Tweet
Mediamax, Armenia
June 14 2012
Oxford Analytica: Mediators can exert pressure on both sides in Paris
Yerevan/Mediamax/. The Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers will
meet in Paris on June 18. OSCE Minsk Group French, Russian and US
Co-Chairs are widely expected to exert pressure on both sides to
de-escalate tensions.
This is the forecast of Oxford Analytica British Research Center,
Mediamax reports.
Oxford Analytica says that Azerbaijan is following a new military
strategy based on a build-up of procurement and preparations for
attaining operational readiness by 2014, threatening to go to war by
the 20th anniversary of the ceasefire if there is no progress in the
Karabakh peace process.
`Bolstered by a steady build-up in weapons and spending, the
Azerbaijani General Staff recently warned it would take just ten days
to liberate the occupied territories and reach the Iranian-Armenian
border. However, despite such rhetoric, the Azerbaijani armed forces
remain unready for a new war, while the Armenian side poses no
offensive threat and simply seeks to secure its earlier gains.
Nevertheless, Azerbaijan seems unwilling to climb down from its
threats, underestimating the potentially destabilizing impact of
domestic disappointment with unfulfilled promises and expectations of
military victory,' the research says.
Oxford Analytica reminds that Azerbaijan's attacks coincided with a
regional tour by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and seriously
disrupted its agenda.
According to Oxford Analytica, reflecting recognition of the new scale
of risk, there is now a new sense of diplomatic urgency. Yet under the
current OSCE mediation format, such urgency will be difficult to
sustain, and nearly impossible to succeed. One of the reasons is
Russia's stance, whose interests are better served by either the
status quo or an expansion of tension.
June 14 2012
Oxford Analytica: Mediators can exert pressure on both sides in Paris
Yerevan/Mediamax/. The Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers will
meet in Paris on June 18. OSCE Minsk Group French, Russian and US
Co-Chairs are widely expected to exert pressure on both sides to
de-escalate tensions.
This is the forecast of Oxford Analytica British Research Center,
Mediamax reports.
Oxford Analytica says that Azerbaijan is following a new military
strategy based on a build-up of procurement and preparations for
attaining operational readiness by 2014, threatening to go to war by
the 20th anniversary of the ceasefire if there is no progress in the
Karabakh peace process.
`Bolstered by a steady build-up in weapons and spending, the
Azerbaijani General Staff recently warned it would take just ten days
to liberate the occupied territories and reach the Iranian-Armenian
border. However, despite such rhetoric, the Azerbaijani armed forces
remain unready for a new war, while the Armenian side poses no
offensive threat and simply seeks to secure its earlier gains.
Nevertheless, Azerbaijan seems unwilling to climb down from its
threats, underestimating the potentially destabilizing impact of
domestic disappointment with unfulfilled promises and expectations of
military victory,' the research says.
Oxford Analytica reminds that Azerbaijan's attacks coincided with a
regional tour by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and seriously
disrupted its agenda.
According to Oxford Analytica, reflecting recognition of the new scale
of risk, there is now a new sense of diplomatic urgency. Yet under the
current OSCE mediation format, such urgency will be difficult to
sustain, and nearly impossible to succeed. One of the reasons is
Russia's stance, whose interests are better served by either the
status quo or an expansion of tension.