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WHY DOES IRAN SUPPORT ARMENIA ABOUT KARABAKH ISSUE?
Today's Zaman
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-284543-why-does-iran-support-armenia-about-karabakh-issue-by-mehmet-fatih-oztarsu*.html
June 24 2012
Turkey
The balance in Caucasia that shifted with the collapse of the Soviet
Union caused a big change in the foreign policy vision of the states
in the region.
While examining the problems that emerged between republics, which
gained their sovereignty, it is possible to see the changes in
foreign policy of neighboring countries. The attempt by neighboring
countries and international organizations to expand their influence
into Nagorno-Karabakh, one of the region's unsolved problems,
indicate the results of the aforementioned changes in foreign policy
expansion. The attitude of Iran, one of the dominant actors in the
region, regarding the events occurring in Caucasia varies from time
to time. For Iran, Russia's loss of power after the collapse of the
Soviet Union and the end of the threat of communism paved the way for
the emergence of new threats. All kinds of groundswells influencing
Iran via Caucasia throughout history caused, in the new political
sphere, the spread of the threat of ethnic nationalism. The reason why
Iran can't ignore this threat is that Iran's borders with neighboring
countries are surrounded by different ethnic groups. Today, close to
25 million Azerbaijani Turks live in the Southern Azerbaijan region,
which is on the Caucasian border of the country. Iran is worried about
the activities of West-oriented units in the region that could carry
out joint incursions with Russia about the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,
the most important matter of conflict in South Caucasia, thereby
Iran bears a varying attitude towards it because of Iran's national
security concerns. The attitude of Iran, which acts by using Islamic
revolution discourse as a basis for its foreign policy just like in
its other policies, regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is to keep
balanced relations with both sides. Iran must behave warmly to Armenia
especially due to the ethnic structure of South Azerbaijan, and it
is also believed that the country may be adopting such an attitude
because of the instability of its alliances with big states. As for
Armenia, which has closed its border checkpoints with Turkey and
Azerbaijan and could have been faced with a dead end, but instead
can meet its need to access other countries comfortably through
Iran, and it can also establish important commercial and energy
partnerships with the country. Iran mentioned that it respects the
territorial integrity of countries right from the beginning of the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Iran's expressing this discourse as a
principle and its engaging in conciliatory activities are policies
that Iran pursues for the purpose of taking advantage of balances
in the region in a way or for the purpose of minimizing prospective
damages. With regards to this issue, in Baku in 1992, Iran's foreign n
affairs minister told Azerbaijani officials, for the first time that
Iran can be mediator country between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Iranian
Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmud Vaezi's held talks in Baku and Yerevan
in order to negotiate about the details of the ceasefire and the
exchange of captives, however, Armenia's invasion of Shusha's and
Lachin's caused Iran's conciliation attempts to fail.
Iran under the thumb of Russia Feeling the dominance of Russia in
all of the developments in the region, Iran again pursued a solution
under Russia's terms for the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. This resulted
in the emergence of closer relations with Armenia. Additionally,
Azerbaijan's sympathy towards the Turkey-Israel strategic alliance
towards the end of 1990s was responded to with Iran's sympathy
towards the Yerevan-Athens-Moscow alliance. With this alliance
becoming ineffective in the aftermath of Sept. 11, Iran headed towards
strengthening its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan and from time
to time it disapproved of Armenia's invasion in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The shifting attitude of Iran, which doesn't mention any religious
or ethnic terms while describing the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, may be
explained in various terms. The threat that the Turkic society in
South Azerbaijan may be sympathetic with Azerbaijan, in the case that
the problem is solved, is one of Iran's biggest concerns. According
to Iran, Armenia is a country that should be counted among the ranks
of Russia. And Turkey's dominance in Caucasia may be decreased by
through diplomatic tensions between Turkey and Armenia; and Iran can
create some chances via the Armenia diaspora in the West and it can
even gain support from the diaspora in terms of improving its image
in the international community. As a matter of fact this latest issue
is directly related to the Armenians in Syria that support the Assad
regime. The attitudes of Iran, which considers Armenia as a means of
changing the balance in the region and makes expansions based on their
view of Armenia, about the Nagorno-Karabakh issue have been majorly
influenced by anti-Iran discourses of the Abulfaz Elchibey period.
Making an emphasis on sectarian integrity for South Azerbaijani
people, Iran has made special efforts to strengthen cultural ties. It
is unfavorable for Iran that the clashes taking place in the region
affect its own land.
