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BAKU: Turkey-Iran Relationship Becomes 'More Competitive'

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  • BAKU: Turkey-Iran Relationship Becomes 'More Competitive'

    TURKEY-IRAN RELATIONSHIP BECOMES 'MORE COMPETITIVE'

    News.Az
    Mon 05 March 2012 13:13 GMT | 13:13 Local Time

    News.Az interviews Nigar Goksel, senior analyst at the European
    Stability Initiative (ESI) and editor-in-chief of Turkish Policy
    Quarterly.

    What is Turkey's attitude to the Iran issue?

    It's clear that Turkey and Iran have taken on a more competitive
    relationship in the past year, let's say, compared to the period
    between 2005 and 2010. I would say a few years ago Iran and Turkey
    seemed to be on the same page when it comes to certain issues in
    the region, the larger region as well, ensuring that the West is not
    too influential in their neighbourhood. Now we can see an increasing
    conflict of interests, with regard to the NATO missile defence shield,
    with regard to Syria, with regard to the nuclear program that Iran
    is allegedly developing.

    So the Turkish government that has been on the side of the Syrian
    people, on the side of the NATO alliance and whatnot, I think has made
    it very clear that it's not a win-win relationship at certain levels
    but a zero-sum relationship. That changes the nature of the way the
    two countries relate to each other. That being said, publically both
    countries are being very cautious about expressing any rivalry, let
    alone antagonism. They are both containing the negative developments
    and portraying relative collaboration. So it's still rather behind
    the scenes, let's say. But certainly one can say that the last year
    has put Turkey and Iran against each other on certain very concrete
    points that are existential but quite important for both of them.

    On 7 March, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan are
    going to meet in Nakhchivan. This is the third meeting in this format.

    What do you think about the prospects of this triangular format for
    tackling regional problems?

    Iran and Azerbaijan have their own challenges in their relationship,
    Turkey and Iran likewise, as we just mentioned. I think it's a good
    thing that the three of them will sit together and talk about their
    different approaches and the challenges in their relationship. I doubt
    that too many ground-breaking new paradigms will come out of that kind
    of a triangular discussion, but I think in terms of alleviating the
    tensions, ensuring that a negative spiral doesn't come about because
    there have been tensions in recent days between Azerbaijan and Iran
    as well over Israel. I think it's good to sit together and talk, as
    opposed to watching the public debates increasingly reflect a dramatic
    tone. As I said, I wouldn't expect an alliance of any kind to come
    about, but it's better to defuse tension in a joint discussion,
    as opposed to exchanging harsh rhetoric about each other in the
    press. So I think it's probably a good thing that it is taking place,
    though I don't have very high expectations.

    What should Turkey do to prevent the new French leadership, the one
    voted in at the elections, adopting a new resolution on the so-called
    genocide?

    France already has a recognition law, but the risk now is that it
    will have a resolution that criminalizes denial of the word genocide
    to depict the 1915 events. I think Turkey has made it very clear how
    critical this is for Turkey's national interests and for French-Turkish
    relations and, in fact, Turkey- EU relations. At the public level
    particularly, the Turkish public, I think, lashes out. It doesn't
    really separate France from the EU at some level. It becomes more
    anti-Western when these kinds of things are cooked up in any one of
    the EU member states. It's going to be tricky in that it really might
    be rejuvenated, the same bill, so this relief that has now set in in
    Turkey about averting this risk through the Constitutional Commission's
    cancellation of it, I think this relief might be short-lived.

    I think Turkey has done a lot of positive, constructive, effective
    lobbying: they used French universities based in Istanbul, French
    business groups that were active in Turkey and a lot of different
    levels of society to counter this bill.

    In that sense, I think it's been a success from Turkey's point
    of view. But instead of this crisis management and putting so
    much attention and money into something when it flares up, what
    Turkey of course needs to do is to have more consistent engagement
    about this issue in France and in all other European countries as
    well. It shouldn't be an initiative only worked on when the risk is
    at the doorstep. I think Turkey is laying down groundwork to do so,
    particularly as 2015 approaches - I think there will be more effective
    Turkish approaches that will be laid out.

    Engaging the diaspora in France is also necessary, because at some
    level, if you're constantly in combat with each other, then one day
    one will win and one day the other will win. We need a long-term
    solution and that needs to involve both compromises from the Turkish
    side, obviously, and hopefully the involvement of a more mainstream,
    more constructive, group in the diaspora of Armenia as well. We hear
    the most vocal, most negative diaspora quite loudly, but it's also
    important to realize that the entire Armenian diaspora doesn't feel
    the same way or doesn't want the same aggressive ends. It's important
    to bring into the process more moderate voices from among the Armenian
    diaspora as well.

    Of course, Turkey needs to demonstrate that it's allowing full freedom
    of speech in Turkey for Turkey to be able to claim to France that
    repression of freedom of speech on this issue is immoral or unethical
    and wrong. Turkey has to make sure that there's nobody in Turkey that's
    undergoing a court case for calling 1915 a genocide. There are actually
    a couple of cases where that has taken place. So Turkey maybe should
    set a very high standard and hope that France follows that standard.

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