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Oxford Analitica: Azerbaijan is preparing for war in Karabakh in 2014
ARMINFO
Saturday, June 16, 13:29
The British research center Oxford Analitica predicts that at the
upcoming meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and
Azerbaijan on June 18, the OSCE Minsk Group will put pressure on the
parties to reduce tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
"The Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers meet in Paris on June
18. French, Russian and US mediators from the Organisation for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group are widely
expected to exert pressure on both sides to de-escalate tensions.
Generally viewed as a 'frozen' conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh has been
quite 'hot', with a steady cycle of clashes leaving dead on both
sides. Against the backdrop of an already fragile balance of power and
an escalating 'arms race', recent Azerbaijani attacks threaten to
trigger a new outbreak of hostilities or outright war," the Oxform
Analitica expert say.
The British experts believe that Azerbaijan has recently adhered to a
new strategy: increasing the volume of purchases of arms, preparing to
achieve operational readiness in 2014, and threatening to go to war on
the 20th anniversary of the signing of the ceasefire, if no progress
is made through negotiations by then.
Encouraged by the steady growth of the military budget, the General
Staff of Azerbaijani Armed Forces has recently issued a statement that
"it will take 10 days to liberate the occupied territory and reach the
Armenian-Iranian border." In fact, the Azerbaijani army is not ready
for a new war, and the Armenian side does not intend to attack, say
experts from the research center.
The report also says that organization of military clashes on the
border between Azerbaijan and Armenia and in the Karabakh conflict
zone on 4-8 June coincided with the visit of U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton to the region.
"In terms of maintaining the current format of OSCE Minsk Group, it
will be very difficult to achieve real success in the negotiations.
One of the reasons is Russia's position, because Russia is more
interested in preserving the status quo or increasing the tensions,"
the report of Oxford Analitica says.
To recall, Edward Nalbandian, Elmar Mammadyarov and OSCE MG co-chairs
will meet in Paris on June 18.
ARMINFO
Saturday, June 16, 13:29
The British research center Oxford Analitica predicts that at the
upcoming meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and
Azerbaijan on June 18, the OSCE Minsk Group will put pressure on the
parties to reduce tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
"The Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers meet in Paris on June
18. French, Russian and US mediators from the Organisation for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group are widely
expected to exert pressure on both sides to de-escalate tensions.
Generally viewed as a 'frozen' conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh has been
quite 'hot', with a steady cycle of clashes leaving dead on both
sides. Against the backdrop of an already fragile balance of power and
an escalating 'arms race', recent Azerbaijani attacks threaten to
trigger a new outbreak of hostilities or outright war," the Oxform
Analitica expert say.
The British experts believe that Azerbaijan has recently adhered to a
new strategy: increasing the volume of purchases of arms, preparing to
achieve operational readiness in 2014, and threatening to go to war on
the 20th anniversary of the signing of the ceasefire, if no progress
is made through negotiations by then.
Encouraged by the steady growth of the military budget, the General
Staff of Azerbaijani Armed Forces has recently issued a statement that
"it will take 10 days to liberate the occupied territory and reach the
Armenian-Iranian border." In fact, the Azerbaijani army is not ready
for a new war, and the Armenian side does not intend to attack, say
experts from the research center.
The report also says that organization of military clashes on the
border between Azerbaijan and Armenia and in the Karabakh conflict
zone on 4-8 June coincided with the visit of U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton to the region.
"In terms of maintaining the current format of OSCE Minsk Group, it
will be very difficult to achieve real success in the negotiations.
One of the reasons is Russia's position, because Russia is more
interested in preserving the status quo or increasing the tensions,"
the report of Oxford Analitica says.
To recall, Edward Nalbandian, Elmar Mammadyarov and OSCE MG co-chairs
will meet in Paris on June 18.