Another issue is the necessity for the existence of a common policy
that Iran can move together with Russia against Western impact on the
region. It seems that Iran has joined the ranks of Russia with its
pro-Armenia attitude, which has caused a separate power balance in
the region, and enabled Iran to be less concerned about its national
security. With its desire to avoid the West-leaning effect of Turkey
in the region and to hinder the possible influence of Turkey on
Turkic people with its pro-Armenia attitudes, Iran wants to be a more
effective actor in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Recently repeating
its offer to become a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran,
just like in the policy pursued by Russia, desires to make its presence
felt via this problem.
Azerbaijan expecting more decisive stance from Russia In this matter,
the message that Azerbaijan gave to Russia via its treatment of the
Gabala Radar Station issue must also be handled.
Keeping the Gabala issue as a trump card so far with regards to
Moscow's attitudes concerning the Karabakh issue, Azerbaijan wants
to see a more decisive stance from Russia. According to the idea of
some experts, Russia intends to mobilize this station and move it
to Armenia or North Caucasia. With reference to recent radar station
discussions, the role that Russia cast for Iran should be argued.
Because of the showdown that started between Iran and Azerbaijan,
inducing Russia and attempting to have good relations with Israel are
important. Pursuing this way, Iran, which keeps on having problems with
the West, desires to improve its image by means of strong lobbies from
the Armenian diaspora, which carries out globally effective activities.
All these issues feature the fundamental issues that determine
Iran's attitude towards the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Iran, as the
neighboring country, which pursues a pro-Armenia policy due to the
effect of the Turkic population in South Azerbaijan, is important in
terms of the collective development towards peace. With reference to
its impact on the solution of the problem, Iran, which will be unable
to sustain its anti-West and pro-Russia inclination in terms of the
existing problems in the region, has an indisputable importance as a
neighboring country. What Iran gained by means of the decisions that
it issued as a requirement of the policies it pursued in the region
is another matter that should be questioned. In addition to that,
Russia's continual lack of involvement in regards to the Iranian
nuclear issue causes curiosity about what the new policies will be.
Iran's mediation discourse, which it has started to frequently repeat,
gives the impression that in the short term Iran will pursue a more
conciliatory way that is open to a showdown with Azerbaijan because
of different expectations and inducements.
*Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu is an analyst at the Center for International
Strategy and Security Studies.
From: A. Papazian
Today's Zaman
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-284543-why-does-iran-support-armenia-about-karabakh-issue-by-mehmet-fatih-oztarsu*.html
June 24 2012
Turkey
The balance in Caucasia that shifted with the collapse of the Soviet
Union caused a big change in the foreign policy vision of the states
in the region.
While examining the problems that emerged between republics, which
gained their sovereignty, it is possible to see the changes in
foreign policy of neighboring countries. The attempt by neighboring
countries and international organizations to expand their influence
into Nagorno-Karabakh, one of the region's unsolved problems,
indicate the results of the aforementioned changes in foreign policy
expansion. The attitude of Iran, one of the dominant actors in the
region, regarding the events occurring in Caucasia varies from time
to time. For Iran, Russia's loss of power after the collapse of the
Soviet Union and the end of the threat of communism paved the way for
the emergence of new threats. All kinds of groundswells influencing
Iran via Caucasia throughout history caused, in the new political
sphere, the spread of the threat of ethnic nationalism. The reason why
Iran can't ignore this threat is that Iran's borders with neighboring
countries are surrounded by different ethnic groups. Today, close to
25 million Azerbaijani Turks live in the Southern Azerbaijan region,
which is on the Caucasian border of the country. Iran is worried about
the activities of West-oriented units in the region that could carry
out joint incursions with Russia about the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,
the most important matter of conflict in South Caucasia, thereby
Iran bears a varying attitude towards it because of Iran's national
security concerns. The attitude of Iran, which acts by using Islamic
revolution discourse as a basis for its foreign policy just like in
its other policies, regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is to keep
balanced relations with both sides. Iran must behave warmly to Armenia
especially due to the ethnic structure of South Azerbaijan, and it
is also believed that the country may be adopting such an attitude
because of the instability of its alliances with big states. As for
Armenia, which has closed its border checkpoints with Turkey and
Azerbaijan and could have been faced with a dead end, but instead
can meet its need to access other countries comfortably through
Iran, and it can also establish important commercial and energy
partnerships with the country. Iran mentioned that it respects the
territorial integrity of countries right from the beginning of the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Iran's expressing this discourse as a
principle and its engaging in conciliatory activities are policies
that Iran pursues for the purpose of taking advantage of balances
in the region in a way or for the purpose of minimizing prospective
damages. With regards to this issue, in Baku in 1992, Iran's foreign n
affairs minister told Azerbaijani officials, for the first time that
Iran can be mediator country between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Iranian
Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmud Vaezi's held talks in Baku and Yerevan
in order to negotiate about the details of the ceasefire and the
exchange of captives, however, Armenia's invasion of Shusha's and
Lachin's caused Iran's conciliation attempts to fail.
