Tweet
CHATHAM HOUSE: WANING RUSSIAN INFLUENCE ON SOUTH CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
news.am
June 20, 2012 | 00:32
Armenian News-NEWS.am presents an extract from the Long Goodbye:
Waning Russian Influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia by
the British Chatham House expert James Nixey.
The South Caucasus, with its potential interstate conflict, presents a
complex arena for Russian power. The levers of Russian influence indeed
vary, including economic and military influence in Armenia, hardly
present in Azerbaijan, and essentially related to negative publicity
as well as economics in Georgia. Russia's influence in Armenia is so
great that lack of sovereignty should really concern Armenia.
Russia's support of Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process
has been based on several factors, including limiting Turkish
influence, countering a Russophobic Azerbaijan in the early years of
independence, and long-standing cultural ties reflected in the large
Armenian diaspora in Russia. Russia approaches its mediation over
Nagorno-Karabakh as far as its influence matters and is not really
interested in a settlement. This is testified by Russian objections
to an international peacekeeping force and to changes in the Minsk
Group parties.
In case of wide range resumption of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
it would jeopardize Russia's position in Azerbaijan and Turkey,
in particular if the Armenians required military assistance. At
the same time, Russia granted Armenia a preferential loan in 2010
amounting $500 million to be paid off during 15 years, assisting to
resist the financial crisis. The extent to which Russia has acquired
actual political gains from energy and infrastructure ownership brings
forth debates within Armenia.
Nevertheless, Russia still retains a more multi-dimensional presence
in the South Caucasus and Central Asia than any other country, and
this may be its greatest asset in the more complex international order.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
news.am
June 20, 2012 | 00:32
Armenian News-NEWS.am presents an extract from the Long Goodbye:
Waning Russian Influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia by
the British Chatham House expert James Nixey.
The South Caucasus, with its potential interstate conflict, presents a
complex arena for Russian power. The levers of Russian influence indeed
vary, including economic and military influence in Armenia, hardly
present in Azerbaijan, and essentially related to negative publicity
as well as economics in Georgia. Russia's influence in Armenia is so
great that lack of sovereignty should really concern Armenia.
Russia's support of Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process
has been based on several factors, including limiting Turkish
influence, countering a Russophobic Azerbaijan in the early years of
independence, and long-standing cultural ties reflected in the large
Armenian diaspora in Russia. Russia approaches its mediation over
Nagorno-Karabakh as far as its influence matters and is not really
interested in a settlement. This is testified by Russian objections
to an international peacekeeping force and to changes in the Minsk
Group parties.
In case of wide range resumption of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
it would jeopardize Russia's position in Azerbaijan and Turkey,
in particular if the Armenians required military assistance. At
the same time, Russia granted Armenia a preferential loan in 2010
amounting $500 million to be paid off during 15 years, assisting to
resist the financial crisis. The extent to which Russia has acquired
actual political gains from energy and infrastructure ownership brings
forth debates within Armenia.
Nevertheless, Russia still retains a more multi-dimensional presence
in the South Caucasus and Central Asia than any other country, and
this may be its greatest asset in the more complex international order.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress