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HEATED RACES, EXCITING RESULTS
BY GAREN YEGPARIAN
ASBAREZ
Friday, June 22nd, 2012
The June 5th Presidential Primary Election turned out to be quite
interesting. Since much has already been written about them, I'll
spare you my extended commentary about the effects and results of
two new factors in California politics: the "top two" primary system
and redistricting by a citizen commission. As a result, the November
General Election will also produce some novelties. There are also
other factors countrywide that will contribute to the mix.
>From an Armenian perspective, the two main races were for the top
two positions in the 43rd and 46th California State Assembly districts.
Also, Danny Tarkanian won his Republican primary in Nevada's 4th
Congressional district, which bodes well for adding another strong
voice to advocate Armenian issues in Congress starting next year.
Please see the attached table for the results of the races in which
I made recommendations. I must here issue an apology to Khatcho
Achadjian who was running for reelection to his 35th California
Assembly district seat. He is such a strong candidate, but living
outside of heavily Armenian areas, that I fell victim to a ghetto
mentality and neglected to include him in my recommendations.
The first of "THE TWO" races is in California's 43rd Assembly
district. This district, as reconfigured by the post-2011 Census
redistricting process, includes some of the biggest Armenian
communities in the LA basin: Atwater, Burbank, Crescenta Valley
(partially), Glendale, and Hollywood, all of which have respectable
concentrations of Armenians. Here we have Greg Krikorian and Mike
Gatto. The latter won the seat after a nasty campaign a little over two
years ago. You might remember that campaign, where Nayiri Nahabedian,
the main candidate supported by the Armenian community, was undercut
by another Armenian running. For many people, who are convinced that
was no accident, the latter was recruited by the Gatto camp to split
the Armenian vote, which was probably the only way he could win.
This time, to avoid a replay of that scenario, Greg played his cards
very close to the chest and didn't announce his candidacy until
very close to the deadline, making it extremely difficult to find a
spoiler on such short notice. Of course this also hurt a little on
the fundraising and publicity fronts because it meant a late start,
but that will be made up between now and November. This will be a very
important test for our community since Gatto has not performed amicably
(even though it might appear he did because of his perfunctory actions)
towards this part of his constituency. There is much to write about
this race, but it will come out over the next few months.
Election results (click to enlarge)
The second of "THE TWO" races is in California's 46th Assembly
district. This one is where the new top two system had a major impact.
Six candidates were vying to get past the primary election in this
predominantly Democratic registration district. Adrin Nazarian,
familiar to many as Paul Krekorian's chief of staff and before that a
campaign organizer for other candidates, came out on top with 11,083
votes (27.3%). But, second place has been too close to call. It has
flipped between Brian Johnson and Jay Stern.
If Johnson (currently with 8145 votes, 20.1%), a Democrat, comes in
second, Adrin will face a bloody, ugly campaign. Huge sums of money
were spent in the form of "independent expenditures" on behalf of
Johnson by organizations advocating charter schools. The amount
exceeded what ALL THE CANDIDATES TOGETHER spent on the campaign. A
lot of what that money bought was negative advertising, sometimes
even crossing the line into what might well be called racism. One of
the hit pieces directed against Adrin was a mailer showing a bald guy
with a big nose, hairy armpits, and a mustache (Armenian stereotypes).
Clearly, it was appealing to the basest instincts among voters.
If Stern (currently with 8175 votes, 20.1%), a Republican comes in
second, the campaign will be far less challenging since, as I noted
above, this is a heavily Democratic district. As of this writing,
Stern is 30 votes ahead of Johnson with less than 2000 votes left to
count (these are ballots that were cast provisionally, were damaged,
were absentees that arrived on election day, or were not counted on
election day for some other reason). There is good reason for optimism
at this point, i.e. that Stern will beat Johnson for second place,
but it's not over yet. This demonstrates the importance of EVERY
VOTE. "My vote doesn't matter," as an argument utterly collapses when
faced with this reality.
Another bloody campaign has been in the 30th Congressional district,
the "ermans" race. Here, two supporters of Armenian issues, both
Democrats, have gone for each others' throats. Brad Sherman came out
ahead in the primary, currently with 39,689 votes (42.4%), to Howard
Berman's 30,425 votes (32.5%). But 20,903 votes (22.3%) were divided
among three Republican candidates. Conventional wisdom has it that
this segment of the electorate is more likely to support Berman, which
means he would win in November. But, this is a simplistic analysis
and how the ermans conduct their campaign until the general election
may well have an impact on how people vote. It will be very intense.
As a sample of how intense, here's a story. I was volunteering for
Adrin campaign. Parts of that Assembly district overlap with the
ermans' Congressional district, meaning voters in that overlapping
area were getting bombarded with campaign literature, calls, and door
knockers. One person I spoke to was so tired of it all that he said,
in all seriousness, "you'll just have to call me after the election".
But these won't be the only hot issues in November's election. There
will be a large number of propositions for Californians to vote
on. In other states, divisive ballot measures addressing 'wedge"
issues will be put to the electorate, often cynically, just to
drive up voter turnout on whichever end of the political spectrum
that issue is important to. The political climate will also be VERY
hot in Wisconsin where the union-busting Republican governor just
survived a recall election but lost his State Senate majority to the
Democrats because a Republican senator was ousted and replaced by a
Democrat. The conflict over this governor's unconscionable policies
has been going on since early 2011.
Sadly, there is already an effort underway in Florida to
allegedly "clean up the voter rolls". This is right-wing speak for
"disenfranchise". Usually poorer, or otherwise Democratic leaning,
segments of the voting public are targeted. Florida did the same
thing in 2000, at least partially leading to Bush's election. Luckily,
they haven't been as successful this time because their vile actions
are being watched more closely. But Republicans aren't the only ones
who engage in this loathsome practice. See "Solution Seeking Problem"
in the November 17 issue of Asbarez to learn about what Mike Gatto,
a Democrat, did.
Above everything else, please set aside enough time on November sixth
to vote, or do it by mail beforehand.
From: Baghdasarian
BY GAREN YEGPARIAN
ASBAREZ
Friday, June 22nd, 2012
The June 5th Presidential Primary Election turned out to be quite
interesting. Since much has already been written about them, I'll
spare you my extended commentary about the effects and results of
two new factors in California politics: the "top two" primary system
and redistricting by a citizen commission. As a result, the November
General Election will also produce some novelties. There are also
other factors countrywide that will contribute to the mix.
>From an Armenian perspective, the two main races were for the top
two positions in the 43rd and 46th California State Assembly districts.
Also, Danny Tarkanian won his Republican primary in Nevada's 4th
Congressional district, which bodes well for adding another strong
voice to advocate Armenian issues in Congress starting next year.
Please see the attached table for the results of the races in which
I made recommendations. I must here issue an apology to Khatcho
Achadjian who was running for reelection to his 35th California
Assembly district seat. He is such a strong candidate, but living
outside of heavily Armenian areas, that I fell victim to a ghetto
mentality and neglected to include him in my recommendations.
The first of "THE TWO" races is in California's 43rd Assembly
district. This district, as reconfigured by the post-2011 Census
redistricting process, includes some of the biggest Armenian
communities in the LA basin: Atwater, Burbank, Crescenta Valley
(partially), Glendale, and Hollywood, all of which have respectable
concentrations of Armenians. Here we have Greg Krikorian and Mike
Gatto. The latter won the seat after a nasty campaign a little over two
years ago. You might remember that campaign, where Nayiri Nahabedian,
the main candidate supported by the Armenian community, was undercut
by another Armenian running. For many people, who are convinced that
was no accident, the latter was recruited by the Gatto camp to split
the Armenian vote, which was probably the only way he could win.
This time, to avoid a replay of that scenario, Greg played his cards
very close to the chest and didn't announce his candidacy until
very close to the deadline, making it extremely difficult to find a
spoiler on such short notice. Of course this also hurt a little on
the fundraising and publicity fronts because it meant a late start,
but that will be made up between now and November. This will be a very
important test for our community since Gatto has not performed amicably
(even though it might appear he did because of his perfunctory actions)
towards this part of his constituency. There is much to write about
this race, but it will come out over the next few months.