Iran under the thumb of Russia Feeling the dominance of Russia in
all of the developments in the region, Iran again pursued a solution
under Russia's terms for the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. This resulted
in the emergence of closer relations with Armenia. Additionally,
Azerbaijan's sympathy towards the Turkey-Israel strategic alliance
towards the end of 1990s was responded to with Iran's sympathy
towards the Yerevan-Athens-Moscow alliance. With this alliance
becoming ineffective in the aftermath of Sept. 11, Iran headed towards
strengthening its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan and from time
to time it disapproved of Armenia's invasion in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The shifting attitude of Iran, which doesn't mention any religious
or ethnic terms while describing the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, may be
explained in various terms. The threat that the Turkic society in
South Azerbaijan may be sympathetic with Azerbaijan, in the case that
the problem is solved, is one of Iran's biggest concerns. According
to Iran, Armenia is a country that should be counted among the ranks
of Russia. And Turkey's dominance in Caucasia may be decreased by
through diplomatic tensions between Turkey and Armenia; and Iran can
create some chances via the Armenia diaspora in the West and it can
even gain support from the diaspora in terms of improving its image
in the international community. As a matter of fact this latest issue
is directly related to the Armenians in Syria that support the Assad
regime. The attitudes of Iran, which considers Armenia as a means of
changing the balance in the region and makes expansions based on their
view of Armenia, about the Nagorno-Karabakh issue have been majorly
influenced by anti-Iran discourses of the Abulfaz Elchibey period.
Making an emphasis on sectarian integrity for South Azerbaijani
people, Iran has made special efforts to strengthen cultural ties. It
is unfavorable for Iran that the clashes taking place in the region
affect its own land.
Another issue is the necessity for the existence of a common policy
that Iran can move together with Russia against Western impact on the
region. It seems that Iran has joined the ranks of Russia with its
pro-Armenia attitude, which has caused a separate power balance in
the region, and enabled Iran to be less concerned about its national
security. With its desire to avoid the West-leaning effect of Turkey
in the region and to hinder the possible influence of Turkey on
Turkic people with its pro-Armenia attitudes, Iran wants to be a more
effective actor in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Recently repeating
its offer to become a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran,
just like in the policy pursued by Russia, desires to make its presence
felt via this problem.
Azerbaijan expecting more decisive stance from Russia In this matter,
the message that Azerbaijan gave to Russia via its treatment of the
Gabala Radar Station issue must also be handled.
Keeping the Gabala issue as a trump card so far with regards to
Moscow's attitudes concerning the Karabakh issue, Azerbaijan wants
to see a more decisive stance from Russia. According to the idea of
some experts, Russia intends to mobilize this station and move it
to Armenia or North Caucasia. With reference to recent radar station
discussions, the role that Russia cast for Iran should be argued.
Because of the showdown that started between Iran and Azerbaijan,
inducing Russia and attempting to have good relations with Israel are
important. Pursuing this way, Iran, which keeps on having problems with
the West, desires to improve its image by means of strong lobbies from
the Armenian diaspora, which carries out globally effective activities.
All these issues feature the fundamental issues that determine
Iran's attitude towards the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Iran, as the
neighboring country, which pursues a pro-Armenia policy due to the
effect of the Turkic population in South Azerbaijan, is important in
terms of the collective development towards peace. With reference to
its impact on the solution of the problem, Iran, which will be unable
to sustain its anti-West and pro-Russia inclination in terms of the
existing problems in the region, has an indisputable importance as a
neighboring country. What Iran gained by means of the decisions that
it issued as a requirement of the policies it pursued in the region
is another matter that should be questioned. In addition to that,
Russia's continual lack of involvement in regards to the Iranian
nuclear issue causes curiosity about what the new policies will be.
Iran's mediation discourse, which it has started to frequently repeat,
gives the impression that in the short term Iran will pursue a more
conciliatory way that is open to a showdown with Azerbaijan because
of different expectations and inducements.
*Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu is an analyst at the Center for International
Strategy and Security Studies.
From: A. Papazian