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It Started Smelling Gunpowder in Nagorno Karabakh

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  • It Started Smelling Gunpowder in Nagorno Karabakh

    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    June 13, 2012 Wednesday


    IT STARTED SMELLING GUNPOWDER IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH

    Russia prefers not to interfere into the confrontation between Armenia
    and Azerbaijan

    by Yury Roks
    Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, June 08, 2012, p. 1
    [translated from Russian]

    TENSION BETWEEN BAKU AND YEREVAN REACHED AN UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL FOR
    THE LAST FEW YEARS; Several subversion acts were stopped in the
    Armenian regions bordering Azerbaijan this week alone. After that
    clashes happened on the contact line in unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh.
    There were killed and injured people on both sides. The US, France and
    Turkey expressed their concern about the events. Russia, strategic
    ally of Armenia and simultaneously a partner of Azerbaijan, was the
    last to react.

    Several subversion acts were stopped in the Armenian regions bordering
    Azerbaijan this week alone. After that clashes happened on the contact
    line in unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh. There were killed and injured
    people on both sides. The US, France and Turkey expressed their
    concern about the events. Russia, strategic ally of Armenia and
    simultaneously a partner of Azerbaijan, was the last to react.

    Washington, Ankara and Paris called on the parties to stop escalation
    of tension almost simultaneously. Armenia accused the Azerbaijani
    party of what was going on in a harsh form.

    Azerbaijan responded with a counter accusation, afterwards it
    characterized the events as consequences of lack of control in the
    Armenian armed forces and the General Staff finally announced, "Ten
    days are sufficient for our country to liberate the occupied
    territories and to reach the state borders of Iran and Armenia. The
    only reason that stops us is that we do not wish bloodshed and victims
    anymore." Armenian mass media quoting this statement actively called
    it an irrefutable evidence of aggressive plans of the neighboring
    country.

    Head of the information department of the President of
    Nagorno-Karabakh David Babayan said, "Azerbaijan may try to distort
    the facts in any way but they are obvious: subversions are stopped on
    the Armenian land. Baku may release any kinds of belligerent
    statements but it is impossible to intimidate us. We are always
    prepared to resist." According to Babayan, the actions taken by the
    Azerbaijani party devaluate the already difficult negotiation process
    and also make the statements of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
    released during a visit to the region that new approaches would be
    offered to the parties for resolving of the conflict unimportant."

    Babayan said, "After a series of provocations on the part of
    Azerbaijan we have a right to expect that the US Department of State
    will make corrections to its strategy for resolving of the conflict.
    Azerbaijan regularly breaches the ceasefire regime and kills Armenian
    soldiers but is simultaneously a temporary member of the UN Security
    Council. This is absurd. The US should provide a more realistic
    evaluation of the situation and change its position about this issue,
    which will probably happen."

    Snor Asatryan, press secretary of the Defense Ministry of
    Nagorno-Karabakh, said that the Azerbaijani party breached the
    ceasefire regime more than 5,000 times on the contact line of the
    armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan between January and
    June of 2012. He said, "In June alone, the Azerbaijani party performed
    six reconnaissance subversion actions in which it lost 20 servicemen."

    These terrible statistical data are confirmed by the center of
    research of military journalists of Azerbaijan. According to data of
    the organization to which some news agencies referred, between January
    and June of 2012 the armed forces of Azerbaijan lost 52 people killed.
    The Armenian party also has losses, although smaller ones. This year
    alone, not less than eight people died during the clashes.

    At a representative conference in Washington-based center of Woodrow
    Wilson the leading conflict experts of the West specializing in the
    South Caucasus drew a conclusion that the international community
    needs to interfere urgently to prevent a full-scale conflict probably
    even before the meeting of the foreign ministers of Armenia and
    Azerbaijan to be held in Paris on June 18.

    Sabine Fraser, director of the European program of the international
    crisis group, said, "There is a real danger that the conflict will go
    out of control and the parties will start taking revenge on each other
    for each loss. As soon as this happens it will be very difficult for
    them to retreat or to win a war quickly."

    Alarming opinions were also sounded in Yerevan. An opinion about a
    need for interference of the CSTO forces into the growing conflict was
    even expressed on the expert level because several subversion acts of
    Azerbaijan took place not in Nagorno-Karabakh but in Armenia being a
    member of the CSTO and having a right to count on assistance according
    to this doctrine. In any case, the quantity of supporters of this idea
    is very small yet.

    Babayan said, "Insertion of troops of the third party into the
    conflict zone is not that simple. Agreement of all parties of the
    conflict and participants of negotiations is necessary, it is
    necessary to sign the relevant agreements, to settle a lot of nuances
    etc. the Azerbaijani-Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is unique because it is
    the only conflict in the world in which there is no one between the
    armed forces of the parties. This remains a good indicator of the
    potential for peaceful coexistence of the two nations still but for
    the regular firing exchange."

    Well-known Armenian political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan commented
    on the situation and expressed his hope that "there will be no
    Armenian-Azerbaijani war." Iskandaryan said, "The incidents are aimed
    at the internal political life of Azerbaijan and the visit of the US
    Secretary of State. Azerbaijan organizes propaganda actions and simply
    fails. But I am afraid that it will be difficult to stop them."

    The authorities of Armenia comment on the events in a harsher way.
    President Serzh Sargsian being on an official visit to Japan
    announced, "Either the provocations were organized according to an
    order of the authorities of Azerbaijan and in this case they bore
    personal responsibility for breaching of the truce, and international
    obligation undertake by Azerbaijan or the armed forces of this country
    were outside of control of the command and in this case we should be
    ready to deal with separate field commanders and not with an organized
    army." According to him, it is sad that the provocations coincide with
    the events organized by Russia and aimed at strengthening of
    confidence (a meeting of representatives of intelligentsia of Armenia
    and Azerbaijan took place in Moscow) and the State Secretary of the US
    - co-chair of the Minsk OSCE group, patron of the negotiation process,
    has been in the region.

    A long absence of a public reaction of Moscow declaring the South
    Caucasus a traditional zone of its geopolitical interests was
    surprising against the background of the highest tension between
    Yerevan and Baku and calls of the US, France, Turkey and OSCE for
    peace. Only in the second half of Thursday official spokesperson for
    the Russian Foreign Ministry Alexander Lukashevich expressed a hope
    that meeting of the foreign ministers of the two countries in Paris
    would relieve the tension and the parties would manifest reservation.

    [translated from Russian]

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