Tweet
Eurasia Review
June 16 2012
Nagorno-Karabakh: The Trigger Of World War III? - Analysis
by Window On Heartland
On February 23, 2012, the controversial leader of Russia's Liberal
Democratic Party Vladimir Zhirinovsky predicted the possible outbreak
of World War III this summer. According to the former Russian army
colonel, as soon as Syria is annihilated, a blow will be struck
against Iran. At that point, `Azerbaijan might take advantage of that
state to re-seize Nagorno-Karabakh. The Republic of Armenia will act
in opposition to it, while Turkey will support Azerbaijan. That's how
we'll in summer be caught in a war,' Zhirinovsky explained.
Although the Russian politician is not new to this kind of
interventions, the risk that the Caucasus might indeed be the trigger
of a new world war is all but unlikely. Earlier this year,
Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev said Baku is buying up modern
weaponry to be able to regain control of the breakaway
Nagorno-Karabakh region quickly and with few losses should peace talks
with neighbouring Armenia fail. Negotiations to end the conflict have
been held under the auspices of the so-called Minsk Group since 1992,
but so far results have been inconclusive.
The borders of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast
Azerbaijan is a natural ally of Turkey and an adversary of Iran. NATO
partner since 1994 through its participation to the Alliance's
Partnership for Peace program, Baku is also one of the most
geo-strategically important allies of the West in the pipelines war
against Russia, being both a supporter and a potential supplier of the
Washington-backed Nabucco gas pipeline project. On the other side,
Armenia is a close ally of Russia and Iran, both interested in
countering Turkish and US influence over the Caspian region.
Given this geopolitical context, to which are added NATO-Russia
tensions over US missile defense plans in Europe and
Azerbaijani-Russian disagreements over the renewal of the Gabala radar
station lease, a spike in violence in the Caucasus might indeed
trigger a major conflict between a US-led coalition consisting of
Azerbaijan, Turkey and Israel on one side, and a Sino-Russian bloc
including Armenia and Iran on the other side. Nevertheless, although
five of the eight countries involved are de facto nuclear powers, a
World War III between them would not necessarily imply the use of
nuclear weapons.
In fact, a conflict originating from tensions in the Caucasus-Caspian
region would be local in scope, but global in extent and consequences,
being thus able to be considered a world war. Such a confrontation
would have some of the characteristics of the Cold War, being the
result of at least three proxy conflicts (Azerbaijan against Armenia,
Iran against Azerbaijan, Turkey against Iran); nevertheless, given the
nuclear potential of the countries diplomatically involved, it could
not last more than a few days, being decided by both compellence and
deterrence strategies fielded by the United States, Russia and China.
According to the New York Times, Russian fighter jets stationed in
Armenia have conducted about 300 training flights since the beginning
of 2012, increasing the number of flying hours by more than 20 percent
from last year. Although Kirill Kiselev, an officer of the press
service in the Southern Military District in Gyumri, assured the
`Intensification of flights of Russian air-unit of N102 military base
has been recorded in the framework of combat training program,' such a
hyperactivity of Russian air forces might be a warning that Moscow
could intervene at any moment should a war break out.
Nevertheless, only strong Chinese support can allow Russia to
successfully continue its deterrence strategy aimed at avoiding
US-sponsored military interventions both in the Caucasus
(Nagorno-Karabakh) and the Middle East (Syria and Iran). Strong of its
3 million soldiers, who make the People's Liberation Army the world's
largest military force, China would in fact be able to wage any kind
of conflict with an overwhelming conventional superiority. Should
Beijing gain access to military facilities in countries such as
Kazakhstan and Pakistan, a Western attack on Tehran and its allies
would therefore become an extremely remote possibility. In that case,
the setback suffered by the US-Israel axis of having to de facto
accept Iran's nuclearization would already be, in itself, a victory
for the Sino-Russian bloc, as well a practical realization of what Sun
Tzu considered as the `apex of strategy:' to win a fight without
fighting.
