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EurasiaNet.org, NY
March 4 2012
Talking Turkey in the South Caucasus
March 4, 2012 - 7:37am, by Elizabeth Owen
It's big, it's rich and it's near, so why isn't it more here? No, not
Russia, the leading lady of many a former South Caucasus drama, but
what some describe as a promising actor waiting in the wings --
Turkey.
At a March 2 conference in Tbilisi on "Turkey's South Caucasus Agenda:
Roles of State and Non-State Actors," sponsored by the Eurasia
Partnership Foundation and the Turkish Economic and Social Studies
Foundation (TESEV)*, academics, analysts, NGO-niks and retired
diplomats debated the likelihood of Turkey acquiring a more active
role in the region as a force for peace.
But don't expect Ankara to rush at the opportunity. As one Georgian
participant noted, there are more questions than answers about what
Turkey's role in the South Caucasus should be.
Right now, even while "looming large" over the region, "Turkey is
indeed pushing below its weight . . . politically," commented Peter
Semneby, the European Union's former special representative to the
South Caucasus.
The reasons are many -- the foreign-policy distractions of the Middle
East and Iran, coupled with the rise of nationalist tendencies in
Turkish domestic politics (and accompanying wariness about any further
outreach to Armenia), plus Ankara's desire not to irritate Russia,
which still sees the South Caucasus as its own backyard.
More mundane explanations also play a role; more than 20 years after
the fall of the Soviet Union, expertise in the South Caucasus still
runs relatively thin among Turks, noted TESEV Assistant Foreign Policy
Programme Officer Aybars Görgülü.
Overall, that means that though Ankara has given "hints" that it would
like to be involved in mediating resolutions to the conflicts over the
breakaway territories of Abkhazia, Nagorno Karabakh and South Ossetia,
said Sabine Freizer, the Istanbul-based Europe program director for
the International Crisis Group, it has not yet moved to take on that
role.
Turkish Ambassador to Georgia Levent Murat Burhan, meanwhile, stuck to
the diplomatic middle road. While calling the South Caucasus "a
priority area" in Turkey's "quest for peace and stability" in "its
entire neighborhood," he underlined that Ankara has "no intention of
replacing any other process" for finding a resolution to the region's
conflicts.
Nor of supplanting any other international player. "Without Russia's
active participation, it's very very difficult to resolve these
problems," Burhan said. He went on to term the European Union, one of
the most active international players in the South Caucasus, the
"number one candidate" for solving problems related to the three
conflicts.
"We need to have cooperation from all actors," he said. "If not, we
can't move forward."
Nonetheless, some observers see a way for Turkey itself to move matters forward.
Pascal Heyman, deputy director of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe's Conflict Prevention Center, called on Turkey
to come up with "new initiatives which complement the Geneva process
[international talks related to the 2008 Russia-Georgia war -- ed]"
and to find ways to engage with "the entities" (meaning Abkhazia and
South Ossetia) without recognizing them.
Aside from encouraging engagement, the International Crisis Group's
Freizer suggested that Turkey also pay attention to its potential
cultural role in the region, and make a point of defending regional
partners in international arenas such as the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization.
But lurking in the background is what TESEV's Görgülü called "a
missing link" for Turkey's South Caucasus policy -- Armenia.
While Burhan stressed that the normalization of ties with Yerevan "is
still on the table" for Ankara, he added that "we expect something to
be reciprocated . . . but so far we didn't see much in that respect."
A lack of progress on the normalization "track" can only mean a
similar lack of progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh talks between Armenia
and close Turkish ally, Azerbaijan, he contended.
Though not all conference participants agreed with that argument, none
expressed confidence that Turkey would ever join international
mediators for the Karabakh talks -- despite Azerbaijani hopes to the
contrary.
Nonetheless, Burhan asserted that "Turkey doesn't need
Turkish-Armenian normalization to show that we are looking for peace,
security and stability in our region."
But some conference participants maintain that peace, security and
stability begin at home. Said Diba Nigar Goksel, editor-in-chief of
the Turkish Policy Quarterly and Caucasus coordinator at the
non-profit European Stability Initiative, "We need to work on
ourselves a bit, too."
