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WHAT ARE THE TURKS AFRAID OF?
By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed
Asharq Alawsat (The Middle East)
June 24, 2012 Sunday
Turkey is Syria's largest neighbor, with some influence inside Syria
itself, particularly in the eastern region. It now appears that the
Turks have some legitimacy to intervene to defend their national
interests and sovereignty, which has been violated on numerous
occasions by al-Assad regime forces. We must not forget that what
is happening in Syria threatens Turkey's national security, whether
the al-Assad regime survives or is toppled. For Ankara fears the
return of the separatist Kurds, after Turkey had been able to crush
this movement, particularly as more than 40,000 have been killed in
previous guerilla wars between Turkey and Kurdish separatists. Turkey
also fears terrorist groups who may seek to fill the vacuum left by
the ouster of the al-Assad regime, whilst as the same time there are
fears that should the Syrian regime manage to survive; it will seek
to conspire against Turkey in retaliation.
When the Syrian Air Defenses shot down the Turkish military warplane
on Friday, it was expected that Turkey would respond militarily,
particularly as it warned the Syrian regime that it would not remain
silent to the escalating attacks carried out by Syrian forces across
the Turkish borders, however Turkey's response has disenchanted many.
The Turks have already disappointed many, after they pledged they
would not stand idly by whilst the Syrian people were being killed.
Turkey is a major country and possess military capabilities that would
allow it to be victorious in any military confrontation, and would find
itself welcomed by the majority of the Syrian people as a savior from
a criminal regime that is killing dozens of unarmed people on a daily
basis. What is preventing Turkey being like the US, when it rescued
France from Nazi occupation, or for the Syrians to do what America
and Saudi Arabia did with regards to driving out Saddam Hussein's
forces from Kuwait? Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan can
play the role that was played by former US president Bill Clinton,
with regards to saving Bosnia, Herzegovina and Kosovo.
The Turks are suggesting that they are prepared to intervene to stop
the massacres and rein in the al-Assad regime; however it seems
that they are also afraid. But what are they afraid of, when they
possess the military capability to easily beat the al-Assad regime,
particularly as the Syrian forces are exhausted and unpopular, or as
former Cyprus Prime Minister said - upon being asked about the arming
issue - there is no benefit in going back now, particularly as Turkey
has a huge military capability that would allow them to defeat us in
a matter of hours.
The Turks carried out their last unilateral military action in August
1974 against the Greek-Cypriots and won quickly, and I believe that
the Turks do not want to be part of war except under an international
flag. However this is impossible thanks to the Russian and Chinese
veto. Nor do the Turks want to involve NATO, along the lines of the
Libyan scenario; however it seems that the NATO forces are equally
reluctant to get involved with the battle against al-Assad.
The Turks prefer to be part of an international mission, for Turkey
is an important member of NATO, and after the US, contributes the
most troops to this organizations, approximately 750,000.
So why are the Turks so reluctant to get involved in a conflict
with the al-Assad regime, despite all its provocations, and their
embarrassment in front of regional public opinion?
Perhaps this is because the Turks are hoping one of two things
will take place: either for the al-Assad regime to be toppled by the
revolution that is wearing it down, or for the international community
to have enough from his crimes and reach an agreement against him...at
this point Turkey would be at the spearhead and enter Damascus under
an international flag. However the second possibility is unlikely
due to the Russian position which is completely biased towards the
Syrian regime. Turkey's fears are well-known; domestically, it fears
that its war in Syria would open new fronts at home with Kurdish
and Armenian opposition separatist movements, or that Iran would
open a front with it. However these are justifications and excuses
because Turkey is militarily and economically stronger than Iran,
and it would be backed by NATO, whilst the Syrian regime is reeling,
no matter how steadfast its leader is trying to appear.
In my opinion, Turkey, which has remained silent to al-Assad's insults,
will reach a stage where it will have no choice but to intervene in
order to defend its interests, the difference is if it intervenes now,
it will receive huge popular and material support from the Arabs and
others who hate the crimes being committed by the al-Assad regime.
