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IF SERZH SARGSYAN DOESN'T DESTROY OLIGARCHS
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/country26553.html
Published: 13:50:20 - 14/06/2012
In the first quarter of 2012, direct foreign investments in Georgia
increased by 60-65% compared with the same period last year, reaching
USD 270 million, said the Georgian Prime Minister Nika Gilauri. The
premier also said that direct investments help create jobs.
In the meantime, the World Bank, in its "Global Economic Prospects"
report predicts a 4.1% economic growth in Armenia in 2012 which is 0.2%
less than the bank's forecast of January. The forecast for Georgia
of the WB has increased by one percent reaching 6%.
Why has the World Bank decreased the forecasts for Armenia? And
why don't Armenia and Georgia, which live next to each other in
the same region, having so similar post-soviet history, develop
unidirectionally?
The answer is evident. Georgia refused quoted monopolies and opened
its market to direct investments having created favorable conditions.
Georgia's leadership was not scared of "the resistance of the
oligarchs" and first of all because it was "clear" itself.
In Armenia no investments are actually made. Moreover, even ethnic
Armenians, living abroad, affirm that doing business in Armenia
is difficult. Taxes are high and the administration is tough, not
counting the shadow deals.
The government of Armenia will introduce on these days its program
to be confirmed by the National Assembly. And if, it does not mark
as a priority fundamental changes in the condition for investments,
it means that nothing will change in Armenia.
For now, the steps of the government have been aimed at fulfilling or
imitating liberal reforms without touching the oligopolistic structure
of the Armenian economy. However, it is time when they will need to
choose - either to "offend" the oligarchs or to acknowledge that the
authorities are unable to overcome their resistance. Imitation is
no longer possible at least because the moment of signing the Free
Trade Agreement with the EU and other documents is coming closer,
so sharp moves are necessary.
Perhaps, such measures will be taken by the premier Tigran Sargsyan
after the formation of the government and the confirmation of its
program. However, most likely, he will refrain from drastic changes
until the presidential elections in order not o deprive Serzh Sargsyan
of the oligarchic support.
After the presidential elections, Serzh Sargsyan will have to choose
either to eliminate the oligarchy and open the market or to be
destroyed by the oligarchy.
But the most paradoxical is that the oligarchs understand it, who know
that after the presidential election, Serzh Sargsyan will receive
a carte blanche for the abolition of monopolies. So now many are
hesitating whether to stay in Sargsyan's team or to flop to another
camp, where they will have guarantees. True, "the source of security"
itself needs to be supported too.
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/country26553.html
Published: 13:50:20 - 14/06/2012
In the first quarter of 2012, direct foreign investments in Georgia
increased by 60-65% compared with the same period last year, reaching
USD 270 million, said the Georgian Prime Minister Nika Gilauri. The
premier also said that direct investments help create jobs.
In the meantime, the World Bank, in its "Global Economic Prospects"
report predicts a 4.1% economic growth in Armenia in 2012 which is 0.2%
less than the bank's forecast of January. The forecast for Georgia
of the WB has increased by one percent reaching 6%.
Why has the World Bank decreased the forecasts for Armenia? And
why don't Armenia and Georgia, which live next to each other in
the same region, having so similar post-soviet history, develop
unidirectionally?
The answer is evident. Georgia refused quoted monopolies and opened
its market to direct investments having created favorable conditions.
Georgia's leadership was not scared of "the resistance of the
oligarchs" and first of all because it was "clear" itself.
In Armenia no investments are actually made. Moreover, even ethnic
Armenians, living abroad, affirm that doing business in Armenia
is difficult. Taxes are high and the administration is tough, not
counting the shadow deals.
The government of Armenia will introduce on these days its program
to be confirmed by the National Assembly. And if, it does not mark
as a priority fundamental changes in the condition for investments,
it means that nothing will change in Armenia.
For now, the steps of the government have been aimed at fulfilling or
imitating liberal reforms without touching the oligopolistic structure
of the Armenian economy. However, it is time when they will need to
choose - either to "offend" the oligarchs or to acknowledge that the
authorities are unable to overcome their resistance. Imitation is
no longer possible at least because the moment of signing the Free
Trade Agreement with the EU and other documents is coming closer,
so sharp moves are necessary.
Perhaps, such measures will be taken by the premier Tigran Sargsyan
after the formation of the government and the confirmation of its
program. However, most likely, he will refrain from drastic changes
until the presidential elections in order not o deprive Serzh Sargsyan
of the oligarchic support.
After the presidential elections, Serzh Sargsyan will have to choose
either to eliminate the oligarchy and open the market or to be
destroyed by the oligarchy.
But the most paradoxical is that the oligarchs understand it, who know
that after the presidential election, Serzh Sargsyan will receive
a carte blanche for the abolition of monopolies. So now many are
hesitating whether to stay in Sargsyan's team or to flop to another
camp, where they will have guarantees. True, "the source of security"
itself needs to be supported too.