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
March 4 2012
Talking Turkey in the South Caucasus
March 4, 2012 - 7:37am, by Elizabeth Owen
It's big, it's rich and it's near, so why isn't it more here? No, not
Russia, the leading lady of many a former South Caucasus drama, but
what some describe as a promising actor waiting in the wings --
Turkey.
At a March 2 conference in Tbilisi on "Turkey's South Caucasus Agenda:
Roles of State and Non-State Actors," sponsored by the Eurasia
Partnership Foundation and the Turkish Economic and Social Studies
Foundation (TESEV)*, academics, analysts, NGO-niks and retired
diplomats debated the likelihood of Turkey acquiring a more active
role in the region as a force for peace.
But don't expect Ankara to rush at the opportunity. As one Georgian
participant noted, there are more questions than answers about what
Turkey's role in the South Caucasus should be.
Right now, even while "looming large" over the region, "Turkey is
indeed pushing below its weight . . . politically," commented Peter
Semneby, the European Union's former special representative to the
South Caucasus.
The reasons are many -- the foreign-policy distractions of the Middle
East and Iran, coupled with the rise of nationalist tendencies in
Turkish domestic politics (and accompanying wariness about any further
outreach to Armenia), plus Ankara's desire not to irritate Russia,
which still sees the South Caucasus as its own backyard.
More mundane explanations also play a role; more than 20 years after
the fall of the Soviet Union, expertise in the South Caucasus still
runs relatively thin among Turks, noted TESEV Assistant Foreign Policy
Programme Officer Aybars Görgülü.
Overall, that means that though Ankara has given "hints" that it would
like to be involved in mediating resolutions to the conflicts over the
breakaway territories of Abkhazia, Nagorno Karabakh and South Ossetia,
said Sabine Freizer, the Istanbul-based Europe program director for
the International Crisis Group, it has not yet moved to take on that
role.
Turkish Ambassador to Georgia Levent Murat Burhan, meanwhile, stuck to
the diplomatic middle road. While calling the South Caucasus "a
priority area" in Turkey's "quest for peace and stability" in "its
entire neighborhood," he underlined that Ankara has "no intention of
replacing any other process" for finding a resolution to the region's
conflicts.
Nor of supplanting any other international player. "Without Russia's
active participation, it's very very difficult to resolve these
problems," Burhan said. He went on to term the European Union, one of
the most active international players in the South Caucasus, the
"number one candidate" for solving problems related to the three
conflicts.
"We need to have cooperation from all actors," he said. "If not, we
can't move forward."
Nonetheless, some observers see a way for Turkey itself to move matters forward.
Pascal Heyman, deputy director of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe's Conflict Prevention Center, called on Turkey
to come up with "new initiatives which complement the Geneva process
[international talks related to the 2008 Russia-Georgia war -- ed]"
and to find ways to engage with "the entities" (meaning Abkhazia and
South Ossetia) without recognizing them.
Aside from encouraging engagement, the International Crisis Group's
Freizer suggested that Turkey also pay attention to its potential
cultural role in the region, and make a point of defending regional
partners in international arenas such as the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization.
But lurking in the background is what TESEV's Görgülü called "a
missing link" for Turkey's South Caucasus policy -- Armenia.
While Burhan stressed that the normalization of ties with Yerevan "is
still on the table" for Ankara, he added that "we expect something to
be reciprocated . . . but so far we didn't see much in that respect."
A lack of progress on the normalization "track" can only mean a
similar lack of progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh talks between Armenia
and close Turkish ally, Azerbaijan, he contended.
Though not all conference participants agreed with that argument, none
expressed confidence that Turkey would ever join international
mediators for the Karabakh talks -- despite Azerbaijani hopes to the
contrary.
Nonetheless, Burhan asserted that "Turkey doesn't need
Turkish-Armenian normalization to show that we are looking for peace,
security and stability in our region."
But some conference participants maintain that peace, security and
stability begin at home. Said Diba Nigar Goksel, editor-in-chief of
the Turkish Policy Quarterly and Caucasus coordinator at the
non-profit European Stability Initiative, "We need to work on
ourselves a bit, too."
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress