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INTERESTS OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS COUNTRIES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SYRIAN AND IRANIAN PROBLEMS
David Stepanyan
Vestnik Kavkaza
June 26 2012
Russia
The recent visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Armenia,
Azerbaijan, and Georgia has provoked certain reflections amongst
experts of the South Caucasus republics about the real purpose of
her visit. It is a known fact that the United States has been trying
to promote a project of neutralizing the growing ambitions of the
Islamic Republic of Iran in Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi for quite
a while. It is also no secret that Israeli diplomats take part
in these negotiations. At the same time, the position of Russia,
the main strategic ally of Armenia, on Iran and Syria is radically
different from the position of the United States, Israel and the
Western community. Washington and Tel Aviv are planning aggression
against Tehran and Damascus, while Moscow is doing its best to
solve the problems of the Syrian issue and Iranian nuclear issue
peacefully. In this context, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will have
to choose between the geopolitical interests of Moscow and Washington
sooner or later.
It is remarkable that the position of Tbilisi on this issue
substantially differs from those of Baku and Yerevan. Georgia, which
is trying to become a member of NATO, a long-time dream of Tbilisi,
is trying its best to make U.S. soldiers feel comfortable on its
territory. Another manifestation of the close cooperation between
Georgia and the United States in the defense sector was the visit
of the ex-U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to Georgia which
began on the 21st of June. Rumsfeld has already met with the Minister
of Defence of Georgia, Bacho Akhalaia; they discussed the issues of
improving Georgia's defense and military education. The conversation
also touched on Georgia's participation in peace-making operations
in Afghanistan (ISAF) and the prospects of integration into NATO.
However, according to some analysts, the real purpose of this visit
is actually to discuss the probable involvement of Georgia in the
operation of neutralizing Iran.
In fact, the Pentagon has already established all the necessary
infrastructure for starting an operation against Iran on the territory
of Georgia. The most obvious and visible part of it is quite an
extended concrete six-lane freeway built with American funds as a
section of the road from Tbilisi to Poti. Given the sufficiently strong
foundation of the new road, as well as its location, the freeway, if
desired, and the Pentagon has such a desire, may serve as a runway for
US-NATO fighter jets if the Pentagon suddenly decides to bomb Iran's
nuclear facilities and more. Given the bad relations between Mikhail
Saakashvili and Vladimir Putin, who still doesn't pay any attention
to Mikheil Nikolozovich, the latter can do nothing but support his
satrap, i. e. the United States, which has an obvious interest in
the neutralization of Iran.
The situation with Armenia and Azerbaijan is a bit different. Yerevan
is connected to the Moscow Treaty on Strategic Partnership, the
majority of the strategically-important faclities are either in the
ownership or management of the concession of Russia. In Armenia,
there are such Russian companies as MTS, Gazprom, Rusal, railway
companies and Rosatom. In addition, it is Moscow that continues to
play the role of the main moderator of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
though within the framework of the Minsk Group. It is remarkable that
this occurs with the full consent of Armenia and the forced consent
of Azerbaijan, because there are too many third countries seeking to
participate in the settlement of the conflict. The 102nd military
base in Gyumri, equipped with the S-300, the most powerful systems
of air defense and military technologies, also takes an important
place in bilateral cooperation. The personnel of the base is about
5000 people. The centuries-old Armenian-Iranian relations are another
issue. The Islamic Republic has pretty strong ties with Armenia, both
in the political an the economic sphere. The latest manifestation
of the Islamic Republic's interest in the implementation of economic
projects in the country was an agreement on joint construction of the
Megri Hydro-electric Power Plant on the river Araks, separating Armenia
and Iran. The Megri HPP will be the largest hydropower project in the
Caucasus. Armenian-Iranian relations can be discussed a long time,
just as Armenian-Russian ones can be.
Meanwhile, in Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia are perceived in a somewhat
different perspective than in Armenia. However, this fact is not
surprising, given the strategic relations between Baku and Ankara. The
relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are a different topic, which is
rather confusing, because since 2012 these relations have significantly
aggravated. The formal reason was the close friendship of Baku with
Israel which, to put it mildly, Tehran does not really like. However,
Israeli politicians openly admit that the good relations between
Israel and Azerbaijan are a part of the Israeli concept of encircling
Iran, which Armenia does not fit for obvious reasons. The latest
manifestation of the Israeli-Azerbaijani friendship was an agreement to
supply Israeli weapons to Azerbaijan worth 1.6 billion dollars. It is
also noteworthy that 40% of oil imported to Israel is from Azerbaijan,
which has, moreover, quite a powerful lobby in Israel. Considering
all these factors, Tehran has voiced veiled threats against Baku at
the highest level many times, which will be implemented if the latter
dares to support the US-Israeli plans to neutralize the IRI. The latest
transaction of supplying Israeli weapons has caused a new round in the
"cold war" between Baku and Tehran. So the Azerbaijani authorities
are now facing a serious dilemma: supporting NATO's aggressive plans,
and thus becoming a rival of Iran, or supporting the peace-making
efforts of Moscow, thus antagonizing Washington.
