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BY THE TIME OF SERZH SARGSYAN'S ELECTION MUCH OF ARMENIA WAS ALREADY SOLD - CHATHAM HOUSE
tert.am
21.06.12
Home of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House
has published its 2012 report - The Long Goodbye: Waning Russian
Influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
In his report, the author, James Nixey, states that Russian influence
in the independent states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia
is weakening; the drift is inexorable but Russia employs multiple
instruments to counter this. "In the South Caucasus, Armenia has
already succumbed to Russia economically, with ramifications for
its sovereignty. But Azerbaijan and Georgia, via different paths,
have moved away from Russia's embrace," the report states.
"The levers of Russian influence here vary. They are economic and
military in Armenia, scarcely present in Azerbaijan, and essentially
related to negative publicity as well as economics with regard
to Georgia. Russian influence in Armenia is so great that lack of
sovereignty should be Armenia's number one concern," the author says.
According to the report, Russian influence in South Ossetia and
Abkhazia has increased. The costs and problems associated with these
dependencies suggest to some that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are
millstones around Russia's neck. However, the Rs7.7 billion ($250
million) Russia spends on them each year is a trivial sum.
Referring to Nagorno Karabakh, the report says Russia's support of
Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute has been based on several
interests: limiting Turkish influence, countering a Russophobic
Azerbaijan in the early years of independence, and long-standing
cultural ties reflected in the large Armenian diaspora in Russia.
"Russia's positioning has given it a powerful lever of influence
over Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as external parties. However,
its backing of Armenia's stance has changed in recent years: during
his presidency, Medvedev invested more effort in mediation than his
predecessors and the Azerbaijani first family has strong interests
in Russia," the report continues.
The author writes that a full-blown renewal of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict would jeopardize Russia's position in Azerbaijan and Turkey,
particularly if the Armenians required military assistance.
Pipeline security would also be affected, and Russia prioritizes
energy security and financial profit over conflict manipulation.
"In 2003, the CEO of United Energy Systems (UES), Anatoliy Chubais,
outlined plans to integrate the South Caucasus into a Russia-led
energy-supply network through ten former Soviet republics, as well
as plans to ensure electricity outflows from Armenia to Turkey and
Azerbaijan. Chubais denied that UES sought political gains but he has
been a leading proponent of the concept of a Eurasian 'liberal empire'
and his actions gave Russia almost total control of Armenia's energy
market. It was Robert Kocharian, Armenia's president from 1998 to
2008, who effectively sold off Armenia to Chubais and other Russian
commercial and political interests.
Through Gazprom's ownership of its Armenian subsidiary, ArmRosGazprom,
80% of Armenia's energy structure is Russian-controlled, including
the majority of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline, thus ensuring that
Armenia cannot become an independent transit country should Iranian
gas ever reach European markets.
Russia has also bought up all but two of Armenia's hydroelectric and
nuclear power stations, in exchange for writing off Armenian debt.
The extent to which Russia has acquired concrete political gains from
energy and infrastructure ownership is a source of debate within
Armenia. Kocharian's successor, Serzh Sargsyan, is ostensibly less
pro-Russian but by the time of his election in 2008 much of his
country had already been sold," the report states.
According to it, in the non-energy commercial sectors, the
Russian airline Sibir owns 70% of the Armenian airline Armavia. The
state-controlled Russian bank Vneshtorgbank owns 70% of the Armenian
Saving Bank. "Russia has effectively bought up Armenia's national
railway network with a $570 million investment. Russia's greatest
economic lever with Azerbaijan and Armenia is in the form of migrant
workers and their remittances," the report states.
tert.am
21.06.12
Home of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House
has published its 2012 report - The Long Goodbye: Waning Russian
Influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
In his report, the author, James Nixey, states that Russian influence
in the independent states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia
is weakening; the drift is inexorable but Russia employs multiple
instruments to counter this. "In the South Caucasus, Armenia has
already succumbed to Russia economically, with ramifications for
its sovereignty. But Azerbaijan and Georgia, via different paths,
have moved away from Russia's embrace," the report states.
"The levers of Russian influence here vary. They are economic and
military in Armenia, scarcely present in Azerbaijan, and essentially
related to negative publicity as well as economics with regard
to Georgia. Russian influence in Armenia is so great that lack of
sovereignty should be Armenia's number one concern," the author says.
According to the report, Russian influence in South Ossetia and
Abkhazia has increased. The costs and problems associated with these
dependencies suggest to some that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are
millstones around Russia's neck. However, the Rs7.7 billion ($250
million) Russia spends on them each year is a trivial sum.
Referring to Nagorno Karabakh, the report says Russia's support of
Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute has been based on several
interests: limiting Turkish influence, countering a Russophobic
Azerbaijan in the early years of independence, and long-standing
cultural ties reflected in the large Armenian diaspora in Russia.
"Russia's positioning has given it a powerful lever of influence
over Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as external parties. However,
its backing of Armenia's stance has changed in recent years: during
his presidency, Medvedev invested more effort in mediation than his
predecessors and the Azerbaijani first family has strong interests
in Russia," the report continues.
The author writes that a full-blown renewal of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict would jeopardize Russia's position in Azerbaijan and Turkey,
particularly if the Armenians required military assistance.
Pipeline security would also be affected, and Russia prioritizes
energy security and financial profit over conflict manipulation.
"In 2003, the CEO of United Energy Systems (UES), Anatoliy Chubais,
outlined plans to integrate the South Caucasus into a Russia-led
energy-supply network through ten former Soviet republics, as well
as plans to ensure electricity outflows from Armenia to Turkey and
Azerbaijan. Chubais denied that UES sought political gains but he has
been a leading proponent of the concept of a Eurasian 'liberal empire'
and his actions gave Russia almost total control of Armenia's energy
market. It was Robert Kocharian, Armenia's president from 1998 to
2008, who effectively sold off Armenia to Chubais and other Russian
commercial and political interests.
Through Gazprom's ownership of its Armenian subsidiary, ArmRosGazprom,
80% of Armenia's energy structure is Russian-controlled, including
the majority of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline, thus ensuring that
Armenia cannot become an independent transit country should Iranian
gas ever reach European markets.
Russia has also bought up all but two of Armenia's hydroelectric and
nuclear power stations, in exchange for writing off Armenian debt.
The extent to which Russia has acquired concrete political gains from
energy and infrastructure ownership is a source of debate within
Armenia. Kocharian's successor, Serzh Sargsyan, is ostensibly less
pro-Russian but by the time of his election in 2008 much of his
country had already been sold," the report states.
According to it, in the non-energy commercial sectors, the
Russian airline Sibir owns 70% of the Armenian airline Armavia. The
state-controlled Russian bank Vneshtorgbank owns 70% of the Armenian
Saving Bank. "Russia has effectively bought up Armenia's national
railway network with a $570 million investment. Russia's greatest
economic lever with Azerbaijan and Armenia is in the form of migrant
workers and their remittances," the report states.