Election results (click to enlarge)
The second of "THE TWO" races is in California's 46th Assembly
district. This one is where the new top two system had a major impact.
Six candidates were vying to get past the primary election in this
predominantly Democratic registration district. Adrin Nazarian,
familiar to many as Paul Krekorian's chief of staff and before that a
campaign organizer for other candidates, came out on top with 11,083
votes (27.3%). But, second place has been too close to call. It has
flipped between Brian Johnson and Jay Stern.
If Johnson (currently with 8145 votes, 20.1%), a Democrat, comes in
second, Adrin will face a bloody, ugly campaign. Huge sums of money
were spent in the form of "independent expenditures" on behalf of
Johnson by organizations advocating charter schools. The amount
exceeded what ALL THE CANDIDATES TOGETHER spent on the campaign. A
lot of what that money bought was negative advertising, sometimes
even crossing the line into what might well be called racism. One of
the hit pieces directed against Adrin was a mailer showing a bald guy
with a big nose, hairy armpits, and a mustache (Armenian stereotypes).
Clearly, it was appealing to the basest instincts among voters.
If Stern (currently with 8175 votes, 20.1%), a Republican comes in
second, the campaign will be far less challenging since, as I noted
above, this is a heavily Democratic district. As of this writing,
Stern is 30 votes ahead of Johnson with less than 2000 votes left to
count (these are ballots that were cast provisionally, were damaged,
were absentees that arrived on election day, or were not counted on
election day for some other reason). There is good reason for optimism
at this point, i.e. that Stern will beat Johnson for second place,
but it's not over yet. This demonstrates the importance of EVERY
VOTE. "My vote doesn't matter," as an argument utterly collapses when
faced with this reality.
Another bloody campaign has been in the 30th Congressional district,
the "ermans" race. Here, two supporters of Armenian issues, both
Democrats, have gone for each others' throats. Brad Sherman came out
ahead in the primary, currently with 39,689 votes (42.4%), to Howard
Berman's 30,425 votes (32.5%). But 20,903 votes (22.3%) were divided
among three Republican candidates. Conventional wisdom has it that
this segment of the electorate is more likely to support Berman, which
means he would win in November. But, this is a simplistic analysis
and how the ermans conduct their campaign until the general election
may well have an impact on how people vote. It will be very intense.
As a sample of how intense, here's a story. I was volunteering for
Adrin campaign. Parts of that Assembly district overlap with the
ermans' Congressional district, meaning voters in that overlapping
area were getting bombarded with campaign literature, calls, and door
knockers. One person I spoke to was so tired of it all that he said,
in all seriousness, "you'll just have to call me after the election".
But these won't be the only hot issues in November's election. There
will be a large number of propositions for Californians to vote
on. In other states, divisive ballot measures addressing 'wedge"
issues will be put to the electorate, often cynically, just to
drive up voter turnout on whichever end of the political spectrum
that issue is important to. The political climate will also be VERY
hot in Wisconsin where the union-busting Republican governor just
survived a recall election but lost his State Senate majority to the
Democrats because a Republican senator was ousted and replaced by a
Democrat. The conflict over this governor's unconscionable policies
has been going on since early 2011.
Sadly, there is already an effort underway in Florida to
allegedly "clean up the voter rolls". This is right-wing speak for
"disenfranchise". Usually poorer, or otherwise Democratic leaning,
segments of the voting public are targeted. Florida did the same
thing in 2000, at least partially leading to Bush's election. Luckily,
they haven't been as successful this time because their vile actions
are being watched more closely. But Republicans aren't the only ones
who engage in this loathsome practice. See "Solution Seeking Problem"
in the November 17 issue of Asbarez to learn about what Mike Gatto,
a Democrat, did.
Above everything else, please set aside enough time on November sixth
to vote, or do it by mail beforehand.
From: Baghdasarian