Currently, the global confrontation with Iran has moved to the context
of the confrontation around the civil war in Syria. Today, the U.S.
and the Western world are trying their best to destroy the undesirable
for them but legitimate regime of Bashar al-Assad. Russia and China
consistently protect Assad by imposing a veto on the project of the
resolution on Syria in the UN Security Council. Based on this foreign
policy of Moscow, it is clear that the Kremlin is not going to allow
the implementation of a Libyan scenario in Syria, when after the
adoption of the UN Security Council resolution which was used for
bombing Libya the regime of Muammar Qaddafi was destroyed. Moscow
believes that Russia and the U.S. should use their power to
influence the Syrian authorities and the opposition and stop armed
confrontation. Today it is broadly understood that after the fall of
Syria and the departure of the Russians from Syria the next target
of the supporters of expanding "Peace and Democracy" will be Iran,
with its nuclear program. After that, the entire region, including
the countries of the South Caucasus, will plunge into chaos which
only American strategists dare to characterize as a managed one.
Based on the above, today the South Caucasus countries should
combine their efforts and support Moscow's efforts aimed at peace in
the region. The war in Syria, and in particular in Iran, would mean
millions of refugees and economic devastation in the region and all the
other "delights" that the Americans have brought to Iraq, Libya and
Afghanistan. For Georgia, which has frozen, unsolved conflicts with
Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and for Armenia and Azerbaijan
with their frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a war on their borders
could lead to really unpredictable consequences. Today no one can
predict how, for example, the Azeris living in northern Iran will
behave in this case, if they will migrate to Azerbaijan or Armenia
or prefer the contested Nagorno-Karabakh...
In order to determine their foreign policy priorities, the countries
of the Caucasus should just recall August 2008, when after a five-day
war Georgia was brought into a state of time pressure, and Armenia
and Azerbaijan have suffered losses of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Again, all this was the result of essentially a small local war
resulting from aggression against the small Ossetian people. It is
quite easy to understand what will happen to Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Georgia in case of further escalation of the aggression around Syria
and Iran. That is why all three South Caucasus countries, which are
all quite vulnerable, are interested in maintaining at least relative
peace and stability in the region. And now this peace and stability
can be guaranteed only by Russia, of course, with the support of China
and member countries of the Collective Security Treaty. The U.S. is
very far from the South Caucasus, both geographically and mentally,
to be seriously interested in the destiny of the peoples living in
this small region at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. And Russia,
which always supported our people, now needs at least small support
in the implementation of its plans for peace-keeping and relative
stability in the region more than ever.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
David Stepanyan
Vestnik Kavkaza
June 26 2012
Russia
The recent visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Armenia,
Azerbaijan, and Georgia has provoked certain reflections amongst
experts of the South Caucasus republics about the real purpose of
her visit. It is a known fact that the United States has been trying
to promote a project of neutralizing the growing ambitions of the
Islamic Republic of Iran in Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi for quite
a while. It is also no secret that Israeli diplomats take part
in these negotiations. At the same time, the position of Russia,
the main strategic ally of Armenia, on Iran and Syria is radically
different from the position of the United States, Israel and the
Western community. Washington and Tel Aviv are planning aggression
against Tehran and Damascus, while Moscow is doing its best to
solve the problems of the Syrian issue and Iranian nuclear issue
peacefully. In this context, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will have
to choose between the geopolitical interests of Moscow and Washington
sooner or later.
It is remarkable that the position of Tbilisi on this issue
substantially differs from those of Baku and Yerevan. Georgia, which
is trying to become a member of NATO, a long-time dream of Tbilisi,
is trying its best to make U.S. soldiers feel comfortable on its
territory. Another manifestation of the close cooperation between
Georgia and the United States in the defense sector was the visit
of the ex-U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to Georgia which
began on the 21st of June. Rumsfeld has already met with the Minister
of Defence of Georgia, Bacho Akhalaia; they discussed the issues of
improving Georgia's defense and military education. The conversation
also touched on Georgia's participation in peace-making operations
in Afghanistan (ISAF) and the prospects of integration into NATO.
However, according to some analysts, the real purpose of this visit
is actually to discuss the probable involvement of Georgia in the
operation of neutralizing Iran.
In fact, the Pentagon has already established all the necessary
infrastructure for starting an operation against Iran on the territory
of Georgia. The most obvious and visible part of it is quite an
extended concrete six-lane freeway built with American funds as a
section of the road from Tbilisi to Poti. Given the sufficiently strong
foundation of the new road, as well as its location, the freeway, if
desired, and the Pentagon has such a desire, may serve as a runway for
US-NATO fighter jets if the Pentagon suddenly decides to bomb Iran's
nuclear facilities and more. Given the bad relations between Mikhail
Saakashvili and Vladimir Putin, who still doesn't pay any attention
to Mikheil Nikolozovich, the latter can do nothing but support his
satrap, i. e. the United States, which has an obvious interest in
the neutralization of Iran.
