planned
substantial military exercises in September, taking place under
the auspices of "Caucasus-2012." These exercises are supposed
to demonstrate the preparedness of Russian troops for internal
as well as international challenges and will be held in Russia,
the occupied territories of Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia)
and Armenia. They closely resemble the maneuvers Russia held prior
to the 2008 Russian-Georgian War, threaten the security of the whole
region and are far from constructive.
Today's Zaman
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-282963-armenia-looking-for-a-brighter-future.html
June 6 2012
Turkey
While Georgia is presently the most progressive country in the South
Caucasus, it would seem Armenia is increasingly signaling the intention
to strengthen democratic values.
This has been demonstrated by intensified efforts in terms of its
Euro-Atlantic integration processes and recent parliamentary elections
which, while far from perfect, represented a step in the right
direction. Today the political landscape is more vibrant, with active
dialogue between the leadership and opposition -- a rare occurrence
in the South Caucasus. However, the 2013 presidential elections will
be the real test for Yerevan's adherence to international standards.
In a speech by Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan during a visit to
Brussels earlier this week, he stated that Armenia is taking steps
to democratize and bring about fundamental change in the country,
including building a middle class -- not an easy task given the average
annual income is only some $3,000. Armenia remains an extremely poor
country, still shadowed by its Soviet past, including the ongoing
negative role played by oligarchs in business and politics. With two
closed borders (Turkey and Azerbaijan) as a result of its war with
Azerbaijan over the Azerbaijani province of Nagorno-Karabakh in the
early 1990s, Armenia has been left reliant on Iran and Georgia as
trade corridors. In 2008 during the Russia-Georgia war, trade through
Georgia was stopped. And while Yerevan has a special relationship
with Tehran, with international sanctions and pressure increasing
on Iran because of its nuclear program, Yerevan is increasingly in a
difficult situation. According to the prime minister, the sanctions on
Iran are challenging Armenia's potential for economic growth, which
they are unhappy about. The optimal solution remains the opening
of the Turkish-Armenian border. However, following the failure of
efforts at rapprochement in 2011, principally as a result of Turkey
linking it to progress on the Karabakh conflict, the issue has become
frozen indefinitely.
According to the prime minister, Armenia has "cautiously" chosen
a European development path and views the EU's Eastern Partnership
Policy as a vital tool for driving the reform process and closing
the gap between values and aspirations. Three Armenian parties are
now members of the European People's Party (EPP), and according to
EU officials, Armenia is making good progress in the negotiations for
an association agreement with talks on a deep and comprehensive free
trade area (DCFTA) to kick off shortly.
Steps are being taken to reduce the country's widespread corruption.
There is now an interactive state budget, all public procurement
deals are accessible online, and cabinet agendas are publicized and
broadcast. When I asked him whether Armenia had drawn on the experience
of Georgia, which has been so successful in eradicating corruption
that the World Bank wrote a book about it, he said he considers
Georgia's approach to be too "revolutionary" and not sustainable --
although there are very few facts to support this.
Armenia is aiming for a longer-term "evolutionary" approach.
Sargsyan reported that relations with the US have "never been better,"
with mutual confidence so high that there are no political issues
where agreement cannot be reached.
Yerevan continues to have very close political, economic and
security ties with Moscow, which it sees as essential for its
security. Yet Sargsyan stated this should complement its closer ties
with Euro-Atlantic structures. In 2011 Yerevan entered a free trade
agreement with the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS), and Sargsyan did not see why Armenia could not have excellent
security relations with Russia, while at the same time deepening ties
with NATO.
Lastly, Sargsyan underlined that the only way the South Caucasus could
reach its potential would be for all states to work toward a common
platform of values. He pointed the finger of blame at Azerbaijan and
Turkey, citing Turkey's negative approach to the Karabakh conflict
and backtracking on rapprochement, and Azerbaijan's hostile language
over Karabakh. However, Armenia also needs to take its share of the
blame -- first because the ongoing occupation of Azerbaijani lands
has been recognized in various international reports, including from
the European Parliament, as contributing to regional instability.
Moreover, I would argue that Armenia's close military ties with
Russia also help maintain regional instability. Russia has planned
substantial military exercises in September, taking place under
the auspices of "Caucasus-2012." These exercises are supposed
to demonstrate the preparedness of Russian troops for internal
as well as international challenges and will be held in Russia,
the occupied territories of Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia)
and Armenia. They closely resemble the maneuvers Russia held prior
to the 2008 Russian-Georgian War, threaten the security of the whole
region and are far from constructive.