Window On Heartland
Window on Heartland is a geopolitical blog focused on security and
strategic issues in the post-Soviet space. Launched in November 2010,
Window on Heartland aims to provide new perspectives on the
geopolitics of the region, taking into account the complex historical,
cultural and ethnic background of the peoples living within the
borders of the former Soviet empire. Window on Heartland has been
created and is managed by Giovanni Daniele Valvo, an independent
political analyst specializing in Russian and East European affairs.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/16062012-nagorno-karabakh-the-trigger-of-world-war-iii-analysis/
June 16 2012
Nagorno-Karabakh: The Trigger Of World War III? - Analysis
by Window On Heartland
On February 23, 2012, the controversial leader of Russia's Liberal
Democratic Party Vladimir Zhirinovsky predicted the possible outbreak
of World War III this summer. According to the former Russian army
colonel, as soon as Syria is annihilated, a blow will be struck
against Iran. At that point, `Azerbaijan might take advantage of that
state to re-seize Nagorno-Karabakh. The Republic of Armenia will act
in opposition to it, while Turkey will support Azerbaijan. That's how
we'll in summer be caught in a war,' Zhirinovsky explained.
Although the Russian politician is not new to this kind of
interventions, the risk that the Caucasus might indeed be the trigger
of a new world war is all but unlikely. Earlier this year,
Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev said Baku is buying up modern
weaponry to be able to regain control of the breakaway
Nagorno-Karabakh region quickly and with few losses should peace talks
with neighbouring Armenia fail. Negotiations to end the conflict have
been held under the auspices of the so-called Minsk Group since 1992,
but so far results have been inconclusive.
The borders of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast
Azerbaijan is a natural ally of Turkey and an adversary of Iran. NATO
partner since 1994 through its participation to the Alliance's
Partnership for Peace program, Baku is also one of the most
geo-strategically important allies of the West in the pipelines war
against Russia, being both a supporter and a potential supplier of the
Washington-backed Nabucco gas pipeline project. On the other side,
Armenia is a close ally of Russia and Iran, both interested in
countering Turkish and US influence over the Caspian region.
Given this geopolitical context, to which are added NATO-Russia
tensions over US missile defense plans in Europe and
Azerbaijani-Russian disagreements over the renewal of the Gabala radar
station lease, a spike in violence in the Caucasus might indeed
trigger a major conflict between a US-led coalition consisting of
Azerbaijan, Turkey and Israel on one side, and a Sino-Russian bloc
including Armenia and Iran on the other side. Nevertheless, although
five of the eight countries involved are de facto nuclear powers, a
World War III between them would not necessarily imply the use of
nuclear weapons.
In fact, a conflict originating from tensions in the Caucasus-Caspian
region would be local in scope, but global in extent and consequences,
being thus able to be considered a world war. Such a confrontation
would have some of the characteristics of the Cold War, being the
result of at least three proxy conflicts (Azerbaijan against Armenia,
Iran against Azerbaijan, Turkey against Iran); nevertheless, given the
nuclear potential of the countries diplomatically involved, it could
not last more than a few days, being decided by both compellence and
deterrence strategies fielded by the United States, Russia and China.
According to the New York Times, Russian fighter jets stationed in
Armenia have conducted about 300 training flights since the beginning
of 2012, increasing the number of flying hours by more than 20 percent
from last year. Although Kirill Kiselev, an officer of the press
service in the Southern Military District in Gyumri, assured the
`Intensification of flights of Russian air-unit of N102 military base
has been recorded in the framework of combat training program,' such a
hyperactivity of Russian air forces might be a warning that Moscow
could intervene at any moment should a war break out.
Nevertheless, only strong Chinese support can allow Russia to
successfully continue its deterrence strategy aimed at avoiding
US-sponsored military interventions both in the Caucasus
(Nagorno-Karabakh) and the Middle East (Syria and Iran). Strong of its
3 million soldiers, who make the People's Liberation Army the world's
largest military force, China would in fact be able to wage any kind
of conflict with an overwhelming conventional superiority. Should
Beijing gain access to military facilities in countries such as
Kazakhstan and Pakistan, a Western attack on Tehran and its allies
would therefore become an extremely remote possibility. In that case,
the setback suffered by the US-Israel axis of having to de facto
accept Iran's nuclearization would already be, in itself, a victory
for the Sino-Russian bloc, as well a practical realization of what Sun
Tzu considered as the `apex of strategy:' to win a fight without
fighting.
Window On Heartland
Window on Heartland is a geopolitical blog focused on security and
strategic issues in the post-Soviet space. Launched in November 2010,
Window on Heartland aims to provide new perspectives on the
geopolitics of the region, taking into account the complex historical,
cultural and ethnic background of the peoples living within the
borders of the former Soviet empire. Window on Heartland has been
created and is managed by Giovanni Daniele Valvo, an independent
political analyst specializing in Russian and East European affairs.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/16062012-nagorno-karabakh-the-trigger-of-world-war-iii-analysis/