By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed
Asharq Alawsat (The Middle East)
June 24, 2012 Sunday
Turkey is Syria's largest neighbor, with some influence inside Syria
itself, particularly in the eastern region. It now appears that the
Turks have some legitimacy to intervene to defend their national
interests and sovereignty, which has been violated on numerous
occasions by al-Assad regime forces. We must not forget that what
is happening in Syria threatens Turkey's national security, whether
the al-Assad regime survives or is toppled. For Ankara fears the
return of the separatist Kurds, after Turkey had been able to crush
this movement, particularly as more than 40,000 have been killed in
previous guerilla wars between Turkey and Kurdish separatists. Turkey
also fears terrorist groups who may seek to fill the vacuum left by
the ouster of the al-Assad regime, whilst as the same time there are
fears that should the Syrian regime manage to survive; it will seek
to conspire against Turkey in retaliation.
When the Syrian Air Defenses shot down the Turkish military warplane
on Friday, it was expected that Turkey would respond militarily,
particularly as it warned the Syrian regime that it would not remain
silent to the escalating attacks carried out by Syrian forces across
the Turkish borders, however Turkey's response has disenchanted many.
The Turks have already disappointed many, after they pledged they
would not stand idly by whilst the Syrian people were being killed.
Turkey is a major country and possess military capabilities that would
allow it to be victorious in any military confrontation, and would find
itself welcomed by the majority of the Syrian people as a savior from
a criminal regime that is killing dozens of unarmed people on a daily
basis. What is preventing Turkey being like the US, when it rescued
France from Nazi occupation, or for the Syrians to do what America
and Saudi Arabia did with regards to driving out Saddam Hussein's
forces from Kuwait? Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan can
play the role that was played by former US president Bill Clinton,
with regards to saving Bosnia, Herzegovina and Kosovo.
The Turks are suggesting that they are prepared to intervene to stop
the massacres and rein in the al-Assad regime; however it seems
that they are also afraid. But what are they afraid of, when they
possess the military capability to easily beat the al-Assad regime,
particularly as the Syrian forces are exhausted and unpopular, or as
former Cyprus Prime Minister said - upon being asked about the arming
issue - there is no benefit in going back now, particularly as Turkey
has a huge military capability that would allow them to defeat us in
a matter of hours.
The Turks carried out their last unilateral military action in August
1974 against the Greek-Cypriots and won quickly, and I believe that
the Turks do not want to be part of war except under an international
flag. However this is impossible thanks to the Russian and Chinese
veto. Nor do the Turks want to involve NATO, along the lines of the
Libyan scenario; however it seems that the NATO forces are equally
reluctant to get involved with the battle against al-Assad.
The Turks prefer to be part of an international mission, for Turkey
is an important member of NATO, and after the US, contributes the
most troops to this organizations, approximately 750,000.
So why are the Turks so reluctant to get involved in a conflict
with the al-Assad regime, despite all its provocations, and their
embarrassment in front of regional public opinion?
Perhaps this is because the Turks are hoping one of two things
will take place: either for the al-Assad regime to be toppled by the
revolution that is wearing it down, or for the international community
to have enough from his crimes and reach an agreement against him...at
this point Turkey would be at the spearhead and enter Damascus under
an international flag. However the second possibility is unlikely
due to the Russian position which is completely biased towards the
Syrian regime. Turkey's fears are well-known; domestically, it fears
that its war in Syria would open new fronts at home with Kurdish
and Armenian opposition separatist movements, or that Iran would
open a front with it. However these are justifications and excuses
because Turkey is militarily and economically stronger than Iran,
and it would be backed by NATO, whilst the Syrian regime is reeling,
no matter how steadfast its leader is trying to appear.
In my opinion, Turkey, which has remained silent to al-Assad's insults,
will reach a stage where it will have no choice but to intervene in
order to defend its interests, the difference is if it intervenes now,
it will receive huge popular and material support from the Arabs and
others who hate the crimes being committed by the al-Assad regime.