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EFFORTS TO REINVIGORATE TURKEY'S EU ACCESSION WON'T SUCCEED
By Naz Masraff
http://eurasia.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/05/efforts_to_reinvigorate_turkey_s_eu_accession_won_ t_succeed
TUESDAY, JUNE 5, 2012 - 1:54 PM
POSTED BY IAN BREMMER
The recent move to breathe new life into Turkey's stalled EU accession
process is unlikely to have much effect beyond providing Ankara with
a minor domestic and international public relations boost. On 17 May,
Turkey's EU minister and chief negotiator Egemen Bagis and European
Commissioner for Enlargement Stefan Fule launched what they dubbed
a positive agenda for EU-Turkish relations. The agenda introduces
new mechanisms for communication, including specific working groups,
intended to accelerate Turkey's compliance with the acquis communitaire
in eight chapters, including two that are blocked for political
reasons. But the efforts are insufficient to counter the underlying
structural problems impeding Turkey's now long-stalled EU accession.
Turkish authorities have not opened any new chapters of the EU
acquis since 2010; talks on 18 of the 34 chapters cannot move ahead
because of political issues and open ones cannot be provisionally
closed. An important obstacle continues to be Turkey's failure to
move on politically difficult reforms needed to bring the country's
laws in line with European standards, especially on the judiciary
and fundamental rights. Bagis's statements suggesting that Turkey
would be in full compliance with the EU acquis by 2014 are largely
political rhetoric with little substance.
Cyprus is a huge stumbling block. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
has decided not to call a follow-up international conference on
Cyprus because there has been no advance since the January talks on
the issue. This makes it impossible for the conflict to be resolved
before July, when the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) government assumes the
EU presidency. Turkey will freeze its relations with the EU presidency
for six months in protest, though contacts with the European Commission
and the European Parliament will continue.
The RoC's exploration for hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean
has exacerbated its contentious relations with Turkey. Turkey claims
some areas included in the RoC's new licensing round for further
explorations extend onto Turkey's continental shelf, and that
any revenues must be shared with the Turkish Republic of Northern
Cyprus (TRNC). While the dispute is not likely to escalate into a
military conflict, Turkey may continue its gunboat diplomacy, further
intensifying tensions. Turkey is now also considering fallback options
including pressing other Muslim states to recognize the TRNC.
The new agenda may not result in major advances on EU accession,
but it will give the Turkish government some advantages. Ankara
can secure public recognition from the EU and boost its domestic
popularity even when minor steps are taken. The effort also has
bureaucratic advantages, providing another way for both the Turkish
Ministry for EU Affairs and the European Commission's Turkey desk, the
largest desk operating under the Directorate-General for Enlargement,
to justify their existence.
Naz Masraff is an associate with Eurasia Group's Europe Practice.
By Naz Masraff
http://eurasia.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/05/efforts_to_reinvigorate_turkey_s_eu_accession_won_ t_succeed
TUESDAY, JUNE 5, 2012 - 1:54 PM
POSTED BY IAN BREMMER
The recent move to breathe new life into Turkey's stalled EU accession
process is unlikely to have much effect beyond providing Ankara with
a minor domestic and international public relations boost. On 17 May,
Turkey's EU minister and chief negotiator Egemen Bagis and European
Commissioner for Enlargement Stefan Fule launched what they dubbed
a positive agenda for EU-Turkish relations. The agenda introduces
new mechanisms for communication, including specific working groups,
intended to accelerate Turkey's compliance with the acquis communitaire
in eight chapters, including two that are blocked for political
reasons. But the efforts are insufficient to counter the underlying
structural problems impeding Turkey's now long-stalled EU accession.
Turkish authorities have not opened any new chapters of the EU
acquis since 2010; talks on 18 of the 34 chapters cannot move ahead
because of political issues and open ones cannot be provisionally
closed. An important obstacle continues to be Turkey's failure to
move on politically difficult reforms needed to bring the country's
laws in line with European standards, especially on the judiciary
and fundamental rights. Bagis's statements suggesting that Turkey
would be in full compliance with the EU acquis by 2014 are largely
political rhetoric with little substance.
Cyprus is a huge stumbling block. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
has decided not to call a follow-up international conference on
Cyprus because there has been no advance since the January talks on
the issue. This makes it impossible for the conflict to be resolved
before July, when the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) government assumes the
EU presidency. Turkey will freeze its relations with the EU presidency
for six months in protest, though contacts with the European Commission
and the European Parliament will continue.
The RoC's exploration for hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean
has exacerbated its contentious relations with Turkey. Turkey claims
some areas included in the RoC's new licensing round for further
explorations extend onto Turkey's continental shelf, and that
any revenues must be shared with the Turkish Republic of Northern
Cyprus (TRNC). While the dispute is not likely to escalate into a
military conflict, Turkey may continue its gunboat diplomacy, further
intensifying tensions. Turkey is now also considering fallback options
including pressing other Muslim states to recognize the TRNC.
The new agenda may not result in major advances on EU accession,
but it will give the Turkish government some advantages. Ankara
can secure public recognition from the EU and boost its domestic
popularity even when minor steps are taken. The effort also has
bureaucratic advantages, providing another way for both the Turkish
Ministry for EU Affairs and the European Commission's Turkey desk, the
largest desk operating under the Directorate-General for Enlargement,
to justify their existence.
Naz Masraff is an associate with Eurasia Group's Europe Practice.