The situation with Armenia and Azerbaijan is a bit different. Yerevan
is connected to the Moscow Treaty on Strategic Partnership, the
majority of the strategically-important faclities are either in the
ownership or management of the concession of Russia. In Armenia,
there are such Russian companies as MTS, Gazprom, Rusal, railway
companies and Rosatom. In addition, it is Moscow that continues to
play the role of the main moderator of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
though within the framework of the Minsk Group. It is remarkable that
this occurs with the full consent of Armenia and the forced consent
of Azerbaijan, because there are too many third countries seeking to
participate in the settlement of the conflict. The 102nd military
base in Gyumri, equipped with the S-300, the most powerful systems
of air defense and military technologies, also takes an important
place in bilateral cooperation. The personnel of the base is about
5000 people. The centuries-old Armenian-Iranian relations are another
issue. The Islamic Republic has pretty strong ties with Armenia, both
in the political an the economic sphere. The latest manifestation
of the Islamic Republic's interest in the implementation of economic
projects in the country was an agreement on joint construction of the
Megri Hydro-electric Power Plant on the river Araks, separating Armenia
and Iran. The Megri HPP will be the largest hydropower project in the
Caucasus. Armenian-Iranian relations can be discussed a long time,
just as Armenian-Russian ones can be.
Meanwhile, in Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia are perceived in a somewhat
different perspective than in Armenia. However, this fact is not
surprising, given the strategic relations between Baku and Ankara. The
relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are a different topic, which is
rather confusing, because since 2012 these relations have significantly
aggravated. The formal reason was the close friendship of Baku with
Israel which, to put it mildly, Tehran does not really like. However,
Israeli politicians openly admit that the good relations between
Israel and Azerbaijan are a part of the Israeli concept of encircling
Iran, which Armenia does not fit for obvious reasons. The latest
manifestation of the Israeli-Azerbaijani friendship was an agreement to
supply Israeli weapons to Azerbaijan worth 1.6 billion dollars. It is
also noteworthy that 40% of oil imported to Israel is from Azerbaijan,
which has, moreover, quite a powerful lobby in Israel. Considering
all these factors, Tehran has voiced veiled threats against Baku at
the highest level many times, which will be implemented if the latter
dares to support the US-Israeli plans to neutralize the IRI. The latest
transaction of supplying Israeli weapons has caused a new round in the
"cold war" between Baku and Tehran. So the Azerbaijani authorities
are now facing a serious dilemma: supporting NATO's aggressive plans,
and thus becoming a rival of Iran, or supporting the peace-making
efforts of Moscow, thus antagonizing Washington.
Currently, the global confrontation with Iran has moved to the context
of the confrontation around the civil war in Syria. Today, the U.S.
and the Western world are trying their best to destroy the undesirable
for them but legitimate regime of Bashar al-Assad. Russia and China
consistently protect Assad by imposing a veto on the project of the
resolution on Syria in the UN Security Council. Based on this foreign
policy of Moscow, it is clear that the Kremlin is not going to allow
the implementation of a Libyan scenario in Syria, when after the
adoption of the UN Security Council resolution which was used for
bombing Libya the regime of Muammar Qaddafi was destroyed. Moscow
believes that Russia and the U.S. should use their power to
influence the Syrian authorities and the opposition and stop armed
confrontation. Today it is broadly understood that after the fall of
Syria and the departure of the Russians from Syria the next target
of the supporters of expanding "Peace and Democracy" will be Iran,
with its nuclear program. After that, the entire region, including
the countries of the South Caucasus, will plunge into chaos which
only American strategists dare to characterize as a managed one.
Based on the above, today the South Caucasus countries should
combine their efforts and support Moscow's efforts aimed at peace in
the region. The war in Syria, and in particular in Iran, would mean
millions of refugees and economic devastation in the region and all the
other "delights" that the Americans have brought to Iraq, Libya and
Afghanistan. For Georgia, which has frozen, unsolved conflicts with
Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and for Armenia and Azerbaijan
with their frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a war on their borders
could lead to really unpredictable consequences. Today no one can
predict how, for example, the Azeris living in northern Iran will
behave in this case, if they will migrate to Azerbaijan or Armenia
or prefer the contested Nagorno-Karabakh...
In order to determine their foreign policy priorities, the countries
of the Caucasus should just recall August 2008, when after a five-day
war Georgia was brought into a state of time pressure, and Armenia
and Azerbaijan have suffered losses of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Again, all this was the result of essentially a small local war
resulting from aggression against the small Ossetian people. It is
quite easy to understand what will happen to Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Georgia in case of further escalation of the aggression around Syria
and Iran. That is why all three South Caucasus countries, which are
all quite vulnerable, are interested in maintaining at least relative
peace and stability in the region. And now this peace and stability
can be guaranteed only by Russia, of course, with the support of China
and member countries of the Collective Security Treaty. The U.S. is
very far from the South Caucasus, both geographically and mentally,
to be seriously interested in the destiny of the peoples living in
this small region at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. And Russia,
which always supported our people, now needs at least small support
in the implementation of its plans for peace-keeping and relative
stability in the region more than ever.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress